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Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland II – WOW! Dricus finds a way AGAIN! He submits Adesanya after battling through some tough, tough periods, and can now claim to be a cut above the rest of the division... apart from one guy. Let’s settle the score. DDP dethroned Strickland in a razor-thin Split Decision back in January, and Strickland went on to beat Paulo Costa to get right back at the head of the queue. I think it’s common knowledge now that Sean is getting the shot, unless something crazy happens in the Whittaker-Chimaev fight, but even then I think this one makes more sense. We need closure between these two, but until then, Dricus reigns supreme!
Israel Adesanya vs Jamahal Hill – Yep, you read that right… I’d love to see Izzy jump to 205 and face Jamahal Hill and make a run at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship belt held by none other than Alex Pereira! Wishful thinking? Okay, give me…
Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov-Brendan Allen Winner instead. But I still prefer the move up to light heavyweight!
Kai Kara-France vs Kai Asakura – I honestly can’t believe the UFC would put Kai Asakura into a title fight for his promotional debut, it just doesn’t make any sense – but they could certainly put him against a top-ranked fighter like Kai Kara-France, fresh off a blitzing first round finish over another title contender! If KKF wins he’s surely getting Pantoja. Hard to argue with that as a motivation.
Steve Erceg vs Alex Perez – Time to rebuild for Erceg, ‘Astroboy’ rose to the top so dramatically and so quickly it feels to have all been a bit of a whirlwind. KKF put him out quickly tonight, and that makes 2 defeats in a row – is that the end of Erceg? I highly doubt it. Get him in against Alex Perez, he doesn’t just need a win though, he needs a statement.
Dan Hooker vs Justin Gaethje – Dan Hooker enters the top 5, displacing Mateusz Gamrot, after a literal blood-and-guts display! I loved the BMF call out, but with Max challenging Topuria at 145, this is the fight to make for me – Hooker vs Gaethje, and this is a much tougher stylistic challenge for ‘The Hangman’. Get through this, though, and I would love that Hooker vs Max throwdown, but first things first… ‘The Highlight’ is there for huge, fun brawls, and Hooker will have his hands more than full here as he tries to climb yet further.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Michael Chandler – Michael Chandler probably needs to wake from his Conor McGregor fever dream before his career is put on ice permanently. I know at 38 he was looking for a huge pay day and a massive main event, but if it doesn’t happen, Chandler can still try to make one last surge up the rankings. He’s presently below Gamrot, hasn’t fought in nearly 2 years, and the clocks on. Fight or forfeit the rankings spot – does he still have it in him to compete at a high level or not?
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Marcin Tybura – The UFC tried for this fight in 2022, but a Tybura illness put paid to that. Fast forward a couple of years and Jairzinho surely climbs to #10 in the rankings with Tybura #9. Both of them have fought a lot of heavyweights, and while Tybura will likely look for an early takedown and submission, like he did to Tai, but I’m not sure it will be that easy… Jairzinho likes to fight off the back foot and he is accurate.
Tai Tuivasa vs Martin Buday – 5 losses in a row? Yeah, Tai will be fortunate if he’s not cut, I think a lot of people will expect it, and after tonight’s performance… sure, I can see it. But he has been a star in Australia and is a reliable main card mainstay, so… give him one last chance with a step down in competition. Buday may be 5-1 in the UFC, but he’s not been facing the highest level of competition, and a win over Tai would be a career best win without a shadow of a doubt. Can the Slovakian benefit from Tai’s seemingly unending skid? Or does Bam Bam shut his lights out?
Carlos Prates vs Michael Page – MVP owning that #14 spot in the welterweight rankings could soon become a ‘Nightmare’ for him as Carlos Prates just put on a career-defining beating (so far, anyway) on ‘The Leech’. The big, tall, super accurate striker needs someone who can hang and bang, and MVP has similarly been a major puzzle throughout his MMA career. If they don’t want to make the MVP-Wonderboy fight due to the dual-bladed stances, this one should be dynamite in a way that fight might miss!
I believe he called out Khaos Williams, which would be his fourth UFC fight (and probably the end of his current contract). I’m down for that too! But…
Jingliang Li vs Khaos Williams – ‘The Leech’ got dispatched in brutal fashion, his first KO defeat, and he could battered around the cage from start to finish. Okay, Khaos, over to you – how good are you? Can you replicate that? Li won’t go away easily, but as 6-2 Williams keeps climbing the ladder, he’ll likely guarantee himself a ranked opponent with a win here – but I don’t think he’s there just yet.
