International Hydrocarbon Wars: Russia, Saudi Arabia & US Shale (Trump Saves The Day? OPEC+ Cuts 10 Million BPD)

[MVelsor]

Looks like China really picked up their investment into stolen scientific novelties!

Those are the fun ones!
But I too, like your threads. I always learn actual facts.

This is actually the one that deals with China:

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/us-industrial-tech-ip-theft-chinas-post-covid-punishment.4093085/

 

[MVelsor]

Imagine this scenario if the US didn't frack? The Saudis and Russians.

My Goodness. Follow The Dates.

 

[ElKarlo]

My Goodness. Follow The Dates.

That stuff is nuts.
BTW Cramer from mad money said that Trump should call Saudi Arabia and tell them if they want protection, then lower production. Would be a good call imho.
Anyhow Russia is nuts and oddly enough SA is probably the more reasonable one here

 

[MVelsor]

That stuff is nuts.
BTW Cramer from mad money said that Trump should call Saudi Arabia and tell them if they want protection, then lower production. Would be a good call imho.
Anyhow Russia is nuts and oddly enough SA is probably the more reasonable one here

Some observers are saying that Saudi Arabia was just waiting for the opportunity to launch a price war, but I find it hard to believe they would posture for months on increased production cuts. The $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves the House of Saud holds? That figure used to be $750b, before the last time this was tried.

They never recovered it and the country presently has a fiscal breakeven of $83 and change per barrel, because their economy is so entirely dependent on energy. That makes Saudi Aramco's $10-15 largely irrelevant, and they can only possibly fuck themselves over this. They drive out US Shale, for how long? The land, labor and capital are already in place.

Don't they realize this shit is fun and games to America?

 

[TUFNewb]

That stuff is nuts.
BTW Cramer from mad money said that Trump should call Saudi Arabia and tell them if they want protection, then lower production. Would be a good call imho.
Anyhow Russia is nuts and oddly enough SA is probably the more reasonable one here

I don't think they will do it unless Russia also agrees to cut. They think their regieme will not survive the combination of staggaring demand destruction + market share loss and they are probably right. They are pretty much in a fight for their lives as it is.

Really what protecting SA boils down to is fighting their battle with iran for them. So lets say trump lifts sanctions on iran, first thing iranians will do is increase their own production, eventually adding 1.6mbpd to the market just making the situation worse.

 

[jefferz]

Sounds like a typical dumb Oil bought neocon Republican idea.

Yes lets be more unilateral and rogue and make things worse!

What else could one expect from an old oil industry republican from a midwest state?

North Dakota just did an audit on royalties of a bunch of oil companies that drilled on public land and found out that over 40 were deducting things they weren't supposed to. One company is estimated to have put over 20% of his profits in his pocket instead of paying royalties.
So the state sent the oil companies letters demanding they pay up in 90 days. And of course the oil companies threw a hissy fit.
Kramer, our Governor, and a bunch of other congressman have sided with the oil companies! They want to help negotiate a price, but not for all the years of royalty payments, just for the year they were being audited.
It's disgusting.

 

[Oceanmachine]

North Dakota just did an audit on royalties of a bunch of oil companies that drilled on public land and found out that over 40 were deducting things they weren't supposed to. One company is estimated to have put over 20% of his profits in his pocket instead of paying royalties.
So the state sent the oil companies letters demanding they pay up in 90 days. And of course the oil companies threw a hissy fit.
Kramer, our Governor, and a bunch of other congressman have sided with the oil companies! They want to help negotiate a price, but not for all the years of royalty payments, just for the year they were being audited.
It's disgusting.

The worst part of a non nationalized resource or energy sector. Is these are finite resources and we hardly tax them either. All that finite resources spent and the citizens hardly see it. The government deficit every year could essily ve wiped out and we coule actually have a large forex reserve and Soverign wealth fund if we collected energy revenues. That wont ever happen properly if you rely solely on taxes. Because they just lobby Parliament or Congress for lower taxes and hide money offshore. Nationalize them like Norway

 

[ElKarlo]

Some observers are saying that Saudi Arabia was just waiting for the opportunity to launch a price war, but I find it hard to believe they would posture for months on increased production cuts. The $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves the House of Saud holds? That figure used to be $750b, before the last time this was tried.

They never recovered it and the country presently has a fiscal breakeven of $83 and change per barrel, because their economy is so entirely dependent on energy. That makes Saudi Aramco's $10-15 largely irrelevant, and they can only possibly fuck themselves over this. They drive out US Shale, for how long? The land, labor and capital are already in place.

