Objective Comparison To Title Shot Path - Paddy Vs The Last Few Challengers at 155

[Zebra Cheeks]

This is not intended to be a crap on Paddy festival. Im writing this intro before even digging into the data. My goal here to simply seek out the truth behind quality of competition to see if were being biased in saying Paddy has had an easy path to the title, or, provide objective evidence that clearly shows why/how much so and compares it directly to other fighters.

First we will look at the last 2 fighters to earn a title shot in the same division, and were going to weight the quality of their last 5 opponents based on those opponents 10 most recent ufc results. Were not going to dive into rankings etc because of time and effort. But I figure this should provide a surface level snapshot. This is sorted in chronological order, and last, we will review Paddy. Im counting the 10 fights prior to the title shot - so for example I would count for Max Holloway down to B Ortega and would not include the Dustin win as it occured after the title shot.

1. Ilia Topouira -
Last 5 opponents
Max Holloway 6-4
Alexander Volkanovski 8-2
Josh Emmett 7-3
Bryce Mitchel 10-0
Jai Herbert 7-3
Combined Record = 38 Wins & 12 Losses = 76%

2. Renato Moicano -
Last 5 opponents
Benoit St Denis 8-2
Jalin Turner 7-3
Drew Dober 7-3
Brad Riddell 7-3
Rafael Dos Anjos 5-5
Combined Record = 34 Wins & 16 Losses = 68%

Paddy
Last 5
Jordan Leavitt 7-3
Michael Chandler 5-5
Bobby Green 5-4-1
The Ghost of Tony Ferguson 4-6
Jared Gordon 5-5
Combined Record 26 Wins & 23 Losses (1 NC)= 53.06%

So objectively based on the quality of opponents theres a 23% dropoff from Ilia, and nearly a 15% dropoff from Renato. Admittedly, Illia may be getting a small boost as bryce had not had 10 full fights in the UFC, but, due to not having lost prior to fighting him his win quality was a bit higher than some of the others on the resume. If you did not count those wins, that would be -3 wins via bryces record.

 

[oski]

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

View attachment 1130495

Great point - but then you end in a circle of "if the rankings are BS does it matter" where as this gives a pretty good idea of how the opponents may directly measure up. Thats pretty wild though

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Justin Gaethje has a horse shoe up his a**

 

[Get To Da Choppa]

This is not intended to be a crap on Paddy festival. Im writing this intro before even digging into the data. My goal here to simply seek out the truth behind quality of competition to see if were being biased in saying Paddy has had an easy path to the title, or, provide objective evidence that clearly shows why/how much so and compares it directly to other fighters.

First we will look at the last 2 fighters to earn a title shot in the same division, and were going to weight the quality of their last 5 opponents based on those opponents 10 most recent ufc results. Were not going to dive into rankings etc because of time and effort. But I figure this should provide a surface level snapshot. This is sorted in chronological order, and last, we will review Paddy. Im counting the 10 fights prior to the title shot - so for example I would count for Max Holloway down to B Ortega and would not include the Dustin win as it occured after the title shot.

1. Ilia Topouira -
Last 5 opponents
Max Holloway 6-4
Alexander Volkanovski 8-2
Josh Emmett 7-3
Bryce Mitchel 10-0
Jai Herbert 7-3
Combined Record = 38 Wins & 12 Losses = 76%

2. Renato Moicano -
Last 5 opponents
Benoit St Denis 8-2
Jalin Turner 7-3
Drew Dober 7-3
Brad Riddell 7-3
Rafael Dos Anjos 5-5
Combined Record = 34 Wins & 16 Losses = 68%

Paddy
Last 5
Jordan Leavitt 7-3
Michael Chandler 5-5
Bobby Green 5-4-1
The Ghost of Tony Ferguson 4-6
Jared Gordon 5-5
Combined Record 26 Wins & 23 Losses (1 NC)= 53.06%

So objectively based on the quality of opponents theres a 23% dropoff from Ilia, and nearly a 15% dropoff from Renato. Admittedly, Illia may be getting a small boost as bryce had not had 10 full fights in the UFC, but, due to not having lost prior to fighting him his win quality was a bit higher than some of the others on the resume. If you did not count those wins, that would be -3 wins via bryces record.

Even though Jordan Leavitt has a better record than Max Holloway, does anyone think Leavitt's past 10 fights were even comparable to Max's?

