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Let's analyze that fight together.
Striking
Power clearly goes to Shavkat, he rocked Neal cleanly a few times and looks like he hits like a truck for a MW. He also has a beautiful spinning back kick finish, and his kick resonate in the arena so they should be pretty powerful. Also always come forward like a terminator, iron chin tested by Neal who couldn't crack it. Only little flaw would be the lack of hezd movement that allowed neal to rock him a couple times.
Belal is not a great striker by any mean but he's surprisingly crafty standing up and even finished his last fight by TKO. He uses a different gameplan each fight, and has above average footwork. He used lateral movement against Luque which help him nullify Luque's offense, and a pressure style against Brady which forced him into a dog fight. He throws a middle kick here and there but nothing special.
edge: Shavkat
Wrestling
Shavkat is a good offensive wrestler but he's not Chimaev by any means, Geoff Neal stopped all of his 4 takedown attemps. Defensively he was a little susceptible to takedowns in his early career (good fights and finishes watch it) but he should have improved. Thing is he's not a wrestler like Khabib, Makhachev, Chimaev, but comes from a pure Sambo background. So he lacks the diversity that the above mentioned fighters have takedown-wise.
Belal on the other hand has proven is wrestling is very solid against top competition both offensively and defensively. He took down wonderboy almost at will and against Luque used mostly a double leg with an outside trip that gave him the little push he needed to finish the takedown, so he can adjust based on the opponent. He also denied all of Brady takedown attempts with ease, and Brady is a good grappler. Him having worked with Khabib's camp helped him up his wrestling game too.
Edge: Belal
Ground game/Jiu-Jitsu/Submissions
Shavkat has many submission finishes, and has kind of an instinct for that. Mainly he will go for chokes. Against Prazeres and Neil Magny he established dominant position and then went for the choke with an iron grip. Against Geoff Neal and Oliveira he hurt them with strike and beautifully transitioned to submission. Kf an occasion is here he will take it. And he submitted Neal standing which was incredible. His positional grappling is good too.
Belal has good positional grappling as he demonstrated in the Wonderboy fight. He can control opponents on the ground but it's not flawless, as he has a tendency to lose position if he goes for submission or G&P as showed in the Luque fight, Luque was able to get back up everytime Belal opened up a little. We can hope that working with Khabib help him progress on that side but we haven't got the occasion to see it yet. His submission game is sub-par for elite level, he doesn't seem to have an instinct for it.
Edge : Shavkat
Athleticism
Shavkat is a freak of nature. He's monstrously big for the division (pictures of him next to Dana or Khabib are humbling) and doesn't seem to have a cardio problem because of it. He slowed down in the 3rd round of the Neal fight but it was a high paced fight and he got tagged a bit so it doesn't make his cardio suspect to me, quite the contrary. He's athletic and strong. Only unknown is his cardio in a 5 rounds fight. That is a question that we can't answer yet.
Belal is smaller, but very muscular. He packs some mass which is normal at his height for a WW. He doesn't seem to be any less strong than the other WW, he outmuscled wonderboy and does well in the clinch in general. He doesn't have KO power - despite the Brady T'KO - and iqn't "very" athletic compared to guys like Usman, Leon or Chimaev. That being said his cardio is very good and he proved he can go 5 full rounds without significantly slowing.
Edge : Shavkat
Fight IQ
Shavkat fight IQ is ok, but he doesn't strike me as the type of guy to follow a game plan to the letter. He seems more to go with the flow, always trying to impose his type of fight, and hunting for a finish. It can cost him a little as we saw in the Geoff Neal fight were he got tagged bad a couple times. It was a war and from now on he will only fight harder opponents that are very calculated, so he should probably try to find a balance between his agression and a good game plan. Chimaev had the same problem in the Burns fight. Higher level opponents can exploit this over-agression.
Belal on the other hand is probably the fighter with the highest fight IQ in all of the top 10. Of anything this is his best attribute. He's nothing special on the other fiels, but man can he stick to a gameplan and be disciplined trough five full rounds. He also always change his style depending on the opponent. Against the striker Wonderboy he went full NCAA wrestler. Against the striker with submission threat Luque he used a lot of lateral movement to nullify his striking with takedowns mixed into it to always keep him guessing. Against Brady he morphed into a striker with impeccable TDD, with a crocop-esque gameplan of "stand and bang" and it worked. I think that of he does his homeor like always he will also come with a good gameplan that will surprise Shavkat.
Edge: Belal
Conclusion
Edge is 3/2 in favor of Shavkat. I think that Shavkat has more chances to win based on his raw attributes and that if he wins it will be a finish after exhausting Belal, but thay Belal has the tools to come with a good game plan that will frustrate Shavkat and that if he wins it will be a close decision in a very constested fight.
Thanks for reading, waiting for your opinions.
