Brave CF 65, MMA, Friday, October 28, Bahrain

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/93032-brave-cf-65-rumble-in-the-kingdom
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/69205


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lol ^

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Shamil Gaziev probably shouldn't be a -800 favorite. Shamil has bad cardio (even by HW standards), very minimal striking, and was unable to finish his last opponent after he made it out of the first minute (Shamil has only gone past the first minute in 2/8 fights).

His opponent Pavel Dailidko likely won't be able to get back to his feet if he is taken down but he is light on his feet for a HW, has good knees, and heavy hands. I could see Pavel catching Shamil with a knee off a lazy takedown or knocking him out on the feet at the beginning of the second round if he makes it that far.

I don't have enough confidence in his opponent to advocate an underdog bet on him but I would stay away from Shamil at his current price.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Shamil Gaziev probably shouldn't be a -800 favorite. Shamil has bad cardio (even by HW standards), very minimal striking, and was unable to finish his last opponent after he made it out of the first minute (Shamil has only gone past the first minute in 2/8 fights).

His opponent Pavel Dailidko likely won't be able to get back to his feet if he is taken down but he is light on his feet for a HW, has good knees, and heavy hands. I could see Pavel catching Shamil with a knee off a lazy takedown or knocking him out on the feet at the beginning of the second round if he makes it that far.

I don't have enough confidence in his opponent to advocate an underdog bet on him but I would stay away from Shamil at his current price.
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Are we talking about Kirill Kornilov when you're talking about his last opponent? Kornilov is one of the very best HW's outside the UFC.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Are we talking about Kirill Kornilov when you're talking about his last opponent? Kornilov is one of the very best HW's outside the UFC.
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Kornilov is one of the best HW's outside of the UFC but Dailidko doesn't need to be to deplete the gastank of Gaziev; he simply has to survive the first round. That's easier said than done but Shamil was very inactive from top control during the first round of his last fight. And it wasn't because Kornilov, the Russian kickboxer, was threatening subs off his back.

I'm not advocating anyone to bet on Pavel Dailidko, I certainly won't be, but rather do not trust Shamil as a -800 favorite to act as an easy parlay piece. His chances of winning go down significantly if he cannot finish his opponent in the first round.

Shamil looks like a -800 favorite on paper but anyone who has seen him fight knows his MMA game is built for sixty second fights not 15 minute ones.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Kornilov is one of the best HW's outside of the UFC but Dailidko doesn't need to be to deplete the gastank of Gaziev; he simply has to survive the first round. That's easier said than done but Shamil was very inactive from top control during the first round of his last fight. And it wasn't because Kornilov, the Russian kickboxer, was threatening subs off his back.

I'm not advocating anyone to bet on Pavel Dailidko, I certainly won't be, but rather do not trust Shamil as a -800 favorite to act as an easy parlay piece. His chances of winning go down significantly if he cannot finish his opponent in the first round.

Shamil looks like a -800 favorite on paper but anyone who has seen him fight knows his MMA game is built for sixty second fights not 15 minute ones.
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Still don't agree really. Kornilov was making it awkward and being defensively good and working up well as well as being difficult to take down in the first place. I think he gassed more than is ideal, but I think most fighters would have got tired trying to hold Kirill down.

Just Wikicapping this Dalidko guy got finished quickly by Louie Sutherland who didn't look good at all in PFL and his best win is Charlie Milner who's absolutely abysmal. He doesn't strike me as someone to worry about surviving the first round.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
@Stat_Collector what do you think to Carl Booth's price?
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i maxed bet 2 1/2 unit.
When i saw his tapology page i was expecting him to look like a skinny tall guy and have sort of mma generalist style.

But he is pretty damn big and has big shoulders and thick thighs, big back muscle.

His boxing looks solid. Keeps his hands up and has a nicer boxing guard. He looks like he has heavy hands. He survived a fight with Jarrah Hussein who was able to finish Carlton Harris, that adds value. Stylistically to Labban doesn't have good grappling to make it a difficult fight, he's a striker who is lacking in fundamentals, is less battle tested. Yeah i think you found a good catch here, Carl is cleaner and more sound, would not surprise me if he knocks out Labban out cold in rnd 1. Labban's only best wins are against the same fighter twice. Kovac who is very chinny(3 ko losses) and he could not put him away with strikes in the first fight(sub in the second.) That speaks to his weak finishing skills. I think Carl hits all the marks, he can be grounded but still survive a solid grappler like Steropoli.And he still got up from one of his takedowns and rose to his feet, *Labban only has really a decision chance of winning, which makes him a bad favorite, and he's just so defensively bad i think he losses on sig.strikes. I can see Carl beat him Dec or ko.

Once again nice catch.
 
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Stat_Collector said:
i maxed bet 2 1/2 unit.
When i saw his tapology page i was expecting him to look like a skinny tall guy and have sort of mma generalist style.