Valter Walker vs Justin Tafa – Valter Walker said he wants to take out Junior’s brother Justin, and why not? Justin just saw an unbeaten run snapped by a wrestler, Valter Walker probably tries to do something similar, but Justin is bigger and heavier than Junior and could be a tougher proposition. There’s a narrative here, so sure, why not?
Junior Tafa – BANISHMENT! Tafa slapped Valter after the fight, an absolute no-no in this sport, and refused to accept defeat gracefully. You’re gone, kid. It wasn’t the hardest slap ever, but that’s probably only because there were guys in the way. No thanks.
Ricardo Ramos vs David Onama – Ricardo Ramos managed to eek out a razor-thin decision against Josh Culibao despite having his leg massacred in Round 2. Ramos managed to tough it out, not something he has always done, and cleverly interjected some grappling in a crucial third round to steal the decision. Give him David Onama next. The athletic Ugandan is 4-2 in the UFC and picked up a huge win over Jonathan Pearce last time out but sullied it slightly by missing weight. That’s no way to get ranked opposition, but a big statement against Ramos (who has been finished in R1 on 4 separate occasions) might be the ticket.
Josh Culibao vs Christian Rodriguez – Culibao has somehow lost 3 fights in a row despite being a pretty legit fighter capable of mixing it with high(ish) level opposition. Culibao doesn’t seem to have a natural killer instinct, though, and he’ll be gutted if that costs him his job in the UFC. I wouldn’t cut him, personally, but his head is on the chopping block next time out. CRod is a fun prospect killer that was engaging in an entertaining scrap with Julian Erosa before being locked into a fight-ending guillotine, and he matches up against Culibao really, really nicely. Both are above that prospect-level at this point and should put on a very fun bout! We need this one!
Casey O’Neill vs Tracy Cortez – Casey O’Neill picks up what I believe is her first win as a ranked fighter, and she looked levels above the surging Luana Santos tonight. Tough, heavy, and with more impactful striking, O’Neill showed she belongs in that #15 spot. Despite defeat against Ariane Lipski (da Silva) in December of last year, I think she’s shown she’s ready for more ranked opposition. Tracy Cortez had the toughest of outs last time against Rose Namajunas, and there’s no shame in taking your first loss against such high-level opposition. Does that defeat motivate Tracy, or take its toll? I’d like to see how Cortez responds, and O’Neill is a good test.
Luana Santos vs Julija Stoliarenko – The Lithuanian has won 2 of her last 4, so despite an overall unimpressive UFC record of just 2-6, she might not be as close to getting cut as one might think. Still, she has a long way back to record parity, and she’s not going to get any easy fights given she has over 20 fights of experience by now. She’s the right level, the right range for Luana Santos to try to bounce back against, and as a Judoka it will be interesting to see if she plays the ground game with Julija or not – and if she does, does she work away with two fully-functioning arms?!
Jack Jenkins vs Gavin Tucker – Jack Jenkins wants to get back in there against the originally-scheduled opponent Gavin Tucker, and I’ve no issues with that. Tucker is a tough Canadian veteran but who is on a two-fight skid and been finished by both Dan Ige and Diego Lopes – if Jenkins can also finish Tucker, he’ll be in great company! Jenkins has those leg-shattering kicks, but also showed he has heat in his hands, too. While he took a little longer to break Burns down than some thought, he still looked very clean and composed, and seemed to take little damage in a multi-levelled affair against a potentially dangerous grappler.
Herbert Burns – QUIT! I mean, CUT! Sorry, Herbert, I’d like to see you grapple a bit, there’s a lot of fun platforms for that, but MMA… not so much.
Tom Nolan vs Alex Munoz – It feels like 24 year old Tom Nolan is going to need a lot of patience if he is to realize his potential. The 6’3 lightweight can execute most of the moves you’d expect but doesn’t seem to be able to put them together very well, and looks very, very green. Failing to put away Alex Reyes doesn’t reflect well, but we move on, I’d give him Alex Munoz next, another very, very inactive fighter, this time out of Team Alpha Male and coming off a win. Nolan needs these kinds of fights, I wouldn’t be giving him any of the other young, hungry lions in the UFC at this stage, we saw what happened against Nikolas Motta and it didn’t end well for ‘Big Train’. Keep him in the same ballpark for now, and see how he deals with Munoz’ TAM offensive.
