International Hydrocarbon Wars: Russia, Saudi Arabia & US Shale (Trump Saves The Day? OPEC+ Cuts 10 Million BPD)

[dissectingaorticaneurysm]

The collapse of energy prices because of the coronavirus crisis, combined with Saudi and Russian refusals to curb production, has already forced the suspension of the Shell project that Trump touted in Western Pennsylvania. The crash is also estimated to knock out about half of all shale producers, according to analysts at Raymond James Inc., if prices remain at between $20 and $30 per barrel. (The price as of midday Monday was $22.73 per barrel by the standard West Texas Intermediate benchmark.) A price at that level would cost thousands of jobs and deal a serious blow to the vision of U.S. energy independence.

"There is no sugar-coating it, U.S. oilfield activity will collapse with oil prices well below $30," on the WTI benchmark, said analyst Praveen Narra of Raymond James in a market update published on March 23. "The pace of rig count declines is likely to occur at a pace we have not seen before."

Worse, some industry executives say, Trump seems either not to recognize the threat or to be unwilling or unable to address it, touting instead his excitement over lower prices for consumers.

"Good for the consumer, gasoline prices coming down!" Trump tweeted on March 9, as the domestic oil price fell by 25 percent.​

4D chess or the attention span and verbal self-restraint of a child?

 

[MVelsor]

Interesting. I was under the impression that Macedon was a hickish backwater relative to Athens, and it wasn't until Phillip's successes that academics and scholars began trickling in. Was Alexander perhaps the most carefully observed child of the Classical period?

Phillip was the ultimate tiger dad. Buys up all the best talent in the known world to guide, develop, and document his son to fulfill his imperial ambitions. The results speak for themselves.

No doubt invading, conquering, subduing and ultimately uniting the city states of Greece put the whole region on notice. He inherited a weak country with an ineffective, undisciplined army and turned them into formidable warriors. It's interesting that the reorganization happened after he'd been imprisoned in Thebes for three years and got to witness the tactical abilities of Epaminondas and Pelopidas when they were wrecking Sparta (and it never recovered).

Certainly better than Pence's methods, and no less effective.

The idea of his parents arranging for high class hoes to be brought in and pleading with their teenage son like, "C'mon! What's wrong with you, Alexander?"

It seems like he fell in love with Heph when they were young boys and clearly lost his mind after his death; didn't last more than eight months himself. It probably was a kind of weakness @ElKarlo, didn't even bother naming a successor. Livius has a nice historian page on Heph and his role(s) throughout the campaign, quite vastly superior to wikipedia.

https://www.livius.org/articles/person/hephaestion/

The contrast between Philip...

... and Alexander.

 

[MVelsor]

4D chess or the attention span and verbal self-restraint of a child?

He probably doesn't even realize the correlation between them.

 

[ElKarlo]

I read something on him just about every week, but you know that's my boy. The biggest advantage Arrian and Plutarch have are that they had access to the primary sources of Alexander's contemporaries before they were lost or destroyed. Even for a figure as enormously historically significant as ATG, there is an unbelievable amount of information for someone that lived from 356-323 BC.

As far as sources they drew from, Ptolemy is Ptolemy and one of his most formidable companions although Arrian suspected that he sometimes exaggerated his own role in several battles. Nearchus was an older soldier and mentor that was later made the Macedonian fleet commander. Aristobulus was a friend of Alexander's father who was with him for the duration, but a non-combatant observer political official and engineer.

Plutarch focused on and penned a lot more about his character, personal life and relationships, with The Life of Alexander being the most well known. He knew so much about his childhood and teenage years in part because a privileged peer named Marsyas wrote about growing up and being educated alongside Alexander.

Nice breakdown. Thanks

I agree Ptolemy probably exaggerated his role. He seemed minor but just ibeside the inner circle of ATG. But he needed to justify his position z especially compared the the selucid Dude, and Antripitous or whoever that old guy was. Both of whom had bigger reputations that Ptolemy.
He was very clever Egypt is out of the way for most invasions and has a mighty hinterland and is wealthy. He picked the best place.