But he is pretty damn big and has big shoulders and thick thighs, big back muscle.

His boxing looks solid. Keeps his hands up and has a nicer boxing guard. He looks like he has heavy hands. He survived a fight with Jarrah Hussein who was able to finish Carlton Harris, that adds value. Stylistically to Labban doesn't have good grappling to make it a difficult fight, he's a striker who is lacking in fundamentals, is less battle tested. Yeah i think you found a good catch here, Carl is cleaner and more sound, would not surprise me if he knocks out Labban out cold in rnd 1. Labban's only best wins are against the same fighter twice. Kovac who is very chinny(3 ko losses) and he could not put him away with strikes in the first fight(sub in the second.) That speaks to his weak finishing skills. I think Carl hits all the marks, he can be grounded but still survive a solid grappler like Steropoli.And he still got up from one of his takedowns and rose to his feet, *Labban only has really a decision chance of winning, which makes him a bad favorite, and he's just so defensively bad i think he losses on sig.strikes. I can see Carl beat him Dec or ko.

Once again nice catch.
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No worries dude, I think I'm good at spotting opportunities but I have ADHD so I miss details when betting these things. It's good to have you to run these things by as you're great with the details.

Teamwork makes the dream work and all that.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Still don't agree really. Kornilov was making it awkward and being defensively good and working up well as well as being difficult to take down in the first place. I think he gassed more than is ideal, but I think most fighters would have got tired trying to hold Kirill down.

Just Wikicapping this Dalidko guy got finished quickly by Louie Sutherland who didn't look good at all in PFL and his best win is Charlie Milner who's absolutely abysmal. He doesn't strike me as someone to worry about surviving the first round.
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Gaziev has been bet down to -550 if you are interested.

I still wouldn't touch a betting line above -500 for him but this is probably as low as it is going to go.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Gaziev has been bet down to -550 if you are interested.

I still wouldn't touch a betting line above -500 for him but this is probably as low as it is going to go.
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I might stick him in a parlay with Shorty Torres and maybe someone from the Fury card. I don't really play favourites at that price on their own.
 
Parlayed Shamil Gaziev, Shorty Torres and Carlos Lozoya from the Fury card for 2.02 odds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
i maxed bet 2 1/2 unit.
When i saw his tapology page i was expecting him to look like a skinny tall guy and have sort of mma generalist style.

But he is pretty damn big and has big shoulders and thick thighs, big back muscle.

His boxing looks solid. Keeps his hands up and has a nicer boxing guard. He looks like he has heavy hands. He survived a fight with Jarrah Hussein who was able to finish Carlton Harris, that adds value. Stylistically to Labban doesn't have good grappling to make it a difficult fight, he's a striker who is lacking in fundamentals, is less battle tested. Yeah i think you found a good catch here, Carl is cleaner and more sound, would not surprise me if he knocks out Labban out cold in rnd 1. Labban's only best wins are against the same fighter twice. Kovac who is very chinny(3 ko losses) and he could not put him away with strikes in the first fight(sub in the second.) That speaks to his weak finishing skills. I think Carl hits all the marks, he can be grounded but still survive a solid grappler like Steropoli.And he still got up from one of his takedowns and rose to his feet, *Labban only has really a decision chance of winning, which makes him a bad favorite, and he's just so defensively bad i think he losses on sig.strikes. I can see Carl beat him Dec or ko.

Once again nice catch.
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Ok,it's 9:30 pm here and I'm finally alone so I'll tail you a bit and tune in on this one
 
Wow,glad I just sprinkled a little,Booth was total shit,got his legs beat up badly and got dominated on the feet
 
I gotta stay away from guys that have inconsistent win rate. Id like to watch that fighter and see where i went wrong. I guess the funky style worked. The loss to carlton minus should have been a red flag..
 
Stat_Collector said:
I gotta stay away from guys that have inconsistent win rate. Id like to watch that fighter and see where i went wrong. I guess the funky style worked. The loss to carlton minus should have been a red flag..
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After the first exchange they ended up on the ground with Booth being on top,he just layed in guard so the judge stood am up and Labban was just quicker dancing around him and low kicking him.Booth didn't check any and visibly started limping in the second,Labban could off finished him if he was more agressive.Booth didn't do anything execpt two good punches when he timed the low kicks
 
Bakayoko said:
After the first exchange they ended up on the ground with Booth being on top,he just layed in guard so the judge stood am up and Labban was just quicker dancing around him and low kicking him.Booth didn't check any and visibly started limping in the second,Labban could off finished him if he was more agressive.Booth didn't do anything execpt two good punches when he timed the low kicks
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thanks, sucks we lost money, but i have to remind myself sometimes to avoid these types. Id say fighters that lose often and inexperience fighters and old fighters are number 1 worst losses in my resume, his win rate was only 66%.
 
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