Golden Era of the Heavyweight Division (Stats)

[acannxr]

The Light Heavyweight version of this thread is here.
The Middleweight version of this thread is here.
The Welterweight version of this thread is here.
The Lightweight version of this thread is here.

I'm going to attempt to determine the best time period in the Heavyweight division (using annual data from 1996-2020).

Criteria:

• Average age of the top ten fighters for each year.
• Total ranked fighters in the division for each year.
• Number of turnovers in the top ten (fighters who made the top ten who weren't in it the previous year).
• All of the above data was based on January 1st for each year.

Year | Average Age

1996: 28.8
1997: 29.1
1998: 29.6
1999: 27.0
2000: 26.6
2001: 28.9
2002: 29.1
2003: 28.7
2004: 29.3
2005: 27.9
2006: 29.2
2007: 31.3
2008: 33.3
2009: 31.6
2010: 30.6
2011: 31.7
2012: 32.0
2013: 33.1
2014: 33.7
2015: 34.5
2016: 35.0
2017: 36.0
2018: 34.8
2019: 34.5
2020: 34.4
AVG: 31.2

Timeframe with youngest average age: 1996-2006.

Year | Total Fighters

1996: 40
1997: 80
1998: 109
1999: 116
2000: 151
2001: 149
2002: 173
2003: 188
2004: 239
2005-present: 250
AVG: 210

Timeframe with most total fighters: 2004-present.

Year | Turnovers

1996: 3
1997: 6
1998: 5
1999: 6
2000: 5
2001: 7
2002: 5
2003: 5
2004: 4
2005: 3
2006: 4
2007: 4
2008: 3
2009: 3
2010: 4
2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 1
2014: 3
2015: 2
2016: 2
2017: 0
2018: 5
2019: 3
2020: 1
AVG: 3.48

Timeframe with most turnovers: 1996-2010.

When you look for the most overlap with the above three results, then the Golden Era of the Heavyweight Division would be from 2004-2006.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Makes sense to me, I generally thought the best couple of years for the Pride/UFC era of HWs was 2004-2006 and the second best in recent years was the Strikeforce/Affliction/UFC era around 2008-2011.

 

[acannxr]

Makes sense to me, I generally thought the best couple of years for the Pride/UFC era of HWs was 2004-2006 and the second best in recent years was the Strikeforce/Affliction/UFC era around 2008-2011.

If 2004-2006 was the Golden Era, then I'd say 2010-2011 was the Silver Era.

January 2010

#1 Fedor Emelianenko (33)
#2 Brock Lesnar (32)
#3 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33)
#4 Frank Mir (30)
#5 Junior dos Santos (25)
#6 Josh Barnett (32)
#7 Brett Rogers (28)
#8 Cain Velasquez (27)
#9 Fabricio Werdum (32)
#10 Shane Carwin (34)

30.6 average age of top ten (-3.17%)
250 total ranked fighters (0%)
4 turnovers

January 2011

#1 Cain Velasquez (28)
#2 Brock Lesnar (33)
#3 Fabricio Werdum (33)
#4 Junior dos Santos (26)
#5 Fedor Emelianenko (34)
#6 Shane Carwin (35)
#7 Frank Mir (31)
#8 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34)
#9 Alistair Overeem (30)
#10 Josh Barnett (33)

31.7 average age of top ten (+3.6%)
250 total ranked fighters (0%)
1 turnover

 

[Ube]

Is this supposed to be some project for your intro to stats class at your local community college? Much respect.

 

[thewilks]

This is great, thanks. I've also noticed some less sophisticated data that explains why Fedor is the best HW ever and the GOAT, for people who don't understand your style of work.

Fedor's highlight videos range between as low as 8, and as high as 15 minutes longer than any other MMA HW's anywhere near the Goat discussion. It should be noted that most of these highlight videos contain very little fluff, or filler. There's just THAT MUCH footage of him smashing people.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

What’s interesting to me is how the age climbs over time up to 35, then stays there. You’d think if it was just 1 golden age passing through you’d see it go back down after they have left the sport. I wonder if we’ll see it in the next few years

 

[Fioretti]

This is great, thanks. I've also noticed some less sophisticated data that explains why Fedor is the best HW ever and the GOAT, for people who don't understand your style of work.