Ever read up on the Bactrian Greeks in India? Fascinating stuff

 

[MVelsor]

Nice breakdown. Thanks

I agree Ptolemy probably exaggerated his role. He seemed minor but just ibeside the inner circle of ATG. But he needed to justify his position z especially compared the the selucid Dude, and Antripitous or whoever that old guy was. Both of whom had bigger reputations that Ptolemy.
He was very clever Egypt is out of the way for most invasions and has a mighty hinterland and is wealthy. He picked the best place.

Ever read up on the Bactrian Greeks in India? Fascinating stuff

A little bit, but it's thin.

I'm really put off by the Diadochi and all of the shit that went down in the wake of his death, definitely come out of it with a far lower opinion of pretty much everybody involved. And yeah, Ptolemy got to live like a fat cat with a dynasty that lasted until Octavian / Augustus defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra (incredible historical link).

You just don't read about how badass so many of his inner circle generals were during the conquests under him and then it turns out Craterus got trampled to death by his own damn horse? Perdiccas ended up murdered by his own damn soldiers? Cassander having Alexander IV executed. Another old ass cunt (Antigonus) trying to get himself a piece.

Disgraceful garbage man, so much for brothers in arms.

 

[ElKarlo]

A little bit, but it's thin.

I'm really put off by the Diadochi and all of the shit that went down in the wake of his death, definitely come out of it with a far lower opinion of pretty much everybody involved. And yeah, Ptolemy got to live like a fat cat with a dynasty that lasted until Octavian / Augustus defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra (incredible historical link).

You just don't read about how badass so many of his inner circle generals were during the conquests under him and then it turns out Craterus got trampled to death by his own damn horse? Perdiccas ended up murdered by his own damn soldiers? Cassander having Alexander IV executed. Another old ass cunt (Antigonus) trying to get himself a piece.

Disgraceful garbage man, so much for brothers in arms.

Kings an Generals has a great podcast series on the Diadochi war. F$%^ is was a massive sh#$ fest. It was basically war after war, with small breaks in between. They could have used that energy to Hellenize their conquests and make things much better. A shame and a waste of talent and troops, gold talents too.
300 years is long enough to have great grand kids ruin it. It also had the bad luck like all of the Hellenic world to be declining with Rome on the rise.
Yeah, the geberals were amazing, and so many befell dumb pointless Barbarossa like ironic deaths.
ATG honey casket was not even dry when they already started fighting.
Biggest shame is the fact the ATG's son died and his bloodline ended.

 

[MVelsor]

Excellent.

Kings an Generals has a great podcast series on the Diadochi war. F$%^ is was a massive sh#$ fest. It was basically war after war, with small breaks in between. They could have used that energy to Hellenize their conquests and make things much better. A shame and a waste of talent and troops, gold talents too. 300 years is long enough to have great grand kids ruin it.

I humorously wonder what role Cleitus would've had in that shitshow if ATG hadn't murdered him. He was one of Philip's old guys who could hardly contain his outrage over the adoption of Persian customs as he established a genuinely multicultural empire. I'm pretty sure you side with Cleetus on this point as well (lol) and he probably deserved better after this, though it's also easy to see why Alexander garnered so much respect from his army.



In 328 BC Artabazos resigned his satrapy of Bactria, and Alexander gave it to Cleitus. On the eve of the day in which he was to set out to take possessions of his government, Alexander organized a banquet in the satrapial palace at Maracanda. At this banquet an angry dispute arose, the particulars of which are disputed by various authors.

Most of the members were rather drunk, and Alexander announced a reorganization of commands. Specifically, Cleitus was given orders to take 16,000 of the defeated Greek mercenaries who formerly fought for the Persian Shah north to fight the steppe nomads in Central Asia. Cleitus knew that he would no longer be near the King and would be a forgotten man. Furious at the thought of commanding what he saw as second-rate soldiers and fighting nomads in the middle of nowhere, he spoke his mind.

