COVID-19 Breaking News - Version 15: UK PM Boris Johnson out of ICU

[irish_thug]

I wasn’t being serious.

Good. I thought we'd lost you for a second.

 

[TeamFedor]

Just that the Czechs are not immigrants, even though they have internal immigrants but anyway not so many, and Slovakia and Hungary also don"t emigrate like Poland.

So you compare apples with oranges. Poland deals with millions returning home. Plus most of the deaths are coming after 2000-2200 cases and it"s also important when you had the 1st case.

What I'm trying to say is wearing masks is a very effective measure. Something the large majority of people in this thread already know. Get Poland out of the equation and compare Slovakia to Hungary and Czech Republic. The pattern is the same. They (V4 countries) all have done very good fighting the pandemic, but the extra measures Slovakia took, have given better results.

 

[Sir Punchalot]

Just to uplift everyone's spirits after the news of an R0 of nearly 6: Getting infected may not make you immune either.

Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk

• Scientists in Shanghai say some recovered patients show no signs of the neutralising proteins
• Early-stage findings could have implications for vaccine development and herd immunity, they say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

"In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all."


If nothing else, news like this = good excuse to enjoy some decent whisky. Ardbeg 10 in my case. Sláinte, I guess.

 

[Wadtucket]

More calculations from that weird numberphile from The Netherlands.

So, earlier today I reported that the municipal health organisations in the north of The Netherlands estimate that 6% of the north has already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and that the percentage in the south (very much more badly hit so far) is much higher, and, therefor, it will take quite a bit longer before the north will see herd immunity.
Now, we know how many people live in the three northern most provinces (Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe), and we know how many people have been hospitalised due to COVID-19 in these provinces. So I went with those numbers, and did some calculations, because what else? In the table below, you will see my calculations for the three worst hit provinces, based on that 6% figure, and the number of hospitalisations in those provinces. I make one assumption, and that is that the % of people needing hospitalisation for COVID-19 is the same for the whole country.

As you can see, this would mean that the three worst hit provinces, have already had almost a quarter of their residents infected with this virus. We also see, based on the earlier mentioned assumption, that the actual percentage of COVID-19-patients needing hospitalisation is 0,29%, while the official models assume 4%. Now, if we take that 0,29%, and we know that to date there have been 7735 people needing hospitalisation in The Netherlands, we have to conclude that to date 2,667,241 Dutch people have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2; that would mean 15,33% of total residents of The Netherlands. That would mean a mortality rate* of 0,08%.

* Mortality rate based on official number of deaths; I hope to have some more realistic figures this Friday, when the total number of deceased people for week 13 will be published.

Yeah, it's all starting to come together. And that insanely high R0 also explains all the stress on the health care system. It's not much more deadly than the flu (no, not a just-the-flu-bro, as most should know), but the flu has an R0=1,3 (in The Netherlands at least), and this SOB seems to be closer to 6!!!

Thanks for presenting the numbers nicely. Welcome to the not-a-just-the-flu-bro-but-kinda-in-the-sense-of-fatality-rate-and-symptoms camp!


@Rob Battisti blowing his wad

 

[Gomi1977]

Thanks for presenting the numbers nicely. Welcome to the not-a-just-the-flu-bro-but-kinda-in-the-sense-of-fatality-rate-and-symptoms camp!


@Rob Battisti blowing his wad

Someone got an acronym for that???

 

[Headkicktoleg]

no idea, i just know that they don't treat patients outside the front fuckin entrance

Actually all the hospitals around here set up triage tents outside the entrance. There is actually less than normal people in the hospitals here since all the outpatient and elective stuff is canceled right now

 

[sleepyguard85]

Where?

https://www.runcornandwidnesworld.co.uk/news/18365913.ice-rink-turned-temporary-morgue/

 

[Ayin]

The sad thing is at first you laugh because it seems so ridiculous but then you remember how the WHO originally told us it's not transferable person to person and more recently the multiple health care professionals telling us masks wouldn't protect us at all.

Now all the sudden that stoner from high school doesn't seem any dumber than these "prestigious" doctors.

Yep. Lying is just like incompetence, in that it damages trusts once exposed.

Unfortunately it seems that’s that very government group in these times has learned from Trump, in that the best thing to do when you were wrong on Monday is not to apologize and take ownership, but to say something totally different on Tuesday, and then attack on Wednesday if anyone brings it up.

There is a specific reason for that.

There are likely so many interconnected reasons for that it would be impossible to outline all of them.

 

[Strychnine]

Idiots like this are going to get people killed.

 

[ufcfan4]

Is there any reason why this would have such a massive R0 relative to, say the flu and other infectious diseases? Is that number purely a reflection of the fact that there is a delayed onset of symptoms (plus many asymptomatic cases), meaning many people are spreading it before or without realizing they had or is there another reason?

 

[Headkicktoleg]

Is there any reason why this would have such a massive R0 relative to, say the flu and other infectious diseases? Is that number purely a reflection of the fact that there is a delayed onset of symptoms (plus many asymptomatic cases), meaning many people are spreading it before or without realizing they had or is there another reason?

That and we have zero immunity to it

 

[ufcfan4]

Idiots like this are going to get people killed.

Key example of what people on this forum were warning about-

If the major efforts to flatten the curve have the intended effect and diminish projected numbers, there will be jerks saying that the measures were unnecessary because it was not as big a deal as forecasted. Seemingly failing to acknowledge that without the extreme response, it would have been much much worse.

 

[JDragon]

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The death curves by country are excellent stuff.

 

[NSX-R]

Just to uplift everyone's spirits after the news of an R0 of nearly 6: Getting infected may not make you immune either.

Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk

• Scientists in Shanghai say some recovered patients show no signs of the neutralising proteins
• Early-stage findings could have implications for vaccine development and herd immunity, they say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

"In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all."


If nothing else, news like this = good excuse to enjoy some decent whisky. Ardbeg 10 in my case. Sláinte, I guess.

Article says that it's mostly young people who recovered that have low levels of antibodies. Those aged 15-39 had about a third of the antibody levels as those in the 60-85 age bracket. This has implications on herd immunity, of course. Shielding the above-60 and sickly populations of society in a herd immunity strategy would be of little use if everybody else is at high risk of reinfection.

 

[Gomi1977]

More calculations from that weird numberphile from The Netherlands.

So, earlier today I reported that the municipal health organisations in the north of The Netherlands estimate that 6% of the north has already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and that the percentage in the south (very much more badly hit so far) is much higher, and, therefor, it will take quite a bit longer before the north will see herd immunity.
Now, we know how many people live in the three northern most provinces (Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe), and we know how many people have been hospitalised due to COVID-19 in these provinces. So I went with those numbers, and did some calculations, because what else? In the table below, you will see my calculations for the three worst hit provinces, based on that 6% figure, and the number of hospitalisations in those provinces. I make one assumption, and that is that the % of people needing hospitalisation for COVID-19 is the same for the whole country.

As you can see, this would mean that the three worst hit provinces, have already had almost a quarter of their residents infected with this virus. We also see, based on the earlier mentioned assumption, that the actual percentage of COVID-19-patients needing hospitalisation is 0,29%, while the official models assume 4%. Now, if we take that 0,29%, and we know that to date there have been 7735 people needing hospitalisation in The Netherlands, we have to conclude that to date 2,667,241 Dutch people have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2; that would mean 15,33% of total residents of The Netherlands. That would mean a mortality rate* of 0,08%.

* Mortality rate based on official number of deaths; I hope to have some more realistic figures this Friday, when the total number of deceased people for week 13 will be published.

One thing to add. Based on these numbers, we have to conclude that the virus reached The Netherlands (much?) sooner than so far assumed. If we take the doubling dates I've been working on, and work backwards from the above total, we get this:

Date # Infected*
27-02-2020 1251
28-02-2020 2501
01-03-2020 5002
03-03-2020 10004
06-03-2020 20008
09-03-2020 40016
12-03-2020 80032
15-03-2020 160065
18-03-2020 320129
21-03-2020 640259
26-03-2020 1280517
07-04-2020 2561034

My best guess is the virus reached The Netherlands mid-February at the latest, absent any hard proof (so far) of one or more super spreaders.

 

[Orgasmo]

Is there any reason why this would have such a massive R0 relative to, say the flu and other infectious diseases? Is that number purely a reflection of the fact that there is a delayed onset of symptoms (plus many asymptomatic cases), meaning many people are spreading it before or without realizing they had or is there another reason?

Transmission by aerosol droplets makes this especially infectious. Imagine a carrier sneezing or coughing in an enclosed space (i.e elevator) and left. Invisible droplets can stay in the air for up to 2 hours. You walk in a few minutes later assuming no one is there. Unfortunately you just breathed in thousands of droplets without realizing it. It's game over, no physical contact needed.

Cough and sneeze can spray those droplets for up to 8 feet. Even talking can do the same but to a shorter distance. That's why we need mask and social distancing.

 

[JDragon]

@Gomi1977 taking your figure of 0.08%, we would be at 2.5M infections for Germany (about 3% of the population or 1 in about 35). This coincides well with many people's gut feeling. Taken together with the assumption from the study mentioned earlier that we need >80% to assume herd immunity and contain this motherfucker, it would imply 50k deaths for Germany.

For the US, it would mean about 5% infected (obviously way way higher for NYC).

 

[Wadtucket]

New data from Sweden suggests that overall deaths are not higher than the average over the last 5 years. No lockdowns in place yet no more people than any other year since 2015 die right now (at least in March):

Blue line is average deaths per day 2015-2019, red is deaths per day 2020

https://www.expressen.se/kronikorer/anna-basen/sa-manga-dog-i-mars-jamfort-med-tidigare-ar/

 

[Orgasmo]

Article says that it's mostly young people who recovered that have low levels of antibodies. Those aged 15-39 had about a third of the antibody levels as those in the 60-85 age bracket. This has implications on herd immunity, of course. Shielding the above-60 and sickly populations of society in a herd immunity strategy would be of little use if everybody else is at high risk of reinfection.

Herd immunity is a crock of shit. COVID-19 is caused by a RNA virus, which means it's rapidly mutating like common cold and flu. When you recover, your immunity is likely only short term as new strains mutate and develop. That's why you can get cold or flu multiple times a year. We're already seeing at least 8 sub-strains of the virus in Europe and Asia. When it inevitably returns next year, we likely won't have any immunity.

Our only options are seasonal vaccine or an effective treatment.

 

[Gomi1977]

@Gomi1977 taking your figure of 0.08%, we would be at 2.5M infections for Germany (about 3% of the population or 1 in about 35). This coincides well with many people's gut feeling. Taken together with the assumption from the study mentioned earlier that we need >80% to assume herd immunity and contain this motherfucker, it would imply 50k deaths for Germany.

For the US, it would mean about 5% infected (obviously way way higher for NYC).

At those numbers, we'd end up with 11732 deaths (for comparison, the 2017/ 2018 flu-epidemic caused 9444 deaths, but only had an infection rate of a little under 15%), 10092 ICU-admittances, and 40368 total hospitalisations (for comparison, the 2017/ 2018 flu-season only had 16000 total hospitalisations (ICU-numbers unavailable)).
This would also mean that we're only 3 doublings away from reaching herd immunity. That could be 6-9 weeks away.