Edit: added cardio info for Belal
Striking
Power clearly goes to Shavkat, he rocked Neal cleanly a few times and looks like he hits like a truck for a MW. He also has a beautiful spinning back kick finish, and his kick resonate in the arena so they should be pretty powerful. Also always come forward like a terminator, iron chin tested by Neal who couldn't crack it. Only little flaw would be the lack of hezd movement that allowed neal to rock him a couple times.
Belal is not a great striker by any mean but he's surprisingly crafty standing up and even finished his last fight by TKO. He uses a different gameplan each fight, and has above average footwork. He used lateral movement against Luque which help him nullify Luque's offense, and a pressure style against Brady which forced him into a dog fight. He throws a middle kick here and there but nothing special.
edge: Shavkat
Wrestling
Shavkat is a good offensive wrestler but he's not Chimaev by any means, Geoff Neal stopped all of his 4 takedown attemps. Defensively he was a little susceptible to takedowns in his early career (good fights and finishes watch it) but he should have improved. Thing is he's not a wrestler like Khabib, Makhachev, Chimaev, but comes from a pure Sambo background. So he lacks the diversity that the above mentioned fighters have takedown-wise.
Belal on the other hand has proven is wrestling is very solid against top competition both offensively and defensively. He took down wonderboy almost at will and against Luque used mostly a double leg with an outside trip that gave him the little push he needed to finish the takedown, so he can adjust based on the opponent. He also denied all of Brady takedown attempts with ease, and Brady is a good grappler. Him having worked with Khabib's camp helped him up his wrestling game too.
Edge: Belal
Ground game/Jiu-Jitsu/Submissions
Shavkat has many submission finishes, and has kind of an instinct for that. Mainly he will go for chokes. Against Prazeres and Neil Magny he established dominant position and then went for the choke with an iron grip. Against Geoff Neal and Oliveira he hurt them with strike and beautifully transitioned to submission. Kf an occasion is here he will take it. And he submitted Neal standing which was incredible. His positional grappling is good too.
Belal has good positional grappling as he demonstrated in the Wonderboy fight. He can control opponents on the ground but it's not flawless, as he has a tendency to lose position if he goes for submission or G&P as showed in the Luque fight, Luque was able to get back up everytime Belal opened up a little. We can hope that working with Khabib help him progress on that side but we haven't got the occasion to see it yet. His submission game is sub-par for elite level, he doesn't seem to have an instinct for it.
Edge : Shavkat
Athleticism
Shavkat is a freak of nature. He's monstrously big for the division (pictures of him next to Dana or Khabib are humbling) and doesn't seem to have a cardio problem because of it. He slowed down in the 3rd round of the Neal fight but it was a high paced fight and he got tagged a bit so it doesn't make his cardio suspect to me, quite the contrary. He's athletic and strong. Only unknown is his cardio in a 5 rounds fight. That is a question that we can't answer yet.
Belal is smaller, but very muscular. He packs some mass which is normal at his height for a WW. He doesn't seem to be any less strong than the other WW, he outmuscled wonderboy and does well in the clinch in general. He doesn't have KO power - despite the Brady T'KO - and iqn't "very" athletic compared to guys like Usman, Leon or Chimaev. That being said his cardio is very good and he proved he can go 5 full rounds without significantly slowing.
Edge : Shavkat
Fight IQ
Shavkat fight IQ is ok, but he doesn't strike me as the type of guy to follow a game plan to the letter. He seems more to go with the flow, always trying to impose his type of fight, and hunting for a finish. It can cost him a little as we saw in the Geoff Neal fight were he got tagged bad a couple times. It was a war and from now on he will only fight harder opponents that are very calculated, so he should probably try to find a balance between his agression and a good game plan. Chimaev had the same problem in the Burns fight. Higher level opponents can exploit this over-agression.
Belal on the other hand is probably the fighter with the highest fight IQ in all of the top 10. Of anything this is his best attribute. He's nothing special on the other fiels, but man can he stick to a gameplan and be disciplined trough five full rounds. He also always change his style depending on the opponent. Against the striker Wonderboy he went full NCAA wrestler. Against the striker with submission threat Luque he used a lot of lateral movement to nullify his striking with takedowns mixed into it to always keep him guessing. Against Brady he morphed into a striker with impeccable TDD, with a crocop-esque gameplan of "stand and bang" and it worked. I think that of he does his homeor like always he will also come with a good gameplan that will surprise Shavkat.
Edge: Belal
Conclusion
Edge is 3/2 in favor of Shavkat. I think that Shavkat has more chances to win based on his raw attributes and that if he wins it will be a finish after exhausting Belal, but thay Belal has the tools to come with a good game plan that will frustrate Shavkat and that if he wins it will be a close decision in a very constested fight.
Thanks for reading, waiting for your opinions.
Edit: added cardio info for Belal
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