Alex Reyes – CUT! Reyes did better than almost everybody expected, but never really threatened to overwhelm or out-gun Nolan. His 0-3 run in the UFC has taken the better part of a decade to come to fruition, and at 37, I’d let him go. It’s sad what happened to the man, but he’s come out the other end and should be a useful guy to have around the gym.
Kenan Song vs Muslim Salikhov – Song Kenan beat up Ricky Glenn but got tagged early and didn’t look especially fast or explosive tonight. I think he’d suit a knock-down, drag-out affair with old warhorse Muslim Salikhov next. Both like to strike, both have real power, and this will give us a better idea of whether Song is just starting to slow down or not… both coming off much-needed wins against other veteran scrappers, Song needs to show he’s still get an extra step in his stride against the 40 year old.
Ricky Glenn vs Michael Chiesa – Ricky Glenn is in real danger of getting cut. He’s just 4-6-1 overall in the UFC and he’s on a 3-fight skid. Most guys are gone – but Glenn is a gutsy veteran who hasn’t got an ounce of quit in him, and the UFC sometimes gives these guys more chances. If they do keep him, I can see Michael Chiesa getting the call to face him next, Chiesa just extended Tony Ferguson’s historic losing streak, he could become something of a hatchet man in the welterweight division as he sends fun fighters packing in consecutive fights – Chiesa himself is rebuilding himself after a 3-fight skid.
Jesus Aguilar vs Rafael Estevam – Aguilar sunk in yet another guillotine and put Stewart Nicoll to sleep! Weight miss aside, that’s an impressive win for the Mexican, as Nicoll can do it all in the cage (except, seemingly, defend much-expected guilly’s!). Aguilar snatches the 0, though, on foreign soil and I’d like to see him head to Brazil next and face another undefeated fighter who, like Aguilar, missed weight last time out. Rafael Estevam defeated Charles Johnson in his UFC debut, but hasn’t fought since (Johnson is 3-0 since then, BTW). Aguilar vs Estevam is an opportunity for both to put the weight misses behind them and show they have a future at 125.
Stewart Nicoll vs Mitch Raposo – I watched a bit of Nicoll’s tape and liked what I saw, particularly in the wrestling/grappling stakes, but all that study seems a bit of a waste! Nah, Nicoll will be back, he has ability, I’d like to see him face another fighter who came in and immediately went 0-1 in the UFC, Mitch Raposo. Both are 5’5, both were undefeated prior to entering the big leagues, though Raposo now has losses on all of TUF, DWCS, and the UFC proper(!). Someone’s gonna kickstart there career here in what I expect to be a fast-paced and action-packed affair that might get overlooked a little due to their respective starts.
Israel Adesanya vs Jamahal Hill – Yep, you read that right… I’d love to see Izzy jump to 205 and face Jamahal Hill and make a run at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship belt held by none other than Alex Pereira! Wishful thinking? Okay, give me…
Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov-Brendan Allen Winner instead. But I still prefer the move up to light heavyweight!
Kai Kara-France vs Kai Asakura – I honestly can’t believe the UFC would put Kai Asakura into a title fight for his promotional debut, it just doesn’t make any sense – but they could certainly put him against a top-ranked fighter like Kai Kara-France, fresh off a blitzing first round finish over another title contender! If KKF wins he’s surely getting Pantoja. Hard to argue with that as a motivation.
Steve Erceg vs Alex Perez – Time to rebuild for Erceg, ‘Astroboy’ rose to the top so dramatically and so quickly it feels to have all been a bit of a whirlwind. KKF put him out quickly tonight, and that makes 2 defeats in a row – is that the end of Erceg? I highly doubt it. Get him in against Alex Perez, he doesn’t just need a win though, he needs a statement.
Dan Hooker vs Justin Gaethje – Dan Hooker enters the top 5, displacing Mateusz Gamrot, after a literal blood-and-guts display! I loved the BMF call out, but with Max challenging Topuria at 145, this is the fight to make for me – Hooker vs Gaethje, and this is a much tougher stylistic challenge for ‘The Hangman’. Get through this, though, and I would love that Hooker vs Max throwdown, but first things first… ‘The Highlight’ is there for huge, fun brawls, and Hooker will have his hands more than full here as he tries to climb yet further.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Michael Chandler – Michael Chandler probably needs to wake from his Conor McGregor fever dream before his career is put on ice permanently. I know at 38 he was looking for a huge pay day and a massive main event, but if it doesn’t happen, Chandler can still try to make one last surge up the rankings. He’s presently below Gamrot, hasn’t fought in nearly 2 years, and the clocks on. Fight or forfeit the rankings spot – does he still have it in him to compete at a high level or not?
