COVID-19 Breaking News - Version 15: UK PM Boris Johnson out of ICU

[K1levelgrappler]

lol

 

[Revolver]

Good. I thought we'd lost you for a second.

Lol. I thought I’ve made my stance clear on this situation before. Not a “just the flu bro”

 

[Voodoo_Child906]

Yeah, it's all starting to come together. And that insanely high R0 also explains all the stress on the health care system. It's not much more deadly than the flu (no, not a just-the-flu-bro, as most should know), but the flu has an R0=1,3 (in The Netherlands at least), and this SOB seems to be closer to 6!!!

6 is huge for the flu, crazy to think that Measles has a value of 12-18.

 

[ShinkanPo]

Transmission by aerosol droplets makes this especially infectious. Imagine a carrier sneezing or coughing in an enclosed space (i.e elevator) and left. Invisible droplets can stay in the air for up to 2 hours. You walk in a few minutes later assuming no one is there. Unfortunately you just breathed in thousands of droplets without realizing it. It's game over, no physical contact needed.

Cough and sneeze can spray those droplets for up to 8 feet. Even talking can do the same but to a shorter distance. That's why we need mask and social distancing.

Yeah we need enforced mask wearing inside markets.

But there seems to be deliberate disinformation about masks.

 

[Queen B]

NYC officially has 1% of the population tested positive for COVID.

In reality thats probably about 10% total population infected

 

[Overtures]

If you have a cold, can you get the Rona?

maybe one virus makes it harder for another to latch on

In which case we should just give ourselves colds for two months

 

[Gomi1977]

@Gomi1977 taking your figure of 0.08%, we would be at 2.5M infections for Germany (about 3% of the population or 1 in about 35). This coincides well with many people's gut feeling. Taken together with the assumption from the study mentioned earlier that we need >80% to assume herd immunity and contain this motherfucker, it would imply 50k deaths for Germany.

For the US, it would mean about 5% infected (obviously way way higher for NYC).

BTW, I feel the percentage of hospitalisations of 0,29% gives a better, more accurate, and more up to date figure for estimating the actual total number of infections, since there's less time between infection and hospitalisation than there is between infection and death.

Edit: plus, a lot of deaths are not counted in the official numbers, since they were not tested for the virus, like in nursing homes for instance. Like I said, I'm working on those numbers, hoping to have the totals for up to and including week 13 this Friday or Saturday, and we can work from that. Numbers appear to be FAR higher though, as in double/ triple the reported figures, which is kinda scary. Guesstimate says figures up till March 29th could be as much as three times the official figures, based on weekly averages over multiple years, and guesstimates with regards to the flu, based on official numbers. Official 1068, my Guesstimate for now is 3179.

 

[Gomi1977]

6 is huge for the flu, crazy to think that Measles has a value of 12-18.

6 for COVID-19, though I'm sure you meant to say that.
Yeah, the measles is ridiculous, which is why we vaccinate, at least, the mentally sane among us do.

 

[irish_thug]

Lol. I thought I’ve made my stance clear on this situation before. Not a “just the flu bro”

Oh I know

 

[Orgasmo]

Yeah we need enforced mask wearing inside markets.

But there seems to be deliberate disinformation about masks.

I don't think it's information as much as necessity.

Reality is that we don't have enough mask for everybody at the moment, and not for the foreseeable future. In this case, you want to mask to go to medical staff, patients and essential services workers who are at the greatest risk of exposure. In this case, we have to ration our supplies. For normal individual, there is zero reason why you need N95.

 

[Rod1]

I think its true that in time of crisis people can get a bit religious, im agnostic in nature, i assume that man cant tell if a god exists or not, we can only know what we can prove empirically.

But boy in this trying times im clearly remembering more of my catholic upbringing, also despite these trying times, im fucking glad to either chance or whatever superior power exists that this isnt affecting children.

I just read in the news that in Chiapas an 8 months baby was infected, no symptoms, they just did the test because the mother was infected. Jesus while old people dying in mass is heartbreaking, there is nothing more sad in the world than children's coffins and babies in life support.

I dont mind if this shit gets me, but im glad at least it wont kill my daughter.

 

[Wadtucket]

For normal individual, there is zero reason why you need N95.

False. You need them when you're doing work around the house involving fumes and dust. You also need them when somebody in your household gets sick and you take care of them at home. Stop mask shaming.

 

[ShinkanPo]

lol

Some Town elders in my country used that purge too.

 

[Sano]

@Gomi1977 taking your figure of 0.08%, we would be at 2.5M infections for Germany (about 3% of the population or 1 in about 35). This coincides well with many people's gut feeling. Taken together with the assumption from the study mentioned earlier that we need >80% to assume herd immunity and contain this motherfucker, it would imply 50k deaths for Germany.

For the US, it would mean about 5% infected (obviously way way higher for NYC).

At those numbers, we'd end up with 11732 deaths (for comparison, the 2017/ 2018 flu-epidemic caused 9444 deaths, but only had an infection rate of a little under 15%), 10092 ICU-admittances, and 40368 total hospitalisations (for comparison, the 2017/ 2018 flu-season only had 16000 total hospitalisations (ICU-numbers unavailable)).
This would also mean that we're only 3 doublings away from reaching herd immunity. That could be 6-9 weeks away.

