Everyone on the pro Gane/he beats Tom train - Who is still Tom beats Gane wagon?

FTHELayNPray

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I'll try and remember this thread and catch some sour milk aged takes when Tom wins and the haters dip out like they tried to make king ankalev a thing. Stamp your Tom beats Gane prediction now for mystic takes. Will bump in 2026.
 
Some of them are pretending like the round was totally one-sided and Aspinall was just looking for a way out.

When in reality it was very close and Aspinall had the more damaging shots and was starting to find his range the deeper it went.
Open photo
 
Some of them are pretending like the round was totally one-sided and Aspinall was just looking for a way out.

When in reality it was very close and Aspinall had the more damaging shots and was starting to find his range the deeper it went.
Open photo
Yea fight seemed completely even until the eyepoke.
 
I passed on betting the fight (just a small prop play on Aspinall sub that was refunded) because the money line was so wide. Too much volatility at HW and in MMA in general to pay -450 juice.

I'm now excited to see the betting line for the rematch and get a good price on Aspinall.
 
Tonight was Ganes opportunity to beat Tom. I think the rematch, Tom comes in more relaxed.
 
I passed on betting the fight (just a small prop play on Aspinall sub that was refunded) because the money line was so wide. Too much volatility at HW and in MMA in general to pay -450 juice.

I'm now excited to see the betting line for the rematch and get a good price on Aspinall.
With how casuals are acting and likely betting we are going to get very good odds because there's too much "Gane was winning and Tom was about to gas" talk out there that it's going to be way closer than it should be.
 
I'll try and remember this thread and catch some sour milk aged takes when Tom wins and the haters dip out like they tried to make king ankalev a thing. Stamp your Tom beats Gane prediction now for mystic takes. Will bump in 2026.
Fight pretty much as I expected. Tom is no elite wrestler.

His overall grappling is leagues above Gane but its of little use until he gets it there.

(IE. His grappling is enough to negate Jones advantage there, so Jones would not be able to do what he did to Gane).

Strikingwise Gane is a little faster but Tom hits harder.

If it stays on the feet with no KO or KD Gane is likely winning. If there is a KO or KD its likely Tom doing it to Gane.

No surprise if Tom gets that but no surprise if he doesnt.

Only surprise would be Gane winning via Sub or surviving a whole round on the ground if somehow it goes there
 
Gane stopping one takedown doesn't convince me that the grappling has been completely nullified.
 
Some of them are pretending like the round was totally one-sided and Aspinall was just looking for a way out.

When in reality it was very close and Aspinall had the more damaging shots and was starting to find his range the deeper it went.
Open photo
Tom's nose was bloodied but he landed the damaging shots? hmmmm... vewwwy interwesting.
 
Tom's nose was bloodied but he landed the damaging shots? hmmmm... vewwwy interwesting.
Aspinall snapped Gane's head back a few times. Just because Gane landed on a sensitive part of the face with a little blood doesn't mean he landed the heavier shots.
 
Gane stopping one takedown doesn't convince me that the grappling has been completely nullified.
It was barely even a takedown attempt. Tom gave up on it before it could really be defended. That lack of decisiveness by Tom is part of why a lot of people think the round wasn't as close as it ended up being; it wasn't a good look and it was unexpected from Aspinall, but it's also not something that matters in scoring a fight.
 
Some of them are pretending like the round was totally one-sided and Aspinall was just looking for a way out.

When in reality it was very close and Aspinall had the more damaging shots and was starting to find his range the deeper it went.
Open photo
Gane was obviously 10% better and then Tom quit

thanks for the stats.
 
Gane was obviously 10% better and then Tom quit

thanks for the stats.
Even if Gane was slightly better up to that point, the round was close enough where one big shot from Tom near the end could've given him the round (or even win perhaps).

But you know that.
 
Even if Gane was slightly better, the round was close enough where one big shot from Tom near the end could've given him the round (or even win perhaps).

But you know that.
no because then it would be 28 to 30 strikes landed

unless you're saying Tom could get a knockdown, but hard to do with a broken and bloody face in round 1
 
no because then it would be 28 to 30 strikes landed

unless you're saying Tom could get a knockdown, but hard to do with a broken and bloody face in round 1
Because every strike is the same? Pretty sure I saw him snap Gane's head back a few times and start to find his range near the end before that very sus eye poke.
 
Tom beats Gane
But Gane has shown to be a serial cheater and needs to banished to PFL
 
Another thing that needs to be examined is this, while Tom has shown a good chin thus far. Gane in less than 1 round landed on Tom more than all his opponents since 2021 put together! And he also immediately started showing visible damage, how much punishment can he take? And is Gane a better pure boxer? he certainly looked like it.

I already believed Tom didn't have good offensive wrestling, and that wasn't really disproven either. Tom is capable of finishing anyone as long as he can retain that youthful speed and explosiveness, but that stuff goes quickly, and I feel we are a year or two from that not being nearly the factor it's been up until this point.



Neither guy was able to avoid a single low kick, but Gane had Aspinall beat on volume, he was more accurate and showed better defense.

Gane looked great, you could tell he was ready and prepared. It would be unfortunate if this fight isn't rebooked as soon as possible, and even then, we were robbed of something epic. In a rematch Aspinall is the one coming in with more doubts, which may impact his performance and mentality.

Also this isn't being spoken of much, but with 35 seconds left in the round, Aspinall darted in with his usual left hook to set up his right strait and Gane beautifully countered him on the chin with a right jab that intercepted the left hook and stumbled Aspinall. Gane was beating him to the punch on several occasions. In Tom's UFC career he has never fought a southpaw, and Gane just out struck him over roughly 5 minutes by going southpaw.

Aspinall doesn't have a real answer for the southpaw stance, that's what Gane and his camp may have theorized. Once Aspinall couldn't deal with southpaw, he would switch to southpaw himself to get off kicks, but he'd leave his chin in the air and Gane would narrowly miss counters. Aspinall isn't a better inside low kicker than Gane, so staying in orthodox sucks for him if the punches aren't landing. The roundhouse was the best weapon for Aspinall in this fight, but the jury is out on whether he really has the stamina to continue that type of attack over 2 rounds, let alone 5. The roundhouse feint is what will be needed to deter Gane from committing to lots of jabs. Gane is the more advanced striker without question, but Aspinall has enough of an X factor where he can still beat anyone at anytime.



Might seem crazy to you guys, but what you saw was the beginning of the end for Aspinall. Any good coach will pick up on this stuff. He doesn't do well or have many answers for southpaws at this time, and that probably won't change. Jon, Alex, and Gane can all fight in both stances, so some of these fights look much different to me now, as I'm sure it does for them as well. Any orthodox fighter who's ever boxed knows fighting a southpaw is a pain, and if you don't know what your doing you will get jabbed on your nose all fight, and that's EXACTLY what happened to Aspinall. Luckily for Aspinall all the dangerous stance switchers are basically at the end of their careers.


What Jones understood about the Gane fight was that he needed to stay within range, it wasn't going to be pretty. Aspinall tried to stay at range and work his way through the fight, and that isn't the optimal way to draw mistakes out of Gane.
 
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