Don't they realize this shit is fun and games to America?

I don't see the logic in SA's doing. As it will evoke American outrage. The left already is mad at them, and if the right is angered at all, they are open to Iranian attacks.

 

[ElKarlo]

I don't think they will do it unless Russia also agrees to cut. They think their regieme will not survive the combination of staggaring demand destruction + market share loss and they are probably right. They are pretty much in a fight for their lives as it is.

Really what protecting SA boils down to is fighting their battle with iran for them. So lets say trump lifts sanctions on iran, first thing iranians will do is increase their own production, eventually adding 1.6mbpd to the market just making the situation worse.

True. SA is in a no win situation. But they have Trump as a protector. Without Trump, the Dems let Iran go free or freer. Which is exactly what SA doesn't want. They need to balance foreign policy with economic.

 

[MVelsor]

The worst part of a non nationalized resource or energy sector. Is these are finite resources and we hardly tax them either. All that finite resources spent and the citizens hardly see it. The government deficit every year could essily ve wiped out and we coule actually have a large forex reserve and Soverign wealth fund if we collected energy revenues. That wont ever happen properly if you rely solely on taxes. Because they just lobby Parliament or Congress for lower taxes and hide money offshore. Nationalize them like Norway

The state legislature did make an amendment for 30% of oil and gas tax revenue in North Dakota to be diverted into a sovereign wealth fund managed by the State Investment Board. The aforementioned royalties are collected by Department of Trust Lands to fund a separate Common Schools Trust Fund, which is at around ~$5 billion itself now and has been useful. The state has a population of 760,000.

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/lo...cle_43479eed-18bd-577b-a635-e09bf3990533.html

An increase in money coming from the North Dakota Common Schools Trust Fund should help preserve state school aid payments.

The Common Schools Trust Fund, which comes from payments for energy exploration on state lands and investment earnings, will provide $366.8 million toward education funding for the 2019-21 biennium. This represents an increase of $78.5 million, or 27.2 percent, from the 2017-19 biennium.

The increase will help the state legislature continue the current level of state aid to schools. The state's general fund provides most of the financial aid to K-12 schools, which has been adversely affected in recent years by slowing sales and income tax revenue growth.

https://www.governor.nd.gov/news/ne...-leading-edge-internet-connectivity-and-speed

BISMARCK, N.D. – North Dakota today announced a 100-gigabit upgrade to the state network that will put its schools and government on the nation’s leading edge of internet connectivity and speed.

The state Information Technology Department (ITD) recently signed a contract extension with Dakota Carrier Network (DCN) providing for significant upgrades to the state network known as STAGEnet, which serves state and local governments, K-12 education and higher education.

When finished, the upgrades will position North Dakota as the first state to achieve 1-gigabit connectivity to every school district in the state. Completion is anticipated in summer 2019.

 

[Oceanmachine]

The state legislature did make an amendment for 30% of oil and gas tax revenue in North Dakota to be diverted into a sovereign wealth fund managed by the State Investment Board. The aforementioned royalties are collected by Department of Trust Lands to fund a separate Common Schools Trust Fund, which is at around ~$5 billion itself now and has been useful. The state has a population of 760,000.

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/lo...cle_43479eed-18bd-577b-a635-e09bf3990533.html

An increase in money coming from the North Dakota Common Schools Trust Fund should help preserve state school aid payments.

The Common Schools Trust Fund, which comes from payments for energy exploration on state lands and investment earnings, will provide $366.8 million toward education funding for the 2019-21 biennium. This represents an increase of $78.5 million, or 27.2 percent, from the 2017-19 biennium.

The increase will help the state legislature continue the current level of state aid to schools. The state's general fund provides most of the financial aid to K-12 schools, which has been adversely affected in recent years by slowing sales and income tax revenue growth.

https://www.governor.nd.gov/news/ne...-leading-edge-internet-connectivity-and-speed

BISMARCK, N.D. – North Dakota today announced a 100-gigabit upgrade to the state network that will put its schools and government on the nation’s leading edge of internet connectivity and speed.

The state Information Technology Department (ITD) recently signed a contract extension with Dakota Carrier Network (DCN) providing for significant upgrades to the state network known as STAGEnet, which serves state and local governments, K-12 education and higher education.

