ONE Championship, betting thread, One FC

@Stat_Collector I trust you with wrestling. What do you think of this Batradz Gazzaev character who's fighting Reug Reug. Looks like two guys who both enjoy being the hammer to me. Reug Reug is a pretty massive underdog. Batradz seems to have a wrestling background but I can't find much to suggest his pedigree is anything special. He's getting guys to the ground in the fights I've seen but their TDD is absolute dogshit and he looks like he just shoots basic doubles to me.
Im on Reug Reug, he is bigger height and mass. Gazz isn't some russian Brock Lesnar type, he's a mid level i would say solid wrestler but not a good wrestler, he got beat in the wrestling match i saw by a large margin and looked fatigued. He also started mma last year, all three fights were in 2021. Reug first fight in 2019, tells me he is the more experience mma fighter. On the feet Reug looks more comfortable exchanging strikes too, Gazz looks very green, looks like he wants no part of the standup game. Yeah i think the odds should be flipped. The bookies are looking at this guy like he's a big scary russian Lesnar, but i know he isn't that guy. I'll tail you here, i think he gets it done, quarter unit 250$ for me.
 
Reug reug +275 strikes me as insane value.
@Stat_Collector I trust you with wrestling. What do you think of this Batradz Gazzaev character who's fighting Reug Reug. Looks like two guys who both enjoy being the hammer to me. Reug Reug is a pretty massive underdog. Batradz seems to have a wrestling background but I can't find much to suggest his pedigree is anything special. He's getting guys to the ground in the fights I've seen but their TDD is absolute dogshit and he looks like he just shoots basic doubles to me.

i hoped you all played Raug Raug. good stuff. glad you brought him up. Cashed.
 
Just have this to say: when I see certain long time posters here say “insane value” I bet accordingly

Trey Williams was a 6 unit play for me. @BigSteve puts 1 unit on him. I understand youre being conservative because you depend on this money to pay bills, but you have to start hitting value like that harder than 1 unit.

I risked a little over 3 units today to win 10.

you guys have to start hitting these dogs/+ money props harder. Trust your handicap and what you think the odds should be. If you think you have a big edge on the books you need to hammer that line accordingly

you are going to lose bets. You are going to have losing events. I wouldn’t have cared much if that three unit bet lost today. I wouldn’t have cared much about trey Williams losing. When you are hitting value plus money odds it isn’t going to matter much because when one does cash your roi is excellent

I’m not winning 20-30 units a week on ml bets. It’s really been because I’ve bet hitting ml bets and props to back them up. Guessing the winner and method of victory etc

I’m winning 100 units in a month and see sharp guys like @BigSteve coming away with 5 it’s a bit perplexing. I want everyone to cash big. You of all people should’ve cashed big on that
 
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Also we have some really solid cappers contributing right now. The best we’ve had in a while. I have no idea how you guys have time to research all this stuff but I’m thankful for it.
lol no job, i'm paying all my bills with mma betting. i'm doing spread sheets for next weeks event.

Just have this to say: when I see certain long time posters here say “insane value” I bet accordingly

Trey Williams was a 6 unit play for me. @BigSteve puts 1 unit on him. I understand youre being conservative because you depend on this money to pay bills, but you have to start hitting value like that harder than 1 unit.

I risked a little over 3 units today to win 10.

you guys have to start hitting these dogs/+ money props harder. Trust your handicap and what you think the odds should be. If you think you have a big edge on the books you need to hammer that line accordingly

you are going to lose bets. You are going to have losing events. I wouldn’t have cared much if that three unit bet lost today. I wouldn’t have cared much about trey Williams losing. When you are hitting value plus money odds it isn’t going to matter much because when one does cash your roi is excellent

I’m not winning 20-30 units a week on ml bets. It’s really been because I’ve bet hitting ml bets and props to back them up. Guessing the winner and method of victory etc

I’m winning 100 units in a month and see sharp guys like @BigSteve coming away with 5 it’s a bit perplexing. I want everyone to cash big. You of all people should’ve cashed big on that
I flew all the way to las vegas to play williams, and could not find a casino that had cage warriors. limited betting is my excuse. I bet 500 made like 1400$ on betonline.ag cause that was all i had. If i could bet 7k to make 12k( which was my plan) i would have done so. By the time i got off the plane Trey was a 110+ underdog. I basically ate away my profits on that trip cause no action. Vegas is literally just bellator and ufc events only.



i don't know what you mean by unit. Do you mean 1k or 100? cause i read unit size is relevant to your bankroll. so i'm curious how much did you bet on Trey Williams and how and where did you bet? are you in a state where you have lots of sites like betway to your advantage?
 
lol no job, i'm paying all my bills with mma betting. i'm doing spread sheets for next weeks event.