To make matters worse, when Alexander arrogantly boasted that his accomplishments were far greater than that of his father, Phillip II, Cleitus responded by saying that Alexander was not the legitimate king of the Macedonians, and that all of his achievements were due to his father. Alexander called for his guards, but they did not want to intervene in a quarrel between friends.

Alexander then threw an apple at Cleitus' head and called for a dagger or spear, but the party near the two men removed the dagger, restrained Alexander, and hustled Cleitus out of the room. The Hypaspists had conveniently left the vicinity of Alexander. Alexander then called for his trumpeter to summon the army; the alarm was not sounded.

Nevertheless, Cleitus managed to return to the room to utter more grievances against Alexander (it is possible that Cleitus had not even left the room). But sources agree that at this point Alexander got hold of a javelin and threw it through Cleitus' heart.

It also had the bad luck like all of the Hellenic world to be declining with Rome on the rise.

It had some surreal artwork tho.

 

[MVelsor]

such a shameful display. Utterly shameful. It united both the neoliberals and neocons in support, so any sane person was disgusted

It probably wouldn't come to mind for most people but that was really quite easily one of the most embarrassing moments of his presidency; even far worse than the inexplicably goofy "too many jobs in China lost!" tweet.

 

[MVelsor]

 

[MVelsor]

 

[Snackbar]

A Canadian barrel of oil is selling for $5

yep, five bucks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-...open-when-prices-turn-negative-172104653.html

they mention negative prices in the future. How does that work? I mean, a price below zero? Do they pay us to just take the oil?

Technically WCS is already seeing negative pricing if you take into account shipping, dilute, etc.

The producers hedge through futures contracts so they are not currently giving the stuff away, they are storing as much as possible for when we come out the other end of this.

But refineries make a killing with feed stock prices like this. Anyone down stream who has storage capacity will enjoy a massive payday in Q3-Q4.

 

[Oceanmachine]

Excellent.



I humorously wonder what role Cleitus would've had in that shitshow if ATG hadn't murdered him. He was one of Philip's old guys who could hardly contain his outrage over the adoption of Persian customs as he established a genuinely multicultural empire. I'm pretty sure you side with Cleetus on this point as well (lol) and he probably deserved better after this, though it's also easy to see why Alexander garnered so much respect from his army.



In 328 BC Artabazos resigned his satrapy of Bactria, and Alexander gave it to Cleitus. On the eve of the day in which he was to set out to take possessions of his government, Alexander organized a banquet in the satrapial palace at Maracanda. At this banquet an angry dispute arose, the particulars of which are disputed by various authors.

Most of the members were rather drunk, and Alexander announced a reorganization of commands. Specifically, Cleitus was given orders to take 16,000 of the defeated Greek mercenaries who formerly fought for the Persian Shah north to fight the steppe nomads in Central Asia. Cleitus knew that he would no longer be near the King and would be a forgotten man. Furious at the thought of commanding what he saw as second-rate soldiers and fighting nomads in the middle of nowhere, he spoke his mind.

To make matters worse, when Alexander arrogantly boasted that his accomplishments were far greater than that of his father, Phillip II, Cleitus responded by saying that Alexander was not the legitimate king of the Macedonians, and that all of his achievements were due to his father. Alexander called for his guards, but they did not want to intervene in a quarrel between friends.

Alexander then threw an apple at Cleitus' head and called for a dagger or spear, but the party near the two men removed the dagger, restrained Alexander, and hustled Cleitus out of the room. The Hypaspists had conveniently left the vicinity of Alexander. Alexander then called for his trumpeter to summon the army; the alarm was not sounded.

Nevertheless, Cleitus managed to return to the room to utter more grievances against Alexander (it is possible that Cleitus had not even left the room). But sources agree that at this point Alexander got hold of a javelin and threw it through Cleitus' heart.





It had some surreal artwork tho.

Such great phyisques in Greek art yet the small wangs ruin it, anti climatic and ruins the aesthticism. Why are they built like asians or indians down below?

I read they thought big peens were gross and that small was better. How anti climatic to such an awesome culture.

