The Path to Victory for Robert Whittaker against Israel Adesanya

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It's time to do some coaching from the couch!

If Whittaker is to win against Adesanya, what do you think he needs to do?
I'll give my opinion.

Whittaker came into the the first fight seemingly trying to take Israel's head off.
He was throwing lots of looping shots, hay-makers, and head-kicks.
I presume this was because of nerves and maybe a tactice to deal with the reach & height disadvantage.

I would like to see Rob be much more patient and utilize his jab much more to disrupt Israel's rhythm.
I also think he should almost entirely abandon head kicks. Israel is so much taller than Rob that unless they are basically trading in the pocket against the cage where Adesanya can't escape it will be way too difficult to land a headkick.
I do realize Kelvin landed one good head-kick that rocked Israel, but I attribute that one landing mostly to fatigue and prior damage.

I would also like to see Rob blitz into combinations of mostly straight shots and ending the combo with leg kicks. This tactic was used very successfully by Shogun against Machida. Seems like a good idea against someone who is so elusive and fleet of foot. Just use the hands to set up the kicks.

Attacking the body often would be wise as well. Adesanya is a difficult target to head hunt. Work the body and legs to mitigate the movement and conditioning, as well as scoring points. He could use teap kicks down the middle, a couple well placed round kicks, and some level change punches to the body.

Along with that, Rob needs to clinch more, press Israel against the cage at times to wear the clock down similar to TJ vs Sandhagen, dirty box against the cage, and look for well-timed duck unders and double legs set-up off of the jab ala Blachowiz, GSP, or Charles Oliveira.

Israel seems much more manageable on the ground when he is in open space, as well as much easier to get to the ground vs against the fence. Israel has great takedown defense with his back against the cage, but seemingly mediocre takedown defense in the open.

Im not really sure Rob has what it takes to finish Israel unless he can really fatigue him first or soften him up with GnP and Dirty Boxing. He should likely bank on winning a decision.

That's my completely amateur-ish take on the fight!

As you can probably surmise, I am heavily pulling for Bobby Knuckles.


TL;DR
  • Be more patient
  • Abandon most looping shots and headkicks
  • Use the jab
  • Work the body
  • Blitz with the hands and finish with Low Kicks
  • Press againt the fence to run the clock down
  • Well-timed takedowns in the center of the octagon

What do you guys think?

GettyImages-1096018154.jpg
 
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Leaves himself open too much and is way too hittable against a counter strikers, doubt he does half of what you think he should tbh
 
Rob has a lot of defensive holes. Offensively, he has the diversity of skill to win the fight in theory but it's not easy to apply it to someone who's as good as Izzy is.

At 185 he's got great takedown defense. He's exceptional off of his back foot and as a counter striker, as evidenced in their first fight. If Rob is truly that patient, the fight may be a snoozer because Adesanya won't recklessly commit. The last time he moved forward consistently Jan took advantage of it and used his size, strength and timing to get him down and ride out top control.

Rob will probably have to fight the most diverse and conservative fight of his career to beat Izzy and it may not be enough as Izzy can stuff takedowns and exploit Rob's defensive issues. Then again, this is all speculation and I could be dead wrong. I hope I'm wrong and he wins decisively as I'm a big fan of his, but it's going to be quite cumbersome.

Good OP, by the way, TS.
 
It's time to do some coaching from the couch!

If Whittaker is to win against Adesanya, what do you think he needs to do?
I'll give my opinion.

Whittaker came into the the first fight with Adesanya seemingly trying to take Israel's head off.
He was throwing lots of looping shots, hay-makers, and head-kicks.
I presume this was because of nerves and maybe a tactice to deal with the reach & height disadvantage.

I would like to see Rob be much more patient and utilize his jab much more to disrupt Israel's rhythm.
I also think he should almost entirely abandon head kicks. Israel is so much taller than Rob that unless they are basically trading in the pocket against the cage where Adesanya can't escape it will be way too difficult to land a headkick.
I do realize Kelvin landed one good head-kick that rocked Israel, but I attribute that one landing mostly to fatigue and prior damage.

I would also like to see Rob blitz into combinations of mostly straight shots and ending the combo with leg kicks. This tactic was used very successfully by Shogun against Machida. Seems like a good idea against someone who is so elusive and fleet of foot. Just use the hands to set up the kicks.