I flew all the way to las vegas to play williams, and could not find a casino that had cage warriors. limited betting is my excuse. I bet 500 made like 1400$ on betonline.ag cause that was all i had. If i could bet 7k to make 12k( which was my plan) i would have done so. By the time i got off the plane Trey was a 110+ underdog. I basically ate away my profits on that trip cause no action. Vegas is literally just bellator and ufc events only.



i don't know what you mean by unit. Do you mean 1k or 100? cause i read unit size is relevant to your bankroll. so i'm curious how much did you bet on Trey Williams and how and where did you bet? are you in a state where you have lots of sites like betway to your advantage?
$600, bol

$100 unit. I should have a higher unit size but with the way I play right now it works for me. I’ve come to realize that +props are my bread and butter.

I surely don’t want to be dropping 1-5k on a prop. I rarely have that much on a moneyline. I have a full time job, my own company and 2 kids under 3. I don’t really like having large amounts of money on the line.

I’m in Maryland and don’t have access to many books.

I also have a very large amount of money (for me anyway) invested in the stock market right now. Enough to where I’ve stretched myself thin and feel overexposed. That’s another reason I keep my unit size at $100

once my account goes over 10-12k I take out 5k. That’s the way I’ve been rolling. It’s working for me. Eventually I could see myself increasing my unit size and have taken some steps to potentially take betting more seriously and take this to the next level.

If this stock play pans out I will absolutely take the next step towards doing this full time
 
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$600, bol

$100 unit. I should have a higher unit size but with the way I play right now it works for me. I’ve come to realize that +props are my bread and butter.

I surely don’t want to be dropping 1-5k on a prop. I rarely have that much on a moneyline. I have a full time job, my own company and 2 kids under 3. I don’t really like having large amounts of money on the line.

I’m in Maryland and don’t have access to many books.

I also have a very large amount of money (for me anyway) invested in the stock market right now. Enough to where I’ve stretched myself thin and feel overexposed. That’s another reason I keep my unit size at $100

once my account goes over 10-12k I take out 5k. That’s the way I’ve been rolling. It’s working for me. Eventually I could see myself increasing my unit size and have taken some steps to potentially take betting more seriously and take this to the next level.

If this stock play pans out I will absolutely take the next step towards doing this full time
completely understand, i dont have kids so i would not bet 1k so freely. i still get nervous when i bet 500 $ but that’s what i mean we are all restricted badly. i sincerely believe betting limits prevent me from reaching six figures. so many times i saw a sure thing and would have bet 10k but the limited resources keep me at earning over 1k-2kmax for single bets. why i widely resort to parlays . its the only game in town that can net me over 10k in one event. i agree we slowly getting to all states full legalization. Sports betting is bigger than ever.
 
Nice I was at Fremont Sunday night. Vegas not good for anything aside from UFC betting. Other MMA odds are hard to find. I had a little luck with Will Hill having bellator.
i was there wednesday left on friday. i walked around. i think it was also fremont. they call it old vegas. i was at the plaza hotel. i fked around and had some fun. the girls were fire, cool place but did not want to stay long, had i won big , would have stayed till this saturday and indulged the city.
 
Just have this to say: when I see certain long time posters here say “insane value” I bet accordingly

Trey Williams was a 6 unit play for me. @BigSteve puts 1 unit on him. I understand youre being conservative because you depend on this money to pay bills, but you have to start hitting value like that harder than 1 unit.

