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- Jul 8, 2021
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Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad – Let’s settle the score. Look, neither welterweight fight was dynamite tonight, so to keep Belal at bay by saying he isn’t exciting doesn’t really work. Just give him the shot, they fought before, Leon looked better, but let Leon prove it – or Belal rise to the top. Winner of Shavkat-Colby awaits the winner.
Colby Covington vs Shavkat Rakhmonov – Assuming Colby doesn’t retire after a very poor performance, I’d like to see him fight Shavkat. Shavkat is deadly when he’s at his methodical best, but is hittable, and Colby might have a chance – unless he performs like he did tonight, in which case he can pass the torch to the Kazakh.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brendan Moreno/Amir Albazi Winner – I don’t think there’s much doubt about this one. The champion dominated tonight and should rightly face the winner of the #1 vs #2 fight. I’m surprised the UFC doesn’t book this kinda stuff more often…
Brandon Royval vs Muhammad Mokaev/Alex Perez Winner – Royval has beaten guys like KKF and Matheus Nicolau, so I’m looking for something fresh. If Perez drops out as many are predicting, Royval would do well to jump in against Mokaev anyway. That looks like the fight to make.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Colby Covington (see above)
Stephen Thompson vs Jack Della Maddalena – Wonderboy is still a great test for the right opponent, so unless he retires, I’m happy to book him against other ranked fighters he could potentially teach lessons to. JDM isn’t the perfect fighter, but at just 27 he has huge potential. Trajectories meet in the middle here.
Paddy Pimblett vs Drew Dober – 21-3, 5-0 in the UFC, just beat a ‘name’ fighter… Paddy has to fight a ranked opponent next or that’s straight up BS. Drew Dober has been calling for this fight for some time, and as the #15 ranked fighter, this is kinda the fight that makes the most sense. (also: please, please, please learn to tuck your chin, Paddy, not after you’ve moved, but before, during AND after!)
Tony Ferguson – RETIRE/CUT – Whichever comes first. Tony is a spent force, but credit to him for hanging tough.
Josh Emmett vs Giga Chikadze – I know Josh said he’ll fight next week, but let’s rebook this fight with Giga. Josh Emmett reinforced his scary KO power tonight with one of the most frightening one shot finishes in recent memory, but he’s still potentially susceptible to a more varied striking attack – which, theoretically, Giga possesses. Once Giga is back from his groin issue, I’d love to see this one.
Bryce Mitchell – Recover! I dunno, man, give that kid some time off… and then maybe someone like Lerone Murphy?
Alonzo Menifield vs Ryan Spann – #14 Alonzo Menifield keeps rolling with a hard fought win over #15 Dustin Jacoby, now I’d like to see him look up the rankings at #11 Ryan Spann, a dude on a 2-fight skid but who is super dangerous. These guys are generally finishers yet both are coming off decisions, so both are likely to want to show what they can get done here. Two big, nasty light heavyweights who could post their career best win here. Make it so!
Dustin Jacoby vs Vitor Petrino – Dustin Jacoby has now lost 3 of his last 4, and was out-struck by a powerful boxer in Alonzo Menifield tonight. That’s got to hurt, and the door might be closing on Jacoby ever making a really serious dent in the top 15. He now needs to defend his ranking against someone on a win streak, and Vitor Petrino looks like a good opponent having just beaten Modestas Bukauskas and improved to 3-0 in the UFC!
Irene Aldana vs Julianna Pena – With Pennington-Bueno Silva booked for the vacant belt, I’d really like to see Pena and Aldana duke it out to challenge the winner. Aldana is a warrior and that was a great fight, so there’s every chance Aldana just heads the queue anyway, but Aldana-Pena just has a certain appeal. Hopefully given how slowly this division moves there’s time to fit this in.
Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad – Both ranked fighters are 1-2 in their last 3, but at 28 vs 32 years of age, they still have a little bit of time on their side. Both have now fought 9 times in the UFC, Pannie is ranked slightly ahead of Rosa, but there’s not a lot in it at this stage. Looks like a solid booking.
Cody Garbrandt vs Chris Gutierrez – Call me crazy, but Cody’s R1KO of Brian Kelleher earns him a fight against someone decent, and Chris Gutierrez is ticks a few boxes: he’s ranked #15, he isn’t a brutal KO artist, he has some great leg kicks (that could be a weakness if tonight is anything to go by), and he’s coming off a performance that means he absolutely should be defending his ranking. CG vs CG? Team Alpha Male vs Factory X, there’s quite a bit here to get our teeth into before we even consider a quite frankly silly call out of Deiveson Figueiredo. Win this, and he should get Dominick Cruz next.
Brian Kelleher – CUT! 3 first round stoppage losses in a row, 37 year old Kelleher just doesn’t have it anymore, and his last 4 wins are all poor fighters who have all since been cut. Keller will follow them out the door, in my opinion, but can still be very proud of his career.