When finished, the upgrades will position North Dakota as the first state to achieve 1-gigabit connectivity to every school district in the state. Completion is anticipated in summer 2019.

I am talking nationally. I know they have this at a state level. Alaska has one to

 

[MVelsor]

North Dakota just did an audit on royalties of a bunch of oil companies that drilled on public land and found out that over 40 were deducting things they weren't supposed to. One company is estimated to have put over 20% of his profits in his pocket instead of paying royalties.
So the state sent the oil companies letters demanding they pay up in 90 days. And of course the oil companies threw a hissy fit.
Kramer, our Governor, and a bunch of other congressman have sided with the oil companies! They want to help negotiate a price, but not for all the years of royalty payments, just for the year they were being audited.
It's disgusting.

Do you miss Heidi Heit? It felt like she never had a chance, as if the Dem-NPL didn't hold a US Senate seat from 1960-2018 and another from 1987-2011. It's just all red now, all the way around.

 

[MVelsor]

True. SA is in a no win situation. But they have Trump as a protector. Without Trump, the Dems let Iran go free or freer. Which is exactly what SA doesn't want. They need to balance foreign policy with economic.

MBS on CBS. <45>

 

[ElKarlo]

MBS on CBS. <45>

Will have to watch it later. Probably Monday or so. Guy has a plan and is implementing it. He just does dumb stuff along the way. Like murdering w journalist in Turkey. Getting bogged down in a war and now this...

 

[jefferz]

Do you miss Heidi Heit? It felt like she never had a chance, as if the Dem-NPL didn't hold a US Senate seat from 1960-2018 and another from 1987-2011. It's just all red now, all the way around.

I didn't mind Heidi tbh. Her brother is a dolt though.

 

[MVelsor]

Will have to watch it later. Probably Monday or so. Guy has a plan and is implementing it. He just does dumb stuff along the way. Like murdering w journalist in Turkey. Getting bogged down in a war and now this...

That clip is only a couple of minutes. I'm not at all saying "I'm smart, MBS is dumb, etc." like @Oceanmachine claims and Russia is gonna Russia, they'll survive regardless of the outcome. I'm just an interested observer and we have seen this show before, no more than five years ago. The result was record high US crude production, lost market share for OPEC+ and the House of Saud out $250 billion of their treasure trove for their efforts.

 

[ElKarlo]

That clip is only a couple minutes. I'm not at all saying "I'm smart, MBS is dumb, etc." like @Oceanmachine claims and Russia is gonna Russia, they'll survive regardless of the outcome. I'm just an interested observer and we have seen this show before, no more than five years ago. The result was record high US crude production, lost market share for OPEC+ and the House of Saud out $250 billion of their treasure trove for their efforts.

Ok I'll give it a look in a bit. It's night now.
Yeah, he's a smart Dude but he has ADD. If he focuses he'd do better. Pyrrus the Greek general was actually good. Dude just couldn't concrete on one thing though. MBS is similar imho.
And yeah blowing through all their reserves and SWF isn't a good idea. Especially since SA is in the very early stages of diversifying

 

[MVelsor]

Ok I'll give it a look in a bit. It's night now.
Yeah, he's a smart Dude but he has ADD. If he focuses he'd do better. Pyrrus the Greek general was actually good. Dude just couldn't concrete on one thing though. MBS is similar imho.
And yeah blowing through all their reserves and SWF isn't a good idea. Especially since SA is in the very early stages of diversifying

His millennial status gives things a slightly different feel, but the social and economic reforms have largely been a smokescreen for ever increasing autocracy and even harder clamps on political speech. We tend to innately link economic, social and political freedom in the west, but MBS doesn't see it that way. It's more than worth throwing a couple of the prophet's pointers to the side in exchange for consolidated power.

 

[Oceanmachine]

That clip is only a couple of minutes. I'm not at all saying "I'm smart, MBS is dumb, etc." like @Oceanmachine claims and Russia is gonna Russia, they'll survive regardless of the outcome. I'm just an interested observer and we have seen this show before, no more than five years ago. The result was record high US crude production, lost market share for OPEC+ and the House of Saud out $250 billion of their treasure trove for their efforts.

When did they lose $250 billion? You referring to this from 2017?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...on-in-cash-in-3-years-amid-low-oil-prices/amp

 

[MVelsor]

When did they lose $250 billion? You referring to this from 2017?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...on-in-cash-in-3-years-amid-low-oil-prices/amp

They didn't lose it, they burned through it.