I risked a little over 3 units today to win 10.

you guys have to start hitting these dogs/+ money props harder. Trust your handicap and what you think the odds should be. If you think you have a big edge on the books you need to hammer that line accordingly

you are going to lose bets. You are going to have losing events. I wouldn’t have cared much if that three unit bet lost today. I wouldn’t have cared much about trey Williams losing. When you are hitting value plus money odds it isn’t going to matter much because when one does cash your roi is excellent

I’m not winning 20-30 units a week on ml bets. It’s really been because I’ve bet hitting ml bets and props to back them up. Guessing the winner and method of victory etc

I’m winning 100 units in a month and see sharp guys like @BigSteve coming away with 5 it’s a bit perplexing. I want everyone to cash big. You of all people should’ve cashed big on that
1.5U*, I did well by my standards in this case lol. I used to bet the same way as you my friend, back when my units were 200 and even 400. My best year, before this one, was 2020. I would make 11 units in one event etc. Every semi-confident play was automatically 2u. There was no half or quarter-unit bullshit. When you have like 15k in your bankroll, you are just throwing multiple $200 units on everything. But that's the time to increase your staking. I never liked being stagnant with my betting. It appears you should have increased your unit size a long time ago. When you start casually throwing 5u on a 3.30 dog, which in some common circles is a 'max bet', without any repercussions of losing it, then it's time to increase. Really you probably should be on 500 unit sizes, and you should have put 1k on him ( 2u ). I am not certain about your bankroll but you seem to be going well recently.

I know the whole point of units is so you treat them just as that, units and not piles of cash. But it's a whole other ball game when your units are 1,000 and you have to put 2 or 3k on a low lvl underdog on regionals. Especially in my case where I rushed my jump from 600 to 800, and then instantly again to 1k units because I'm full time and I had a big bankroll. @Sadistics has informed me that it's very common for gamblers to get a lil more cautious with full time and once they get to 1k, but it's getting better. If anything, it makes you a more disciplined gambler, which I never was at 400 units or less. It makes you actually respect your bankroll, and you only risk it on good bets or solid value. I do appreciate the advice, and no doubt I am still working on my staking and other aspects of my gambling every day. Ultimately, I feel like you currently bet like myself when I first started back in 2019.
 
1.5U*, I did well by my standards in this case lol. I used to bet the same way as you my friend, back when my units were 200 and even 400. My best year, before this one, was 2020. I would make 11 units in one event etc. Every semi-confident play was automatically 2u. There was no half or quarter-unit bullshit. When you have like 15k in your bankroll, you are just throwing multiple $200 units on everything. But that's the time to increase your staking. I never liked being stagnant with my betting. It appears you should have increased your unit size a long time ago. When you start casually throwing 5u on a 3.30 dog, which in some common circles is a 'max bet', without any repercussions of losing it, then it's time to increase. Really you probably should be on 500 unit sizes, and you should have put 1k on him ( 2u ). I am not certain about your bankroll but you seem to be going well recently.

I know the whole point of units is so you treat them just as that, units and not piles of cash. But it's a whole other ball game when your units are 1,000 and you have to put 2 or 3k on a low lvl underdog on regionals. Especially in my case where I rushed my jump from 600 to 800, and then instantly again to 1k units because I'm full time and I had a big bankroll. @Sadistics has informed me that it's very common for gamblers to get a lil more cautious with full time and once they get to 1k, but it's getting better. If anything, it makes you a more disciplined gambler, which I never was at 400 units or less. It makes you actually respect your bankroll, and you only risk it on good bets or solid value. I do appreciate the advice, and no doubt I am still working on my staking and other aspects of my gambling every day. Ultimately, I feel like you currently bet like myself when I first started back in 2019.
I totally get it. I’m sure I wouldn’t be throwing units around if it was my main source of income. It is fun betting this way and I do this mostly because I enjoy it

I’m just thinking to myself I’m winning 15 units off this play while the guy who gave it to me is winning 3-4. Feel kind of dirty lol

And my max bet is loose. Even in Kelly criterion it says basically to hammer value when you see it and 5 units is just a reference point for a max bet and there are scenarios where you should go bigger

I have a bunch of money on dern props. Much more than 5 units. Ml bets however I stick more to the 5 unit rule.

when there’s something I really like/see value I’m hitting it.
 
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imagine if you won 5u, at $500 a pop :O
Yea it puts it in perspective.
But I still think you should be going bigger when you see 20%+ implied probability errors with the books. Make them pay.

I rarely see you go over a unit or even a full unit

But like you said you’re being cautious. First year pro. Large unit size. It will come

I feel like you should’ve blown past the 50k mark this year. I want to see you win 100k
 
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