 

[Oceanmachine]

US entering recession territory. Even Powell is saying that which means if Trump has his way Powell will be gone soon. Assuming elections arent rigged (lolz) Trump should manage to be reelcted on the basis of the economy making it to November before the Fed and BLS note a real decline. The Feds are always slow to note what markets and big hedge funds notice well before. My take is even with coronas worse predictions the economy will need to be opened up otherwise Trump risks a depression like economy.

 

[Pseudo Sane]

Called it. Saudis have bitten off way more than they can chew.

 

[Fanu]

Such great phyisques in Greek art yet the small wangs ruin it, anti climatic and ruins the aesthticism. Why are they built like asians or indians down below?

I read they thought big peens were gross and that small was better. How anti climatic to such an awesome culture.

as gay as they were back then, they clearly weren't as gay as you :e

 

[Oceanmachine]

as gay as they were back then, they clearly weren't as gay as you :e

No homo. Just observing

Many other cultures depicted men who are strong as having big penises. Our currebt modern culture has done that for generations.

It is just odd the Greeks didnt do that

 

[MVelsor]

as gay as they were back then, they clearly weren't as gay as you :e

What's wrong with that? OceanMachine isn't gay, but I don't think he fully believes in the sort of government social and legal policies he (used to) advocate for. It seems like more of an observation these days.

Such great phyisques in Greek art yet the small wangs ruin it, anti climatic and ruins the aesthticism. Why are they built like asians or indians down below?

I read they thought big peens were gross and that small was better. How anti climatic to such an awesome culture.

If they had raging boners, it would make the artwork innately sexual (pornographic in modern times) and that just isn't what they were going for. It seems wholly counterintuitive, but even a majority of explicitly gay artwork and culture isn't even about sex. It obviously doesn't exist without the commonality, but most of it is really based about the celebration of men in general. We are more than our private parts and what we do with them, think we're very misunderstood.

Spoiler

This stuff is not porn, and not based on sex.

Spoiler

Where's the sex?

Spoiler

No homo. Just observing

Many other cultures depicted men who are strong as having big penises. Our currebt modern culture has done that for generations.

It is just odd the Greeks didnt do that

I always loved this one.

The Stag Hunt Mosaic (c. 300 BCE) is a mosaic from a wealthy home of the late 4th century BC, in Pella, the capital of the Macedonian Kingdom. It bears the signature of the Ancient Greek artist Gnosis, of whom very little is known. It is now located in the Archaeological Museum of Pella.

The figure on the right is likely Alexander the Great due to the date of this mosaic along with the depicted upsweep of the hair. Pella is also the birthplace of Alexander. The figure to the left wields a double-headed axe, alluding to Hephaistos; meaning the figure depicted could be the second-in-command, bodyguard, and boyhood best friend of Alexander, Hephaestion. The dog depicted is possibly Peritas accompanying Alexander.

The stag represents the Persians that Alexander conquered. He had stated his motives for battling the Achaemenid Empire was to get vengeance for the sacking Athens and destruction of temples there such as the Parthenon.

 

[MVelsor]

Should just ask. We're protecting them from Iran after all we walk away and they are exposed.

Called it. Saudis have bitten off way more than they can chew.

They don't seem to be backing off though.




In other news...



(Maybe Iran drone bombs infrastructure again)

 

[ElKarlo]

They don't seem to be backing off though.




In other news...



(Maybe Iran drone bombs infrastructure again)

Definitely being stubborn.
And yeah Iran is messing with them. Must be scary having your mortal enemy a short helicopter flight away.

BTW I'll reply to you other posts when I get a chance. The migration messed me up

 

[MVelsor]

Definitely being stubborn.
And yeah Iran is messing with them. Must be scary having your mortal enemy a short helicopter flight away.

BTW I'll reply to you other posts when I get a chance. The migration messed me up

The Scott Sheffield interview is great, and pretty much confirms exactly what was said back on the first page about all of the small and mediums going bankrupt only for Big Oil to swoop in and clean up. Those rockets were fired by the Houthis, and Iran can definitely touch critical KSA assets any time they want.