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Even though Jordan Leavitt has a better record than Max Holloway, does anyone think Leavitt's past 10 fights were even comparable to Max's?

no but im trying to strictly base it on objective evidence but no I dont think thats even close

 

[markg171]

Now do Justin Gaethje

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Now do Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje
last 5 opponents
Fizzy 2 7-3
Max Holloway 6-4
Dustin Poirer 8-2
Fizeiv 1 - 9-1
Charles Oliviera 10-0
Total - Wins 40 Losses 10 - 80% winrate

in hind sight that 3 opponent run of Charles, Fizz, and Dustin on those winstreaks is insane

 

[markg171]

Justin Gaethje
last 5 opponents
Fizzy 2 7-3
Max Holloway 6-4
Dustin Poirer 8-2
Fizeiv 1 - 9-1
Charles Oliviera 10-0
Total - Wins 40 Losses 10 - 80% winrate

in hind sight that 3 opponent run of Charles, Fizz, and Dustin on those winstreaks is insane

You left out the part where Justin was brutally finished in 2 of those, by guys he's leapfrogging here.

Justin is the undeserving title challenger, not Paddy.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

You left out the part where Justin was brutally finished in 2 of those, by guys he's leapfrogging here.

Justin is the undeserving title challenger, not Paddy.

Im willing to bet quite adamantly that there are very few if any fighters at 155 that facing the killers row would sustain a 5 fight win streak apart from Islam. Your strictly measuring people on outcomes and not the difficulty of the hand they are dealt by the promoter. Im quite confident if Justin fought the 5 guys that lead Paddy to the belt hed be 5-0 as well. If a fighter is fighter contenders on 7, 8, 9 fight win streaks thats a totally different league then someone fighting Jared Gordon.

 

[Bobby Boulders]

I'm glad you decided to change colors and become a real poster again. You're one of the few TSes I can confirm without a doubt is a verified human

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

I'm glad you decided to change colors and become a real poster again. You're one of the few TSes I can confirm without a doubt is a verified human

Stay vigilant my friend, you never know which among us are robots.

 

[Bobby Boulders]

Stay vigilant my friend, you never know which among us are robots.

What if Sherdog is just a simulation, and even we verified humans aren't even real???

 

[Gamer007]

He's a can who's getting a strong UFC push, we all know it.

UFC are matching him up with Gaethje because Gaethje has horrible BJJ that even a relative novice could exploit. That's his one path to victory, and his one path to some kind of legitimacy. Everyone knows it including the UFC.


Fans believe Paddy is better than Jalin Turner, but when you actually examine the strength of schedule it's not even close. Paddy fought no one at all. he somehow dodged all the good prospects and all the contenders. And he flat out lost to Jared Gordon, and was struggling with Tony.

Turner had to fight:

Undefeated Uros Medic
4-1 Brad Ridell
Gamrot (who already beat Arman less than a year prior)
Dan Hooker
Bobby Green (A younger version than Paddy fought)
Moicano
Ignacio Bahamondes (just fought a close fight with Fiziev)
Edson Barboza (old but a respected fighter still)


Nate diaz & Paddy are the only fighters to have Tony outstrike them for a round since 2020!

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

What if Sherdog is just a simulation, and even we verified humans aren't even real???

What if I am a simulation and sherdog isnt even real

 

[Deathmask]

What if I am a simulation and sherdog isnt even real

 

[Bobby Boulders]

What if I am a simulation and sherdog isnt even real

 

[nonoob]

Can't wait for this fight, deserved or not. Arman would've been there if he had fought when scheduled AND after that he proved to be a low impulse control head-butting idiot.

I'm glad you decided to change colors and become a real poster again. You're one of the few TSes I can confirm without a doubt is a verified human

Not only is the Zebra verified, but he's...

More Human Than Human.

 

[Bobby Boulders]

Can't wait for this fight, deserved or not. Arman would've been there if he had fought when scheduled AND after that he proved to be a low impulse control head-butting idiot.


Not only is the Zebra verified, but he's...

More Human Than Human.

I always kinda thought he might be superhuman. I will makes no such claims, I'm just a guy. But a verified guy

 

[Bobby Boulders]

As far as the OP is concerned, it's kinda tangible proof of what most of us had already deduced, that Paddy doesn't actually deserve this opportunity. He's the industry plant. Is he at fault for it? No, he is just doing his thing, and if they wanna vault up him the rankings and give him an undeserved title shot, why would he turn it down?

The UFC doesn't really get fugazi enough to make this kind of thing not obvious, most of us around here could see it coming from early on after Paddy was signed. The casual fanbase, which outnumbers us by a significant margin, they don't break shit down like the OP does, though, or generally know about anyone fighting for the UFC that doesnt get all of the promo time, so no frame of reference to compare what they're being told to what is reality. They'll just take the UFC's word at face value when they laud how badass Paddy is, which helps the UFC's situation, bc they're trying to manufacture a new star, and if people just eat up what they tell them, they'll believe that he is the star they want him to be, effectively making him the star they want him to be. Expect more of this shit in the future, Dana is learning all of the tactics that the Federal government uses when they're also manipulating people and situations. No one looks into anything, they just hear it and accept it as truth, bc, "Well, that's what they said on TV, I heard it!"