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Marcin Tybura – The UFC tried for this fight in 2022, but a Tybura illness put paid to that. Fast forward a couple of years and Jairzinho surely climbs to #10 in the rankings with Tybura #9. Both of them have fought a lot of heavyweights, and while Tybura will likely look for an early takedown and submission, like he did to Tai, but I’m not sure it will be that easy… Jairzinho likes to fight off the back foot and he is accurate.
Tai Tuivasa vs Martin Buday – 5 losses in a row? Yeah, Tai will be fortunate if he’s not cut, I think a lot of people will expect it, and after tonight’s performance… sure, I can see it. But he has been a star in Australia and is a reliable main card mainstay, so… give him one last chance with a step down in competition. Buday may be 5-1 in the UFC, but he’s not been facing the highest level of competition, and a win over Tai would be a career best win without a shadow of a doubt. Can the Slovakian benefit from Tai’s seemingly unending skid? Or does Bam Bam shut his lights out?
Carlos Prates vs Michael Page – MVP owning that #14 spot in the welterweight rankings could soon become a ‘Nightmare’ for him as Carlos Prates just put on a career-defining beating (so far, anyway) on ‘The Leech’. The big, tall, super accurate striker needs someone who can hang and bang, and MVP has similarly been a major puzzle throughout his MMA career. If they don’t want to make the MVP-Wonderboy fight due to the dual-bladed stances, this one should be dynamite in a way that fight might miss!
I believe he called out Khaos Williams, which would be his fourth UFC fight (and probably the end of his current contract). I’m down for that too! But…
Jingliang Li vs Khaos Williams – ‘The Leech’ got dispatched in brutal fashion, his first KO defeat, and he could battered around the cage from start to finish. Okay, Khaos, over to you – how good are you? Can you replicate that? Li won’t go away easily, but as 6-2 Williams keeps climbing the ladder, he’ll likely guarantee himself a ranked opponent with a win here – but I don’t think he’s there just yet.
Valter Walker vs Justin Tafa – Valter Walker said he wants to take out Junior’s brother Justin, and why not? Justin just saw an unbeaten run snapped by a wrestler, Valter Walker probably tries to do something similar, but Justin is bigger and heavier than Junior and could be a tougher proposition. There’s a narrative here, so sure, why not?
Junior Tafa – BANISHMENT! Tafa slapped Valter after the fight, an absolute no-no in this sport, and refused to accept defeat gracefully. You’re gone, kid. It wasn’t the hardest slap ever, but that’s probably only because there were guys in the way. No thanks.
Ricardo Ramos vs David Onama – Ricardo Ramos managed to eek out a razor-thin decision against Josh Culibao despite having his leg massacred in Round 2. Ramos managed to tough it out, not something he has always done, and cleverly interjected some grappling in a crucial third round to steal the decision. Give him David Onama next. The athletic Ugandan is 4-2 in the UFC and picked up a huge win over Jonathan Pearce last time out but sullied it slightly by missing weight. That’s no way to get ranked opposition, but a big statement against Ramos (who has been finished in R1 on 4 separate occasions) might be the ticket.
Josh Culibao vs Christian Rodriguez – Culibao has somehow lost 3 fights in a row despite being a pretty legit fighter capable of mixing it with high(ish) level opposition. Culibao doesn’t seem to have a natural killer instinct, though, and he’ll be gutted if that costs him his job in the UFC. I wouldn’t cut him, personally, but his head is on the chopping block next time out. CRod is a fun prospect killer that was engaging in an entertaining scrap with Julian Erosa before being locked into a fight-ending guillotine, and he matches up against Culibao really, really nicely. Both are above that prospect-level at this point and should put on a very fun bout! We need this one!
Casey O’Neill vs Tracy Cortez – Casey O’Neill picks up what I believe is her first win as a ranked fighter, and she looked levels above the surging Luana Santos tonight. Tough, heavy, and with more impactful striking, O’Neill showed she belongs in that #15 spot. Despite defeat against Ariane Lipski (da Silva) in December of last year, I think she’s shown she’s ready for more ranked opposition. Tracy Cortez had the toughest of outs last time against Rose Namajunas, and there’s no shame in taking your first loss against such high-level opposition. Does that defeat motivate Tracy, or take its toll? I’d like to see how Cortez responds, and O’Neill is a good test.
