Paddy, O'Malley & Allen FTWs + All my bets tonight

[Chaotic Progressor]

I think probably more likely Paddy by sub, but after how easily he dealt with Chandler - and giving the frames and movements are similar - I feel this fight will be similar.

Given how improved his striking looked v Chandler - much better in-and-out, leg kicks, variety of strikes, different angles.

Can just see Paddy just being too sharp and using his range, catching Justin; that could then just lead to a sub though, so I think it's 50/50 with sub or knockout. But obviously the knockout is bigger $ so hoping for that. Justin is 38, recently KO'd, last leg of his career, one foot out the door - smaller, in frame and reach; easily submitted v. a high level grappler @ Paddy; Paddy is bigger, longer, faster, younger, slicker striker... and can submit him easily.

Justin could of course catch him, but I think people aren't emphasizing enough how big for LW Paddy is, and people may be suprised by how he absorbs some of Justin's shots.

£10 on O'Malley straight win - could see him bopping Yadong's head more often, more accurately and moving about. May not be a knockout but probably a comfortable dec. win.



£5 - Paddy for the win
£10 - Paddy for the KO

+ Added £5 Paddy by KO or Sub:



I know sub is more likely but I'm going for the TKO, but the small TKO or Sub gives a little insurance on the sub + the straight win, or adds to the knockout.

All other bets

£3 on All Main Card fights inside the distance:



£2 on All Main Cards to end via knockout:



£10 Treble Multi on Allen, O'Malley & Pimblett for the wins:



£5 5x Multi on Umar, Allen, Rose, O'Malley & Pimblett for the wins:



£5 single on Rose:



£5 single on Allen:



£5 for Paddy in Round 2:



£5 on Derrick Lewis knockout or sub:



> Obviously if Lewis wins it'll be by knockout, but the odds were the same to cover both, so no point leaving it out the equation for no reason/same return.

+

£2 on either Paddy or Justin to win by knockout in the last 30 seconds of Round 5 (75 to 1) / just in case we see a last minute ditch attempt rally from Justin to claw the win, or Paddy to seal it.

 

[Why did you]

more likely peddy by sub , but anyhow, Sean is on a t. ferguson path

 

[Mr.Maelstrom]

I'm familiar with your work, Chao Prog

Post in thread '£100 total on Jake Paul for the win, and KO'

Dec 16, 2025

are you kidding? it's easy as hell, the nose is right there, it depends a ton on the structure of a guys nose. Back in the early days of boxing, white guys commonly had smashed in noses because they typically have longer noses. Guys like Ali or Sugar ray leonard are fortunate that they have noses that don't protrude much but guys like Tommy hearns got his nose broke on his first day in the gym and it's still mishapen.

punches don't always land clean and a glancing punch that just catches and slides of the face can break the nose, that's more or less what happened to me...

• Chaotic Progressor

• 

Post in thread 'Picking DDP, going against my heart'

Aug 16, 2025

My head thinks DDP should win -- he's bigger, more experienced dealing with big guys at this weight class, good conditioning, and more well rounded. On the mats, despite Khamzat being very, very dominant, he only really finishes from the front headlock position with d'arces, or with the rear naked chin. I've seen guys like Maia, Jacare, and werdum be stalled out for several rounds on the mat in MMA by guys that couldn't sniff their jockstraps in submission grappling. I'd like to think that DDP is good enough to be able to survive the first bursts of energy from chimaev and the...

• Chaotic Progressor

• 

Post in thread 'Prepare for The Rabbit to go to sleep'

Jul 19, 2025

Don't forget to report back when Usyk gets knocked out boys

• Chaotic Progressor

 

[Jawth]

Justin is significantly better than Mike. If Paddy does run through him I will be legitimately impressed.

 

[Gabe]

I like Song here, O’Malley is a streamer now and I don’t think he’s in the state of mind to stop Song who is in his prime.

 

[Chaotic Progressor]

I like Song here, O’Malley is a streamer now and I don’t think he’s in the state of mind to stop Song who is in his prime.

May not stop him, but, I can see him piecing him up more than Song does him. I think a dec. win for Sean.

 

[Evbo]

I'd go for Song by D and Paddy by Sub personally

 

[Shaolin Alan]

Song knocks the pink from O’Malley pubes

 

[doozer]

Going with Justin. Paddy’s size, power, durability and especially youth do concern me, but paddy is very hittable. Paddy has great jujitsu but not great wrestling, Justin is very good at keeping fights on the feet. He might be about to hold Justin down with his jujitsu so he might nullify Justin’s ability to stand up but he still needs to get him there.

I think this fight might be stylistically perfect for Justin. Someone who might not be able to take him down like Khabib or pick him apart like Holloway, and he doesn’t have the same striking skills as prime Dustin or Alvarez. And Justin’s technique has improved since then. The real question is whether Justin has diminished enough in his old age that paddy can beat him at his own game.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Got to start small before you start betting all your houses...

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

I like Song here, O’Malley is a streamer now and I don’t think he’s in the state of mind to stop Song who is in his prime.

lol this is such a silly shit outlook. Fighters do things other than train, shocking I know. You can't train 24/7

 

[Uber_Noober]

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

In how 31 mma fights Justin G has been knocked out only 3 times. Max holloway, Dustin Poirer, and Eddie Alvarez

I just don’t think paddy has power like that

 

[jeff7b9]

I think probably more likely Paddy by sub, but, after how easily he dealt with Chandler - and giving the frames and movements are similar, I feel this fight will be similar; Justin is a better Chandler, basically, but, only in that he seems to hit harder and is a bit bigger for the weight. But, he gets hit just as much if not more, as Paddy recently said 'he takes 4 to give 1'.