Fedor's highlight videos range between as low as 8, and as high as 15 minutes longer than any other MMA HW's anywhere near the Goat discussion. It should be noted that most of these highlight videos contain very little fluff, or filler. There's just THAT MUCH footage of him smashing people.

Some would consider Lindland, Hunt, Zulu, Choi, Coleman, and quite a few others filler or fluff. Just sayin.

Great thread @acannxr - I always like seeing statistical analysis. This one is very thorough. Cheers!

 

[Typrune Goatley]

Absolutely amazing thread. Excellent presentation with the numbers and graphs.

It also confirms what most Sherdoggers have been saying for a long time that the peak was 2004 to 2006. If you think about it, many of the greatest HW fights ever happened in that time period.

I also think the 2000 to 2003 era (RINGS, PRIDE, UFC) is very underrated. There was great depth then as well as the 2008 to 2011 era (UFC, Affliction, Strikeforce).

It seems the division has progressively declined since around 2014. By that point, most of the Golden Era HWs had seriously declined or retired and even the 2 best fighters of the next generation (aka New Breed) Cain and JDS were already slowing down by this point.

 

[Willy Knuckles]

Why is avg age so important? I guess in general I get why its important, but people get better at different ages,especially in MMA. Just dont think this proves anything. Good work tho

 

[Fight Professor]

Most fighters cut weight these days to lower divisions. And those who cannot cut to 205 choose a different sport.

 

[calisoul]

Is this supposed to be some project for your intro to stats class at your local community college? Much respect.

He is going to community college for two years to become a paralegal.

 

[GOATtalks]

You could also use the same data to make an argument that it is a very young sport, which was dominated by athleticism and less by experience and skill. You can this trend in all weight classes actually. There aren’t any UFC champs under 30 right now.
When before everyone became champions very young- Jones, BJ, GSP or Aldo were champions by the age of 25.
The new rule is:
Skill > age

 

[acannxr]

You could also use the same data to make an argument that it is a very young sport, which was dominated by athleticism and less by experience and skill.

At what point is the sport no longer young?
How did you determine which fighters were athletic but not equally experienced and skilled?
And at what point in history did that change for the Heavyweight division?
And who's to say that fighters in the Heavyweight division today aren't just getting by on athleticism?

You're making subjective claims based on subjective criteria.

You can this trend in all weight classes actually.

No, you can't, because I've already done the data on that (though not to the extent that I did in this thread), and as the divisions get lighter, the average age decreases; additionally, the average age in the lighter cases not only doesn't increase as much as the Heavyweight division, it often times decreases.

From 2010-2017 the average age only ever increased in the Heavyweight division, and only after having a little bit more turnover did the average age start to decrease.

There aren’t any UFC champs under 30 right now.
When before everyone became champions very young- Jones, BJ, GSP or Aldo were champions by the age of 25.

None of which bears any relevance to this thread.

 

[sabretitan]

Nowwwwwww

 

[Ube]

He is going to community college for two years to become a paralegal.

Lol that’s actually pretty funny. Because I’m a paralegal.

 

[Iron Nick]

Impressive thread man, keep doing your work.
For now, i haven't got likes left, but i'll make sure to come back to this once it is the case, because it deserves it.


Well executed.

 

[acannxr]

Impressive thread man, keep doing your work.
For now, i haven't got likes left, but i'll make sure to come back to this once it is the case, because it deserves it.


Well executed.

Wait, are they actually putting a cap on likes given?

 

[Iron Nick]

Wait, are they actually putting a cap on likes given?

Yup - at least a cap for how much likes you can give during a certain amount of time.

Forgot how many it were though... @Zebra Cheeks what exactly are the like restrictions in the normal forums? was it 25 all 6 hours or within a day?

 

[fight_fiend]

Damn man. Not sure if you're right but you've got my vote. Kudos for the project you put forth. A nice break from the norm.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Yup - at least a cap for how much likes you can give during a certain amount of time.

Forgot how many it were though... @Zebra Cheeks what exactly are the like restrictions in the normal forums? was it 25 all 6 hours or within a day?

It’s 50 for standard posters and 75 for plats in 24 hours.