Luana Santos vs Julija Stoliarenko – The Lithuanian has won 2 of her last 4, so despite an overall unimpressive UFC record of just 2-6, she might not be as close to getting cut as one might think. Still, she has a long way back to record parity, and she’s not going to get any easy fights given she has over 20 fights of experience by now. She’s the right level, the right range for Luana Santos to try to bounce back against, and as a Judoka it will be interesting to see if she plays the ground game with Julija or not – and if she does, does she work away with two fully-functioning arms?!
Jack Jenkins vs Gavin Tucker – Jack Jenkins wants to get back in there against the originally-scheduled opponent Gavin Tucker, and I’ve no issues with that. Tucker is a tough Canadian veteran but who is on a two-fight skid and been finished by both Dan Ige and Diego Lopes – if Jenkins can also finish Tucker, he’ll be in great company! Jenkins has those leg-shattering kicks, but also showed he has heat in his hands, too. While he took a little longer to break Burns down than some thought, he still looked very clean and composed, and seemed to take little damage in a multi-levelled affair against a potentially dangerous grappler.
Herbert Burns – QUIT! I mean, CUT! Sorry, Herbert, I’d like to see you grapple a bit, there’s a lot of fun platforms for that, but MMA… not so much.
Tom Nolan vs Alex Munoz – It feels like 24 year old Tom Nolan is going to need a lot of patience if he is to realize his potential. The 6’3 lightweight can execute most of the moves you’d expect but doesn’t seem to be able to put them together very well, and looks very, very green. Failing to put away Alex Reyes doesn’t reflect well, but we move on, I’d give him Alex Munoz next, another very, very inactive fighter, this time out of Team Alpha Male and coming off a win. Nolan needs these kinds of fights, I wouldn’t be giving him any of the other young, hungry lions in the UFC at this stage, we saw what happened against Nikolas Motta and it didn’t end well for ‘Big Train’. Keep him in the same ballpark for now, and see how he deals with Munoz’ TAM offensive.
Alex Reyes – CUT! Reyes did better than almost everybody expected, but never really threatened to overwhelm or out-gun Nolan. His 0-3 run in the UFC has taken the better part of a decade to come to fruition, and at 37, I’d let him go. It’s sad what happened to the man, but he’s come out the other end and should be a useful guy to have around the gym.
Kenan Song vs Muslim Salikhov – Song Kenan beat up Ricky Glenn but got tagged early and didn’t look especially fast or explosive tonight. I think he’d suit a knock-down, drag-out affair with old warhorse Muslim Salikhov next. Both like to strike, both have real power, and this will give us a better idea of whether Song is just starting to slow down or not… both coming off much-needed wins against other veteran scrappers, Song needs to show he’s still get an extra step in his stride against the 40 year old.
Ricky Glenn vs Michael Chiesa – Ricky Glenn is in real danger of getting cut. He’s just 4-6-1 overall in the UFC and he’s on a 3-fight skid. Most guys are gone – but Glenn is a gutsy veteran who hasn’t got an ounce of quit in him, and the UFC sometimes gives these guys more chances. If they do keep him, I can see Michael Chiesa getting the call to face him next, Chiesa just extended Tony Ferguson’s historic losing streak, he could become something of a hatchet man in the welterweight division as he sends fun fighters packing in consecutive fights – Chiesa himself is rebuilding himself after a 3-fight skid.
Jesus Aguilar vs Rafael Estevam – Aguilar sunk in yet another guillotine and put Stewart Nicoll to sleep! Weight miss aside, that’s an impressive win for the Mexican, as Nicoll can do it all in the cage (except, seemingly, defend much-expected guilly’s!). Aguilar snatches the 0, though, on foreign soil and I’d like to see him head to Brazil next and face another undefeated fighter who, like Aguilar, missed weight last time out. Rafael Estevam defeated Charles Johnson in his UFC debut, but hasn’t fought since (Johnson is 3-0 since then, BTW). Aguilar vs Estevam is an opportunity for both to put the weight misses behind them and show they have a future at 125.
Stewart Nicoll vs Mitch Raposo – I watched a bit of Nicoll’s tape and liked what I saw, particularly in the wrestling/grappling stakes, but all that study seems a bit of a waste! Nah, Nicoll will be back, he has ability, I’d like to see him face another fighter who came in and immediately went 0-1 in the UFC, Mitch Raposo. Both are 5’5, both were undefeated prior to entering the big leagues, though Raposo now has losses on all of TUF, DWCS, and the UFC proper(!). Someone’s gonna kickstart there career here in what I expect to be a fast-paced and action-packed affair that might get overlooked a little due to their respective starts.
