NFL NFL ATS Pickem pool strategies

[Cartiac]

Anyone care to share their strategies for picks in NFL ATS pools? I'm currently at 39-37 which isn't horrible but isn't going to get me in the money spots unless I can regularly pick up another win per week.

My strategy starts with a simple set of rules as a baseline to prevent me from picking the same teams every week. I take home underdogs, double digit underdogs and +4.5 to 6.5 underdogs, favorites otherwise and then look for one offs where I see a spread that looks out of line for a specific reason.

Our spreads are also locked on Monday which is early and spreads can change significantly by Sunday but should not change picks based on those changes because it has made me a sucker, following the sucker money.

 

[Sir Elzio Dennick]

Anyone care to share their strategies for picks in NFL ATS pools? I'm currently at 39-37 which isn't horrible but isn't going to get me in the money spots unless I can regularly pick up another win per week.

My strategy starts with a simple set of rules as a baseline to prevent me from picking the same teams every week. I take home underdogs, double digit underdogs and +4.5 to 6.5 underdogs, favorites otherwise and then look for one offs where I see a spread that looks out of line for a specific reason.

Our spreads are also locked on Monday which is early and spreads can change significantly by Sunday but should not change picks based on those changes because it has made me a sucker, following the sucker money.

I don't start looking at ATS until after week 4, now I have something to go with.

I look at point differental, and home/road prowess.

Seattle is plus 22 vs Jags at minus 22, that is a Seattle plus 44.
Seattle has a winning record at home going back a season, the Jags a losing road record, the game in Seattle.
Now who has the better QB?

i look for "spots" that favor a side, Obviously Seattle is the play there.

You cannot win ATS going with that gut feeling, you will need to do your homework.

You are looking for the best three plays that week, looking for those "spots" where one team has an overwelming advantage vs the number.

Something else to look at is heading into a bye and coming off a bye.

I don't play NCAA that is a totally different deal.

 

[Cartiac]

I don't start looking at ATS until after week 4, now I have something to go with.

I look at point differental, and home/road prowess.

Seattle is plus 22 vs Jags at minus 22, that is a Seattle plus 44.
Seattle has a winning record at home going back a season, the Jags a losing road record, the game in Seattle.
Now who has the better QB?

i look for "spots" that favor a side, Obviously Seattle is the play there.

You cannot win ATS going with that gut feeling, you will need to do your homework.

You are looking for the best three plays that week, looking for those "spots" where one team has an overwelming advantage vs the number.

Something else to look at is heading into a bye and coming off a bye.

I don't play NCAA that is a totally different deal.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I should clarify that for this pool I have to make a pick for every game so can't just look for best bets.

I'm at 6-3 after the morning games so in good shape to put in a solid week, but do wish I had read your post earlier as SEA/JAX was one that I missed. SEA is a team I have had a really bad gauge on all year.

I really like your point differential metric and will definitely look into integrating that into my strategy.

 

[Sir Elzio Dennick]

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I should clarify that for this pool I have to make a pick for every game so can't just look for best bets.

I'm at 6-3 after the morning games so in good shape to put in a solid week, but do wish I had read your post earlier as SEA/JAX was one that I missed. SEA is a team I have had a really bad gauge on all year.

I really like your point differential metric and will definitely look into integrating that into my strategy.

Cool~~~~~

Home/road is a real big deal in the pro game, not so much NCAA.

Don't ignore "spots" like coming off a bye, heading into a bye, coming off a Thursday night game,. All that stuff matters in pro football.

College football we can see 40 point spreads, a huge spread in the pro game is 10. All it takes in the NFL is a few turnovers, and the lowly can beat the mighty.

Like everything else there are fundamentals at play with this.

 

[Cartiac]

Cool~~~~~

Home/road is a real big deal in the pro game, not so much NCAA.

Don't ignore "spots" like coming off a bye, heading into a bye, coming off a Thursday night game,. All that stuff matters in pro football.

