Francis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis 2 - Who wins?

Who wins?


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Ngannou will be hesitant again but he won't be as hesitant as the first time. He might even mix in some clinch work and try to get Lewis down. Let's see how Lewis' "Just stand up" technique works with a 270 pounds beast on top of him.
Nope. Francis will beat him with kicks' straight punches, and speed.

Blaydes was working Lewis on the feet but he just couldn't control his habit of instinctively shooting for telegraphed takedowns when he doesn't have to.

The fight was one sided until Curtis served up his own chin.
 
NCAA Francis is real. Lewis was frozen by the takedown threat from Blades to the point that he was getting out-struck. Patient, D1 Francis was born last night. He wins.
So sprawling against a 39 yrs old man, who is 30lbs lighter than you makes you into a D1 wrestler?

Wow
 
People are crazy if they don't think Lewis is capable of knocking out NGannou.
 
Lewis has a great shot at beating him. Francis has not improved at all, it was just an awful performance by Sleepe that made Francis look good. He charged straight at Francis with his hands down and handed him the KO on a silver platter. Francis was still tired by round 2, his gas tank is still garbage nothing has changed. Lewis can win by KO or if it goes past round 2 he should win a decision.
 
I'm leaning toward Francis.

His chin has proven to be granite thus far in his career -- he's walked through bombs on the feet and the ground from Stipe and Rozenstruik without ever getting dropped, much less knocked out. I honestly think Franky's iron jaw is his second greatest asset, second only to his power/strength.
Conversely, while Lewis has a solid chin and heart for days, it wasn't that long ago that Lewis was getting boxed up and TKO'd by a washed JDS. Hell, pre-thiccboy Volkov even looked like he might be en route to finishing him and Blaydes seemed to be hurting him. The Mark Hunt loss was a while ago, so I won't give him too much flak for that.

As far as power goes: 75% of Francis's wins have come by way of (T)KO and 37.5% of those are flat knockouts. Derrick has 80% (T)KO ratio and 30% of those are "real" KOs. These numbers don't tell the whole story, of course -- they're just statistics. All this being said about durability and power, I want to be clear that either guy could potentially clip the other and sleep them at any point in the fight this time... and no, I don't expect a super boring fight in the rematch. Black Beast is healthy and Francis has literally and figuratively conquered his demons since that last bout.

I think Francis has more offensive options as well. I'm really liking his calf kicks -- especially against a boxing-based fighter like Derrick. He has also shown a new layer of offensive wrestling -- which he doesn't need to fully commit to or anything so much as just threaten and get BB thinking about. It surprised me to see that Ngannou has so many submissions on his record from earlier in his career; I wonder if this is something he's continued to develop and keep in his back pocket. That kimura he landed in the UFC was not the most technical sub lmao. I doubt his ability to hold down and sub BB regardless.

In any case, by comparison Lewis doesn't have much beyond that step-in/flying knee, which is admittedly a nice tool of his. His meme high kicks aren't exactly reliable.

Cardio I would actually slightly favor Derrick with. He has won a few Decisions lately, including those that involved extensive grappling exchanges. He seems to have really slimmed down and put the time in for his conditioning -- he's still no marathon man by any means, but he's vastly improved compared to himself pre-title fight IMO. Francis has also improved of course -- his energy management and discipline was superb against Stipe in the rematch, despite not knowing what to make of the whole "mouth open" thing the commentators were harping on. It really just comes down to me not having seen enough of Francis to put him over Lewis, especially since he still weighs in at the limit.

Overall, I think Francis would be able to dictate the exchanges better. He has a significantly longer reach and more weapons that can degrade BB's capabilities. When these two do crash together, his chin has a slightly better chance of holding up in the pocket... but Lewis and his hands are always a live dog. That said, Francis would be the favorite and rightfully so. I'd say he wins by TKO 7/10 times at least.
 
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. Hell, pre-thiccboy Volkov even looked like he might be en route to finishing him and Blaydes seemed to be hurting him.
But he knocked out both of them in an absoultely brutal fashion. Blaydes was out cold and he couldn't get back up to his feet properly for a few minutes after that uppercut landed. Even Ngannou couldn't switch Blaydes' light out like that, he landed multiple unanswered shots but Blaydes was still moving and reacting to everything. It took only 1 punch from Lewis to send him to an alternative dimension. It's not luck because that's not first time it happens. Lewis was losing against Abdurakhimov, Tybura, Browne (almost got stopped in the first), looked like he was about to get submitted by Oleinik in the first round but he knocked out all of them in the end. So there's a clear and visible pattern here. Black Beast is a king of comebacks, that's his main strength. It's almost like a part of his gameplan too, because he often looks tentative and unipressive early on but ends up winning. It kinda looks like luck when you look at it superficially but it's actually not. He did that against Nelson and Latifi too, he was "losing until he won" there as well. So Volkov and Blaydes arguments are questionable, he outstruck and beat them in the end when it mattered the most and proved to be a better fighter. I think that is his main advantage over Ngannou. Ngannou is faster, more athletic and technical but he lacks heart (at least compared to Lewis). Lewis can get hurt early on and look like he's gassed and on his way to a loss but then he'll explode in the 3rd or 4th round and pull a TKO win out of nowhere. I feel like if the fight somehow goes to the championship rounds Lewis will actually win based on his toughness, durability and comeback skill.
 