Only thing is that there's a slight lag in that mortality rate, as you said Gomi. It's probably going to end up a little higher with week 13, 14 and 15 numbers coming in substantially higher than the previous weeks. We also have to consider that different countries and communities have different rates based on a variety of factors so we can't always compare countries (although Germany and The Netherlands would likely be more comparable than something like Germany and Italy or Spain).

EDIT: You already addressed some of it in the post above Gomi, I was too slow!

New data from Sweden suggests that overall deaths are not higher than the average over the last 5 years. No lockdowns in place yet no more people than any other year since 2015 die right now (at least in March):

Blue line is average deaths per day 2015-2019, red is deaths per day 2020

https://www.expressen.se/kronikorer/anna-basen/sa-manga-dog-i-mars-jamfort-med-tidigare-ar/

Article also said this:

"Även om osäkerheten är stor kan det vara så att den nya smittan redan börjat ge utslag i statistiken.

Vecka 13, i slutet på mars, dog 272 kvinnor och män, jämfört med medeltalet 258 under åren 2015-2019.

137 män dog 2020, att jämföra med medeltalet 123 från samma period mellan 2015-2019. Dödstalen brukar klinga av framåt sommarmånaderna. Men i stället för att klinga av ser det nu ut som att de ökar bland männen. Det finns också studier som visar att covid-19 slår hårare mot män."

So seems like week 13 numbers are already above average. However, deaths usually go down from week 12 on in most European countries as that's when the influenza season starts fading out, but if you've been following Swedens numbers week 14 and 15 will be much higher than 13. There's a lag in numbers on top of that.

Not saying it'll be a catastrophe or anything, Sweden is doing relatively well (although not great) all things considered and may come out of this okay despite not locking down fully. Fully here needs to be underscored because the Swedes have made many changes despite still keeping some things open. But they will almost certainly do worse than Norway and Denmark.

 

[Fawlty]

The shopping in my area is out of control. Home Depot is fucking PACKED for obv reasons, Wal-Mart Target etc.

People do not fucking get it.

About 25-33% seem to be wearing masks, which is better than nothing, but that's of relatively little use compared to the levels of exposure people are subjecting themselves to.

 

[Orgasmo]

False. You need them when you're doing work around the house involving fumes and dust. You also need them when somebody in your household gets sick and you take care of them at home. Stop mask shaming.

Hoarder, DIE!

 

[ShinkanPo]

I don't think it's information as much as necessity.

Reality is that we don't have enough mask for everybody at the moment, and not for the foreseeable future. In this case, you want to mask to go to medical staff, patients and essential services workers who are at the greatest risk of exposure. In this case, we have to ration our supplies. For normal individual, there is zero reason why you need N95.

In my country we ran out of the N95s even before this Pandemic blew up!

Its because a Volcano erupted in January 12 and spewed tons of ash all over the City and people started hoarding shit

 

[Gomi1977]

Only thing is that there's a slight lag in that mortality rate, as you said Gomi. It's probably going to end up a little higher with week 13, 14 and 15 numbers coming in substantially higher than the previous weeks. We also have to consider that different countries and communities have different rates based on a variety of factors.


Article also said this:

"Även om osäkerheten är stor kan det vara så att den nya smittan redan börjat ge utslag i statistiken.

Vecka 13, i slutet på mars, dog 272 kvinnor och män, jämfört med medeltalet 258 under åren 2015-2019.

137 män dog 2020, att jämföra med medeltalet 123 från samma period mellan 2015-2019. Dödstalen brukar klinga av framåt sommarmånaderna. Men i stället för att klinga av ser det nu ut som att de ökar bland männen. Det finns också studier som visar att covid-19 slår hårare mot män."

So seems like week 13 numbers are already above average. However, deaths usually go down from week 12 on in most European countries as that's when the influenza season starts fading out, but if you've been following Swedens numbers week 14 and 15 will be much higher than 13. There's a lag in numbers on top of that.

Not saying it'll be a catastrophe or anything, Sweden is doing relatively well (although not great) all things considered and may come out of this okay despite not locking down fully. Fully here needs to be underscored because the Swedes have made many changes despite still keeping some things open. But they will almost certainly do worse than Norway and Denmark.

I just edited my earlier post with this:

Edit: plus, a lot of deaths are not counted in the official numbers, since they were not tested for the virus, like in nursing homes for instance. Like I said, I'm working on those numbers, hoping to have the totals for up to and including week 13 this Friday or Saturday, and we can work from that. Numbers appear to be FAR higher though, as in double/ triple the reported figures, which is kinda scary. Guesstimate says figures up till March 29th could be as much as three times the official figures, based on weekly averages over multiple years, and guesstimates with regards to the flu, based on official numbers. Official 1068, my Guesstimate for now is 3179.

Regular number for week 13 is around 2900; we're expecting 4300, and that was the last week of the seasonal, mild flu-epidemic from this year. Official number for that week is 806, I'm looking at almost 2100. Damn...

 

[KONG-D'SNT-TAP]

Actually all the hospitals around here set up triage tents outside the entrance. There is actually less than normal people in the hospitals here since all the outpatient and elective stuff is canceled right now

Have you been inside the hospital first hand or spoken to someone who works there?

 

[Queen B]

The shopping in my area is out of control. Home Depot is fucking PACKED for obv reasons, Wal-Mart Target etc.

People do not fucking get it.

About 25-33% seem to be wearing masks, which is better than nothing, but that's of relatively little use compared to the levels of exposure people are subjecting themselves to.

What 3rd world area do you live