Never used to be able to stand Paddy personally, but rergardless, given how improved his striking looked v Chandler - much better in-and-out; hopping in and out movement; leg kicks, variety of strikes, different angles. He still gets hit himself, but his defence was better than when he used to run at guys bascially begging for his chin to be smashed.

Can just see Paddy being a bit more disciplined and using his range, leg kicks and catching Justin and jumping on him. That could then just lead to a sub though, so I think it's 50/50 with sub or knockout, but obviously the knockout is bigger $ so hoping for that. Plus then we have the fact Justin is 38, Paddy is in his athletic prime still pretty much, on the come up, getting better, Justin is hand-picking fights and entering middle-age, of course he could still catch Paddy but can't see him winning this.

Can't bet much, but even a few bucks adds a little fun...

View attachment 1130224

£5 - Paddy for the win
£10 - Paddy for the KO

And then £10 for the O'Malley win. I think he's too fast, accurate and busy for Song. Can see him piecing him up a fair bit as Song looks for less shots, plus with Sean coming off back to back losses but still young, hungry and humbling himself going to a co-main already... he seems in a good place mentally and has something to prove; probably a pretty dominant decision win, maybe a stoppage for Sean IMO.

Not a gambler here but I would venture to say that a smart bet would be

Paddy &/or OMalley by KO


If just for the likelihood of a "winner by knockdown" scenario


Let's be honest.

Either of them rocks their opponent the ref will step in and I know Goddard is on one of those fights and he is dependable with the early stops.

 

[jeff7b9]

I'm familiar with your work, Chao Prog

Post in thread '£100 total on Jake Paul for the win, and KO'

Dec 16, 2025

are you kidding? it's easy as hell, the nose is right there, it depends a ton on the structure of a guys nose. Back in the early days of boxing, white guys commonly had smashed in noses because they typically have longer noses. Guys like Ali or Sugar ray leonard are fortunate that they have noses that don't protrude much but guys like Tommy hearns got his nose broke on his first day in the gym and it's still mishapen.

punches don't always land clean and a glancing punch that just catches and slides of the face can break the nose, that's more or less what happened to me...

• Chaotic Progressor

• 

Post in thread 'Picking DDP, going against my heart'

Aug 16, 2025

My head thinks DDP should win -- he's bigger, more experienced dealing with big guys at this weight class, good conditioning, and more well rounded. On the mats, despite Khamzat being very, very dominant, he only really finishes from the front headlock position with d'arces, or with the rear naked chin. I've seen guys like Maia, Jacare, and werdum be stalled out for several rounds on the mat in MMA by guys that couldn't sniff their jockstraps in submission grappling. I'd like to think that DDP is good enough to be able to survive the first bursts of energy from chimaev and the...

• Chaotic Progressor

• 

Post in thread 'Prepare for The Rabbit to go to sleep'

Jul 19, 2025

Don't forget to report back when Usyk gets knocked out boys

• Chaotic Progressor

Oh snap.

You got the receipts.

 

[KO Shotz]

Paddy by sub & Suga via KO

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Not a gambler here but I would venture to say that a smart bet would be

Paddy &/or OMalley by KO


If just for the likelihood of a "winner by knockdown" scenario


Let's be honest.

Either of them rocks their opponent the ref will step in and I know Goddard is on one of those fights and he is dependable with the early stops.

From a betting perspective there’s definitely better options on the card in my opinion.

Neither of the guys being fought here get kod often. Like yadong only has 2 ko losses out of 30 fights.

I much prefer getting paid 3x money on something like black beast getting a ko.

If I bet 100 and sean kos song you make $50

If I bet 100 and black beast wins you get $160 and he’s the all time leading ko artist in the history of the ufc and the other guy plans to strike w em.

I mean….. idk man. I think people are buying into the ufc trailers a bit too much with sean. He’s like an adesanya he gets 1 really good looking ko and they play it a million times. Meanwhile BB makes it nasty and it don’t look cute on a trailer with his rolls, panicked face, and arms swinging like a wild man but he gets the job done.

 

[linvillegorge]

In how 31 mma fights Justin G has been knocked out only 3 times. Max holloway, Dustin Poirer, and Eddie Alvarez

I just don’t think paddy has power like that

Not just that, but all three of those fights were sustained beatings. Not like he got one shot killed in the 1st round. With that said, I think Gaethje's chin has been showing wear and tear for awhile now.

 

[jeff7b9]

From a betting perspective there’s definitely better options on the card in my opinion.

Neither of the guys being fought here get kod often. Like yadong only has 2 ko losses out of 30 fights.

I much prefer getting paid 3x money on something like black beast getting a ko.

If I bet 100 and sean kos song you make $50

If I bet 100 and black beast wins you get $160 and he’s the all time leading ko artist in the history of the ufc and the other guy plans to strike w em.

I mean….. idk man. I think people are buying into the ufc trailers a bit too much with sean. He’s like an adesanya he gets 1 really good looking ko and they play it a million times. Meanwhile BB makes it nasty and it don’t look cute on a trailer with his rolls, panicked face, and arms swinging like a wild man but he gets the job done.

As I said i am not a gambler...

My point was that the way the UFC and the refs have seemed to work, the threshold for a stoppage seems to vary quite a bit based on the UFCs desire to squeeze money out of a fighter.

Paddy and OMalley are close to the top of the list in terms of "Dana White privilege"

We have seen clear as day examples, as both of these guys have "wins" where the majority of fans and pundits do not believe they won

Paddy vs Gordon
Poodle vs Yan


Gaethje doesn't need to get knocked out for Paddy via KO to payout

And OMalley already has a "KO" where (I think it was herb dean) stopped a fight with his opponent still standing

 

[swarrrm]

I could see Paddy getting a gnp TKO stoppage. Good luck!