Ariane Lipski vs Natalia Silva – All Brazilian fight makes sense after Lipski put in a career best performance, not only beating down Casey O’Neill in impressive fashion, but also damn near (or perhaps actually) breaking her arm for the sub! Natalia is 4-0 in the UFC and one of the new generation of flyweights breaking through from Brazil – it’s taken Lipski a lot longer to get to the same stage, but that experience and evolution is worth putting to the test against another capable finisher. Let’s see who rolls on.
Casey O’Neill vs Maryna Moroz – Both fighters on a 2 fight skid, both flirted with the rankings but have surely now dropped out for a while, this is a must-not-lose contest for both fighters. Casey O’Neill perhaps hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype, but veteran Moroz finds herself in an almost identical position. Book it, let’s see who pulls through here.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kai Kara-France – Tagir just mopped the floor with #15 ranked Cody Durden, constantly threatening submissions before eventually locking in an RNC in R2. I know Matt Schnell makes a sensible next step especially given Tagir lost to veteran Tim Elliott, but I think aim for a bigger fight against KKF who is on a 2-fight skid. KKF lost last time to Amir Albazi, he most certainly won’t want to lose to another dynamic grappler – but he has to prove he can win rounds against this style and prove he really is a top 5 talent.
Cody Durden vs Tatsuro Taira – If Durden remains #15, then it’s Tatsuro time! Durden was finished in R1 by Mokaev, who Taira is often compared with, but has shown real toughness since then and is a valid test for the skilled Taira without being a major danger to TT’s momentum outside of a grinding decision win. Taira wins, he’s ranked.
Andre Fili vs Gabriel Miranda – Miranda might only be 1-1 in the UFC, but his loss was to Benoit St Denis and then he stopped Shane Young in under a minute. Fili’s been on a bad run, and while a veteran, I’m not interested in stepping him up too far just yet. Give him another big record UFC newcomer from Brazil and see if he can repeat the result.
Lucas Almeida vs Steven Nguyen – Almeida has had 3 veterans for his first 3 outings, and after going 1-2 I think it’s fair to step him down some. Steven Nguyen is 2-0 on the Contender Series and got his contract last time out. This is a tough first fight for Nguyen, but he might just be able to capitalize on Almeida being off form right now. He struggled badly for accuracy tonight.
Shamil Gaziev vs Rodrigo Nascimento – Undefeated heavyweight Shamil Gaziev walked in against a dude 4-0 in the UFC and just lit him up, easily defended his takedown attempt, and cruised to a second round stoppage. Giving him #14 in such a shallow division is the right call, nobody has time for endless fights just to build his record. He’s clearly good.
Martin Buday vs Don’Tale Mayes – Two fighters who have flirted with rankings consideration, but after Buday got LIT UP and Mayes lost to Nascimento last time out and sports a negative UFC record overall, I see this one as an ideal follow up. Both need a recognisable win, and whoever wins kinda gets it.
Colby Covington vs Shavkat Rakhmonov – Assuming Colby doesn’t retire after a very poor performance, I’d like to see him fight Shavkat. Shavkat is deadly when he’s at his methodical best, but is hittable, and Colby might have a chance – unless he performs like he did tonight, in which case he can pass the torch to the Kazakh.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brendan Moreno/Amir Albazi Winner – I don’t think there’s much doubt about this one. The champion dominated tonight and should rightly face the winner of the #1 vs #2 fight. I’m surprised the UFC doesn’t book this kinda stuff more often…
Brandon Royval vs Muhammad Mokaev/Alex Perez Winner – Royval has beaten guys like KKF and Matheus Nicolau, so I’m looking for something fresh. If Perez drops out as many are predicting, Royval would do well to jump in against Mokaev anyway. That looks like the fight to make.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Colby Covington (see above)
Stephen Thompson vs Jack Della Maddalena – Wonderboy is still a great test for the right opponent, so unless he retires, I’m happy to book him against other ranked fighters he could potentially teach lessons to. JDM isn’t the perfect fighter, but at just 27 he has huge potential. Trajectories meet in the middle here.
Paddy Pimblett vs Drew Dober – 21-3, 5-0 in the UFC, just beat a ‘name’ fighter… Paddy has to fight a ranked opponent next or that’s straight up BS. Drew Dober has been calling for this fight for some time, and as the #15 ranked fighter, this is kinda the fight that makes the most sense. (also: please, please, please learn to tuck your chin, Paddy, not after you’ve moved, but before, during AND after!)
Tony Ferguson – RETIRE/CUT – Whichever comes first. Tony is a spent force, but credit to him for hanging tough.
Josh Emmett vs Giga Chikadze – I know Josh said he’ll fight next week, but let’s rebook this fight with Giga. Josh Emmett reinforced his scary KO power tonight with one of the most frightening one shot finishes in recent memory, but he’s still potentially susceptible to a more varied striking attack – which, theoretically, Giga possesses. Once Giga is back from his groin issue, I’d love to see this one.
Bryce Mitchell – Recover! I dunno, man, give that kid some time off… and then maybe someone like Lerone Murphy?