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But he knocked out both of them in an absoultely brutal fashion. Blaydes was out cold and he couldn't get back up to his feet properly for a few minutes after that uppercut landed. Even Ngannou couldn't switch Blaydes' light out like that, he landed multiple unanswered shots but Blaydes was still moving and reacting to everything. It took only 1 punch from Lewis to send him to an alternative dimension. It's not luck because that's not first time it happens. Lewis was losing against Abdurakhimov, Tybura, Browne (almost got stopped in the first), looked like he was about to get submitted by Oleinik in the first round but he knocked out all of them in the end. So there's a clear and visible pattern here. Black Beast is a king of comebacks, that's his main strength. It's almost like a part of his gameplan too, because he often looks tentative and unipressive early on but ends up winning. It kinda looks like luck when you look at it superficially but it's actually not. He did that against Nelson and Latifi too, he was "losing until he won" there as well. So Volkov and Blaydes arguments are questionable, he outstruck and beat them in the end when it mattered the most and proved to be a better fighter. I think that is his main advantage over Ngannou. Ngannou is faster, more athletic and technical but he lacks heart (at least compared to Lewis). Lewis can get hurt early on and look like he's gassed and on his way to a loss but then he'll explode in the 3rd or 4th round and pull a TKO win out of nowhere. I feel like if the fight somehow goes to the championship rounds Lewis will actually win based on his toughness, durability and comeback skill.

Context -- both of what I said and the punches which landed. Like I said, the numbers don't tell the whole story and the fact is both men have absurd power -- more than enough to put most fighters away in an instant. Look at Lewis's stoppage of Volkov: he knocked him down, Volkov was conscious and the fight should have been stopped hours ago, but Herb let him pound him like a slab of beef with like half a dozen unanswered blows before Drago finally, mercifully, went to sleep. Again, monstrous game-changing power, no doubt. But it was more of a TKO that went on too long than anything. With Blaydes, again, context. Curtis ducked down headfirst into an uppercut at full torque; I can't think of a more devastating punch to land in the standup.

Ngannou never landed that kind of strike on Blaydes -- their exchange was a lot more dynamic with Francis winging shots and clipping him, a lot of those not landing clean on a moving target. Certainly nothing like Derrick's kill shot that Curtis basically offered up to him on a silver platter. He is more than capable of sending someone to another dimension with an uppercut, however (well, maybe more of a shovel hook).
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Also look at how he flattened Cain with almost no room to throw a punch with full extension. For days people were convinced that Velasquez hadn't even gotten hit and that his knee had given out. And that was a grazing hit!

You're looking waaaay too much into my Volkov and Blaydes mentions. I wasn't questioning his win over either of them or saying that it was illegitimate or a fluke. He beat both of them fair and square. You're beating a strawman. I only mentioned them as relevant examples of durability showcases for Black Beast. That's it, nothing more.

Lewis's comeback "gimmick" (for lack of a better term) is great and is part of what makes him such a fan favorite and likeable fighter (and I do like Lewis, despite seeming like I'm shitting on him here). But I'd be concerned about him not getting the chance to ever get started -- much less come back -- against "Francis 2.0" who has always been a proven early finisher and now has even more tools (offensive wrestling, heavy calf kicks, better gas tank management) to give Lewis fits. There are limits to his comebacks: we've seen him outstruck and TKO'd by a superior technical boxer in JDS who wasn't even close to his prime (he tried his comeback thing there and failed, I kinda thought/hoped he would succeed honestly). We've seen him TKO'd by a heavy-handed kickboxer with a granite chin in Mark Hunt. And of course we've seen him thoroughly dealt away with by relentless wrestle-boxer/chain-wrestler in DC.

That being said, there's a reason I left a 30% window for BB to pull something off. His heart and power aren't to be underestimated as you said. Though it's hard to get a read on what Francis's "heart" is like at this stage in his career. He is at an all-time mental/emotional high after conquering his demons and has also shown a willingness to walk through fire against Rozenstruik and Stipe in order to pressure them. I feel like he's turned a corner from being the Cameroonian who can only dish it out but can't take it and won't tolerate being the nail. Even in the first fight when Stipe was dominating him he attempted a submission in the 5th round and throughout the entire mauling he ate flush shots to the face and yet seemed more concerned with resting to save up energy for an explosion rather than blocking the strikes (weak though they were).

What I really like about Lewis is that I think he carries his power better late into the fight. I'm not sure how to articulate this, but Francis in my personal opinion relies heavily on explosiveness to generate striking power. Derrick on the other hand is just... I don't know, "naturally heavy-handed" if there is such a thing? He can be absolutely gassed late in a fight and moving like a paraplegic and still swing hammers. So yeah, if Lewis did win their fight, I suspect it would be a late comeback against a gassed Francis after getting beat up early (assuming he doesn't clip him with something early in a wild exchange which is never impossible with two heavy hitters like this). But I still favor Francis overall: more durable at this up to this point in his career, more weapons, longer reach, and faster.
 
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Francis' best KO's come from countering his opponents usually due to sloppy offense. I see Derick fainting for several rounds only throwing an occasional kick or overhead from a safe distance. Is Francis going to commit to attacks?

The problem is even if it ends up being a boring fight again, now it is a title fight. And this time Francis would very likely win it.
 
NCAA Francis is real. Lewis was frozen by the takedown threat from Blades to the point that he was getting out-struck. Patient, D1 Francis was born last night. He wins.
NCAA Francis is a baby. Black beast smashes him out of his incubator.
 
These boys are the heaviest hitters of all time. Both have tyson esque power and can end each other on any given night. They also both improved since their 1st fight but I give the edge to Francis...
 
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