Darren Till vs Kelvin Gastelum - Is it in Kelvin's favour as much as we think (Stats Inside)

[GSP Rush]

The other thread was getting a bit congested so I thought I'd start a new discussion in regards to this as watching the Maia and Askren event last night during a promo I noticed these stats which were very interesting.

Going by these it's closer than we think, in fact some of these are more favourable to Till and where as that doesn't take away how quick and fast Kelvin is I still thought this was very interesting.

People keep talking about Till's chin but he's only been KO'd once in his career, remember what Woodley said in regards to WHY he went for the submission so as much as we saw the devastating KO from Masvidal I still wouldn't be 100% certain Till will get KO'd so easily, specially with less weight cut.

Anyway it's going to be a tough fight though I thought I'd share these stats, what do you think?

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[BRASIL WAND]

Till would do himself a massive favor taking Kelvin to the later rounds. He has the pace that can maintain power later in fights.

However that “less weight cut” stuff didn’t seem to help Weidman or Rockhold.

 

[bubbleboyjones]

Till would do himself a massive favor taking Kelvin to the later rounds. He a the pace that can maintain power later in fights.

However that “less weight cut” stuff didn’t seem to help Weidman or Rockhold.

Thats literally a bold statement

 

[GSP Rush]

Till would do himself a massive favor taking Kelvin to the later rounds. He a the pace that can maintain power later in fights.

However that “less weight cut” stuff didn’t seem to help Weidman or Rockhold.

It's a very premature statement to say about Till's chin and the weight cut when he's only been KO'd once.

The catch 22 is they hit harder in this weight class but not cutting as much weight obviously you're less prone to being KO'd as easily, that's not to say it won't happen (it quite possibly might) but you get what I mean.

The stats are closer than we think, I didn't realise until I saw this yesterday during the Askren and Maia event

I kinda get the feeling people are voting without taking on the new stats on board a little because they are interesting.

 

[jojoRed]

Till would do himself a massive favor taking Kelvin to the later rounds. He a the pace that can maintain power later in fights.

However that “less weight cut” stuff didn’t seem to help Weidman or Rockhold.

This fight will tell us the level of Till's striking.

 

[GSP Rush]

This fight will tell us the level of Till's striking.

Yeah, this is what I mean about those stats being very interesting.

It's also why I say people are voting without taking on board what I've shared with the stats, of course I get to many they might say it might make no difference but I think it is something to take on board as opposed to previously.

It's closer than we thought going by that which I didn't realise, it's something to take on board for sure.

 

[RVCA]

I think Gastelum may be damaged goods after the 5 concussions he suffered in the 5th round against Israel

I really like Till's chances in this fight

 

[GSP Rush]

People forget too, Kelvin did get knocked down quite a bit by Izzy, again I'm not saying it's not favourable to Kelvin still (I feel it is a very tough fight for Till) but there's a lot to think about here.

 

[GSP Rush]

I think Gastelum may be damaged goods after the 5 concussions he suffered in the 5th round against Israel

I really like Till's chances in this fight

Yeah, I think we've all written Till off a little too much, I do still favour Kelvin if I'm honest but like I say with those stats and what I mentioned above also with the Izzy fight.

It's going to be a good fight and Till isn't going to want to lose, whether he does will see but you get my point

 

[MakeSherdogGreatAgain]

I gotta go with Gastelum just based on strength of schedule. He's been fighting killers, and Till's biggest win was a very close fight against Wonderboy. He has been dominated by every other high level guy he has fought. He was arguably winning against Masvidal until the ko, but a ko is about as decisive as it gets so there was no argument about who won.

Maybe Till has a career resurgence at 185 It's possible. It did work for Gastelum.

 

[JustBleed69]

Till would do himself a massive favor taking Kelvin to the later rounds. He has the pace that can maintain power later in fights.

However that “less weight cut” stuff didn’t seem to help Weidman or Rockhold.

Why the fuck are all your posts in bold lettering?

 

[BRASIL WAND]

People forget too, Kelvin did get knocked down quite a bit by Izzy, again I'm not saying it's not favourable to Kelvin still (I feel it is a very tough fight for Till) but there's a lot to think about here.

Kelvins chin is NOT in question, his gas tank is. And I believe Till should exploit it.

The reason Adesanya was able to tee off later in the fight is because Kelvin considerably slows down. His striking becomes labored, offensive grappling nonexistent, and most of all his striking defense is almost a nonfactor.

I just realized it’s a 3 rounder... Till better bring that pace m8.

 

[GSP Rush]

I gotta go with Gastelum just based on strength of schedule. He's been fighting killers, and Till's biggest win was a very close fight against Wonderboy. He has been dominated by every other high level guy he has fought. He was arguably winning against Masvidal until the ko, but a ko is about as decisive as it gets so there was no argument about who won.

Maybe Till has a career resurgence at 185 It's possible. It did work for Gastelum.

I hear you, I can see where you're coming from with this.

It is one of those things where there's lots of unanswered questions with Till and the weight move, people say it didn't work out for so and so but forget that it worked out for others so we really don't know.

I agree with Kelvin although as the fight went on with Izzy we did see Kelvin go down a few times, does Till hit harder than Izzy (I would say so) and Till's striking accuracy is slightly better than Kelvin's there but Kelvin's a tough dude, I also see it in his favour still and what you mentioned also is very valid however it is much closer than we initially thought I reckon when this fight was first announced.

 

[GSP Rush]

Kelvins chin is NOT in question, his gas tank is. And I believe Till should exploit it.

The reason Adesanya was able to tee off later in the fight is because Kelvin considerably slows down. His striking becomes labored, offensive grappling nonexistent, and most of all his striking defense is almost a nonfactor.

I just realized it’s a 3 rounder... Till better bring that pace m8.

Valid points.

Till does like to take the lead with the pace too in his fights so this will be interesting to see if he can do that with Gastelum.

 

[Pious Augustus]

Gastelum by decision 29-28 till will drop him

 

[BRASIL WAND]

Why the fuck are all your posts in bold lettering?

Answer: Because font triggers little women like you.

 

[Sensee]

I lean towards Kelvin winning BUT I certainly wouldn't count Till out. It's a good match up and we'll see how not cutting as much weight works out. I like this fight quite a bit.

 

[Schaub]

I've got Till by TKO/KO, because this is a fickle sport that enjoys going against statistics and form.

As others have said, Kelvin's weakness is his cardio, which Till has for days. Kelvin was also dropped several times by a lanky striker in his last fight.

 

[Herwald]

I just hope, afterwards, neither of them get fed to Ben Askren.

... Kelvin was also dropped several times by a lanky striker in his last fight.

He's lost to all the lanky rangy guys (Magny, Izzy and Weidman), except Hall. But Till's not really lanky. 6 feet tall, 74.5" reach is almost the exact same as Tim Kennedy, Vitor Belfort, Nate Marquardt and that Swedish Nico guy Kelvin fought. Bisping's close to it as well.

 

[VVarhead]

Gastelum by anything he wants. If he touches Till, he's going down, if he doesn't he can just use his great wrestling.

Literally bet your house on this fight, it's fucking free money.
Edit: I'm of course willing to take Account, AV and signature bets on this fight if anyone is crazy enough to believe Till is gonna win.