Alonzo Menifield vs Ryan Spann – #14 Alonzo Menifield keeps rolling with a hard fought win over #15 Dustin Jacoby, now I’d like to see him look up the rankings at #11 Ryan Spann, a dude on a 2-fight skid but who is super dangerous. These guys are generally finishers yet both are coming off decisions, so both are likely to want to show what they can get done here. Two big, nasty light heavyweights who could post their career best win here. Make it so!
Dustin Jacoby vs Vitor Petrino – Dustin Jacoby has now lost 3 of his last 4, and was out-struck by a powerful boxer in Alonzo Menifield tonight. That’s got to hurt, and the door might be closing on Jacoby ever making a really serious dent in the top 15. He now needs to defend his ranking against someone on a win streak, and Vitor Petrino looks like a good opponent having just beaten Modestas Bukauskas and improved to 3-0 in the UFC!
Irene Aldana vs Julianna Pena – With Pennington-Bueno Silva booked for the vacant belt, I’d really like to see Pena and Aldana duke it out to challenge the winner. Aldana is a warrior and that was a great fight, so there’s every chance Aldana just heads the queue anyway, but Aldana-Pena just has a certain appeal. Hopefully given how slowly this division moves there’s time to fit this in.
Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad – Both ranked fighters are 1-2 in their last 3, but at 28 vs 32 years of age, they still have a little bit of time on their side. Both have now fought 9 times in the UFC, Pannie is ranked slightly ahead of Rosa, but there’s not a lot in it at this stage. Looks like a solid booking.
Cody Garbrandt vs Chris Gutierrez – Call me crazy, but Cody’s R1KO of Brian Kelleher earns him a fight against someone decent, and Chris Gutierrez is ticks a few boxes: he’s ranked #15, he isn’t a brutal KO artist, he has some great leg kicks (that could be a weakness if tonight is anything to go by), and he’s coming off a performance that means he absolutely should be defending his ranking. CG vs CG? Team Alpha Male vs Factory X, there’s quite a bit here to get our teeth into before we even consider a quite frankly silly call out of Deiveson Figueiredo. Win this, and he should get Dominick Cruz next.
Brian Kelleher – CUT! 3 first round stoppage losses in a row, 37 year old Kelleher just doesn’t have it anymore, and his last 4 wins are all poor fighters who have all since been cut. Keller will follow them out the door, in my opinion, but can still be very proud of his career.
Ariane Lipski vs Natalia Silva – All Brazilian fight makes sense after Lipski put in a career best performance, not only beating down Casey O’Neill in impressive fashion, but also damn near (or perhaps actually) breaking her arm for the sub! Natalia is 4-0 in the UFC and one of the new generation of flyweights breaking through from Brazil – it’s taken Lipski a lot longer to get to the same stage, but that experience and evolution is worth putting to the test against another capable finisher. Let’s see who rolls on.
Casey O’Neill vs Maryna Moroz – Both fighters on a 2 fight skid, both flirted with the rankings but have surely now dropped out for a while, this is a must-not-lose contest for both fighters. Casey O’Neill perhaps hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype, but veteran Moroz finds herself in an almost identical position. Book it, let’s see who pulls through here.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kai Kara-France – Tagir just mopped the floor with #15 ranked Cody Durden, constantly threatening submissions before eventually locking in an RNC in R2. I know Matt Schnell makes a sensible next step especially given Tagir lost to veteran Tim Elliott, but I think aim for a bigger fight against KKF who is on a 2-fight skid. KKF lost last time to Amir Albazi, he most certainly won’t want to lose to another dynamic grappler – but he has to prove he can win rounds against this style and prove he really is a top 5 talent.
Cody Durden vs Tatsuro Taira – If Durden remains #15, then it’s Tatsuro time! Durden was finished in R1 by Mokaev, who Taira is often compared with, but has shown real toughness since then and is a valid test for the skilled Taira without being a major danger to TT’s momentum outside of a grinding decision win. Taira wins, he’s ranked.
Andre Fili vs Gabriel Miranda – Miranda might only be 1-1 in the UFC, but his loss was to Benoit St Denis and then he stopped Shane Young in under a minute. Fili’s been on a bad run, and while a veteran, I’m not interested in stepping him up too far just yet. Give him another big record UFC newcomer from Brazil and see if he can repeat the result.
Lucas Almeida vs Steven Nguyen – Almeida has had 3 veterans for his first 3 outings, and after going 1-2 I think it’s fair to step him down some. Steven Nguyen is 2-0 on the Contender Series and got his contract last time out. This is a tough first fight for Nguyen, but he might just be able to capitalize on Almeida being off form right now. He struggled badly for accuracy tonight.
Shamil Gaziev vs Rodrigo Nascimento – Undefeated heavyweight Shamil Gaziev walked in against a dude 4-0 in the UFC and just lit him up, easily defended his takedown attempt, and cruised to a second round stoppage. Giving him #14 in such a shallow division is the right call, nobody has time for endless fights just to build his record. He’s clearly good.
Martin Buday vs Don’Tale Mayes – Two fighters who have flirted with rankings consideration, but after Buday got LIT UP and Mayes lost to Nascimento last time out and sports a negative UFC record overall, I see this one as an ideal follow up. Both need a recognisable win, and whoever wins kinda gets it.
