Fiziev opens as a favorite vs Gaethje

I think -125 Fiziev is accurate. Fiziev was the quicker, more potent fighter in their first fight until the eye poke, which seemed to swing the momentum Gaethje's way. Fiziev's eye was bothering him after the poke, for sure, and that probably played a role in Gaethje's comeback.
 
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TempleoftheDog said:
The bookies set the opening odds to attract bettors. With Fiziev as the fav, I imagine Justin will get a lot of money put on him. The opening odds often don’t remotely reflect the closing odds. That is how the bookies always win.
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um... no they don't... because they would be driving bets onto Justin... if they thought Justin would win they would want to drive bets to Fiziev...
 
Justing was already training for a straight kickboxing affair against Hooker

He accepted a fight in which will take place on the feet unlike some of the others that were asked so this may favor Justin

Where Fiz sacrifices height/reach in relation to Dan, he gains speed. Not sure how Justin trained for Hooker but a similar approach should take place and he already faced and beat him before. A big confidence booster in any rematch


Im gonna slightly favor Juatin again

That Max fight is a hard one to judge as he fought with a mashed nose the whole entire time from that spin kick and that def hindered anything we got outta him the rest of the fight
 
EndlessCritic said:
This is nonsense. The bookies' job is to attract balanced action.

If the action is imbalanced, the line changes, and continues changing, until the action is balanced.

All opening lines are simply the bookies' prediction of how the market will bet.
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It doesn’t always balance, are you new to sports betting? Sometimes the line never stops shifting one direction and it closes super skewed towards one side.

There are times where 99.99% of the bet goes one side and keeps going one side, where you start off at even money and it closes at like -600 vs +450.

You sound like some theory nerd, you forget bookies are human too, and they can set the line based on emotion.
 
Not that surprising. First fight was a coin flip even with Fiziev gassing, and Justin's 2 years further out of his prime and took a pretty severe beating in his last fight. Wouldn't bet on either of them as the favorite, but I'd throw a few bucks on it if Fiziev switches to the underdog.
 
Gaethje was also the underdog vs Vick and MJ.

What were his odds vs Hooker? Must've been a huge favorite.
 
The XL said:
Justin is now 36, old for a LW, and just got mauled by Holloway. Odds make sense to me.
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Really?? The guy who lost already, who’s been inactive for 18 months while coming off a serious knee injury. I’m addition, taking the fight on 10 days notice ??

Gaethje should be the fav
 
koa pomaikai said:
It doesn’t always balance, are you new to sports betting? Sometimes the line never stops shifting one direction and it closes super skewed towards one side.

There are times where 99.99% of the bet goes one side and keeps going one side, where you start off at even money and it closes at like -600 vs +450.

You sound like some theory nerd, you forget bookies are human too, and they can set the line based on emotion.
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I don't think he was saying it "always" balances. He was saying that generally speaking (but not 100% of the time) the books would prefer that the action was balanced and the losers pay the winners and the books collect the juice. Knowing that, the books usually strive to be as accurate as they can be in predicting how the public will bet. The farther off they are (like in your scenario where it opens at evens and ends up -600), the more exposure the book has to the outcome. They **usually** prefer not to gamble at all. They just want to collect juice.

There are exceptions of course. One that stands out was McGregor vs Mayweather. The betting public just kept throwing money at Conor, to where Floyd's line shrunk to around -400 at some books. Those lines shrank, but the books still weren't enticing much action on Mayweather. But that was a situation where they were okay with that exposure because their oddsmakers knew the "true" odds should have been more like Mayweather -4000. They were (rightfully) extremely confident he'd win. So the public betting McGregor so heavily was acceptable risk for the books. Gaethje vs Fisiev is not likely to be a fight the books want to have a lot of exposure on. So the thought that the books made Justin the dog to entice action on him would mean the books essentially want to be on the Fisiev side. It's possible I guess...but not likely. They tend to not like choosing a side on a close, high variance event like this fight.

That's (I think) what the guy you were responding to was trying to say.
 
TITS said:
Gaethje was also the underdog vs Vick and MJ.

What were his odds vs Hooker? Must've been a huge favorite.
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Gaethje was around -165
 
eye poke might be why Justin won, at the time I thought it was an accident. After Max did it to him and what happened to Henry last weekend I realized these are not accidents and hope Justin losses this one. Fisiev needs to make this the start of his run toward top 5
 
Leonard Haid said:
I think -125 Fiziev is accurate. Fiziev was the quicker, more potent fighter in their first fight until the eye poke, which seemed to swing the momentum Gaethje's way. Fiziev's eye was bothering him after the poke, for sure, and that probably played a role in Gaethje's comeback.
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I think Gaethje is just a fan favorite it's convenient to omit that he had a comeback win after the eye poke. Most that talk about the fight after just say "the LWs that got a chance to fight the old guard failed" and leave it at that.

It's kind of crazy how Dustin was blown away by BSD round 1, Gaethje lost to Fiziev before an eyepoke, Olivera loses to Arman. Max only fights Dustin/Gaethje. And people are fine with LW rankings.

To me only Arman, Islam, Gamrot, Hooker make sense in the top 10. Everyone else has been fighting each other and is old for LW right now and close to retirement. The "new guard" at LW gave all of them a tough test. Yet people casually just dismiss it as "they had their chance".
 
I wonder if this is the fight where Justin starts to show his age and miles. Feels like the right time.
 
Being 36 in the LW division is like being 87 and doing construction.

You should've been retired.

There was a time in the UFC where guys in their upper 30s ranked in the top 10 of the 155 division was unthinkable. Now it's infested with them.
 
The odds make sense to me. Fiziev was beating Gaethje in their first fight til he gassed. Plus Gaethje is coming off a brutal KO loss. Some guys never are the same after a devastating KO. & he's on the wrong side of his 30's.
 
Bend NvR Break said:
Being 36 in the LW division is like being 87 and doing construction.

You should've been retired.

There was a time in the UFC where guys in their upper 30s ranked in the top 10 of the 155 division was unthinkable. Now it's infested with them.
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Probably because all these guys in their mid 30s are better and beating all the guys in their 20s.
 
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TempleoftheDog said:
The bookies set the opening odds to attract bettors. With Fiziev as the fav, I imagine Justin will get a lot of money put on him. The opening odds often don’t remotely reflect the closing odds. That is how the bookies always win.
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Very rarely do favorites switch when it comes to fights.
 
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