College football we can see 40 point spreads, a huge spread in the pro game is 10. All it takes in the NFL is a few turnovers, and the lowly can beat the mighty.

Like everything else there are fundamentals at play with this.

definitely, the NFL is very good at their job of creating parity across the league. "Any given Sunday" is always possible whether it is beating a spread or even winning outright.

looking for "spots" is fine, but even if I can find 3 spots every week at a 100% success rate that still leaves 5-7 other games I need to get correct against the spread every week to get that 56%-59% win rate to place.

yes, while it is impossible to regularly achieve that high of a win rate, I do agree there are data based fundamentals that will produce better results than just gut feel.

A big problem I am trying to fill is the loss of data from Statfox. The best years I had, placing in the money 3 years in a row were when I had access to their platinum sheet, but now they are completely gone and I haven't found any other source for handicapping data.

 

[Sir Elzio Dennick]

definitely, the NFL is very good at their job of creating parity across the league. "Any given Sunday" is always possible whether it is beating a spread or even winning outright.

looking for "spots" is fine, but even if I can find 3 spots every week at a 100% success rate that still leaves 5-7 other games I need to get correct against the spread every week to get that 56%-59% win rate to place.

yes, while it is impossible to regularly achieve that high of a win rate, I do agree there are data based fundamentals that will produce better results than just gut feel.

A big problem I am trying to fill is the loss of data from Statfox. The best years I had, placing in the money 3 years in a row were when I had access to their platinum sheet, but now they are completely gone and I haven't found any other source for handicapping data.

The thing is this....

None of this stuff I am talking about is going to work playing that many games, what you are trying to do, hmmm?

Before my man got busted I was playing ATS, I was playing that basic110 to win 100, I did my homework and was hitiing 60%.
Trying to play more than the best three, I couldn't win triyng that,

I get it you are having fun with the game you're playing which is really all that matters.

I can say this........look at home teams with the better QB where less than a TD is the spread. Put a lot into home/road.

Don't igore dome teams on grass, west coast teams playing in that eastern time zone and vice versa. You MUST spend some time do your homework, you stand no chance at all going with gut feelings, that will not work at all.

Good luck my friend.

 

[Cartiac]

The thing is this....

None of this stuff I am talking about is going to work playing that many games, what you are trying to do, hmmm?

Before my man got busted I was playing ATS, I was playing that basic110 to win 100, I did my homework and was hitiing 60%.
Trying to play more than the best three, I couldn't win triyng that,

I get it you are having fun with the game you're playing which is really all that matters.

I can say this........look at home teams with the better QB where less than a TD is the spread. Put a lot into home/road.

Good luck my friend.

Well, what I am trying to do is finish in the money slots in my pool. It is a season-long NFL ATS Pick'em pool. We pick the winner of every game against the spread every week. Prizes are awarded for 1st and 2nd place each week and I think the top 10 at the end of the season with the top prize this year at $6k.

What I'm actually doing is exactly what you said, having fun. The pool cost $200 to enter and gives me something to root for in every NFL game. If I can win some prizes that would be great

 

[Sir Elzio Dennick]

Well, what I am trying to do is finish in the money slots in my pool. It is a season-long NFL ATS Pick'em pool. We pick the winner of every game against the spread every week. Prizes are awarded for 1st and 2nd place each week and I think the top 10 at the end of the season with the top prize this year at $6k.

What I'm actually doing is exactly what you said, having fun. The pool cost $200 to enter and gives me something to root for in every NFL game. If I can win some prizes that would be great more

Absolutely need to be involved with the games, I am in a SU thingy with some friends. So what is happening out there affects me so each game i care about. Same as you.

If I were doing what you're doing I would start looking at....

who is at home
who has the better QB
what is the point differental

Bears are plus 22 opponet Cards a minus 10, that is a 32 point advantage Bears.


Google....NFL Division Standing that info is there.

Dedicate some time each week to do the needed homework, lazy is what loser do,

Once again good luck my friend.

By the way was sitting at 74 wins so far picking SU. Tied for the lead with a girl, ha~~~