I'm also backing Munhoz. Not super confident, but I like him as an underdog here. Ask me this same question a year ago and I would have laughed and told you that Pedro was totally washed while Chito was surging and borderline elite. But I don't believe either of those things anymore. Pedro's ability to go tit-for-tat with a younger, fresher technical kickboxer in Gutierrez who was on a streak with momentum said a lot to me. I think him being a generally fast starter will actually be to his advantage here: he'll come out, secure the first two rounds by simply being more active than Chito, and then weather the storm late. He can play the leg kick game with Vera and also hits quite hard himself and is willing to brawl when necessary. Chito's willingness to give up the first round isn't a huge deal in Main Events, but it is a
massive liability in a three-round fight and I don't know that he will be able to dig himself out of that hole if he does it yet again here. After all, Pedro's chin is legendary. He seems practically impossible to wobble, let alone drop or KO -- so Vera's staple tactic of falling behind and then finding the big moment late is by no means something to be relied upon here.
As an aside, Pedro is in my estimation the one who's more likely to initiate the grappling here. He shot takedowns on Garbrandt, Cruz, and Gutierrez. Vera has the worst takedown defense and get-ups of anyone in the Top 10, so even if Munhoz isn't that great of a wrestler I would wager that the chances of him getting Chito down aren't all that small -- to say nothing of the chances of it ending up on the mat via a slip, caught kick, or some other weird occurrence. And once it's there... Pedro is the much better grappler and can probably bank a round for himself.
So you would say he was losing till he won?
that’s just his style, take your best shots then kick your ass
Part of the game is being able to take shots and being able to dish it back out
Look, I will always credit Chito for the timing, accuracy, patience, power, and toughness that he clearly possesses to win fights in spite of the deficiencies in his style/skill set. But there's really no getting around the fact that willfully getting behind on volume and activity and seemingly going out of one's way to cede the first round of every contest you partake in is not a particularly tenable strategy at the elite level of MMA. This is putting aside the massive holes which exist in his defensive wrestling.