Attacking the body often would be wise as well. Adesanya is a difficult target to head hunt. Work the body and legs to mitigate the movement and conditioning, as well as scoring points. He could use teap kicks down the middle, a couple well placed round kicks, and some level change punches to the body.

Along with that, Rob needs to clinch more, press Israel against the cage at times to wear the clock down similar to TJ vs Sandhagen, dirty box against the cage, and look for well-timed duck unders and double legs set-up off of the jab ala Blachowiz, GSP, or Charles Oliveira.

Israel seems much more manageable on the ground when he is in open space, as well as much easier to get to the ground vs against the fence. Israel has great takedown defense with his back against the cage, but seemingly mediocre takedown defense in the open.

Im not really sure Rob has what it takes to finish Israel unless he can really fatigue him first or soften him up with GnP and Dirty Boxing. He should likely bank on winning a decision.

That's my completely amateur-ish take on the fight!

As you can probably surmise, I am heavily pulling for Bobby Knuckles.


TL;DR
  • Be more patient
  • Abandon most looping shots and headkicks
  • Use the jab
  • Work the body
  • Blitz with the hands and finish with Low Kicks
  • Press againt the fence to run the clock down
  • Well-timed takedowns in the center of the octagon

What do you guys think?

View attachment 906212
*riddum
 
Rob has a lot of defensive holes. Offensively, he has the diversity of skill to win the fight in theory but it's not easy to apply it to someone who's as good as Izzy is.

At 185 he's got great takedown defense. He's exceptional off of his back foot and as a counter striker, as evidenced in their first fight. If Rob is truly that patient, the fight may be a snoozer because Adesanya won't recklessly commit. The last time he moved forward consistently Jan took advantage of it and used his size, strength and timing to get him down and ride out top control.

Rob will probably have to fight the most diverse and conservative fight of his career to beat Izzy and it may not be enough as Izzy can stuff takedowns and exploit Rob's defensive issues. Then again, this is all speculation and I could be dead wrong. I hope I'm wrong and he wins decisively as I'm a big fan of his, but it's going to be quite cumbersome.

Good OP, by the way, TS.
Thank you!

I wrote one on here a long time ago before his first fight with Yoel and it ended up being spot on (my only bragging right here lol).
Hoping this one is spot on as well!
 
To beat Izzy you have to use your wrestling. It's as simple as that. Look what Jan did to him. Put Izzy on his back and he's a fish out of the water.
 
he needs to get takedowns. how he does that without gassing himself out or eating a big shot is the question. the only path is creating some mixups and scrambles.
 
As others have said already, Rob fights the way he fights, and one of the things he always does is keep his hands real low. It works well for him, except when he's fighting a guy like Israel. He'll get caught eventually. It's a shame really since Whittaker is an absolute beast, but I just don't see him having much success in the rematch. Adesanya probably finishes him again.
 
Kelvin and Jan sort of laid out ways that kept the fight longer with Izzy. I think if he includes something he can do that models them two we have a closer fight and maybe a win.

I think any blitz or long combo type striking will not pan out well for him. But, imo of course, I think if he can keep his head kicks very low like you said, and keep his striking more technical with power shots of 1 to 2 strikes that maybe Izzy will play into situations where Rob can throw good mid kicks as well. My guess is a win by decision at best if he wins but who knows.
 
Great stuff here!
The best thing is to look at Izzy's weaknesses for me. Rob needs to use his striking, mainly straight hitting for the first round IMO. Body and head.

It might be dangerous, but he has to attempt some takedowns like single legs or go for a body lock. Even if he doesn't get Izzy down, the takedown threat is what will open up bigger attacks like his great left hook. This was shown in the Jan fight and glimpses of it in the Vettori fight.
While Till isn't on the same level of Izzy, Rob did this very well against him(Till) in their fight with the takedown threat.

Izzy has got fantastic TDD, especially against the fence. The one thing I do see in this fight is if it hits the ground and Rob manages to get the takedown, it'll be very difficult for Izzy to get up. Rob has fantastic BJJ and will choose control over forcing a submission unlike other opponents Izzy has faced before.

One thing I'll be concern about for Rob is his lead leg, Izzy didn't get the chance to chop it down the first fight since Rob was constantly blitzing in. Rob stands pretty heavy on that lead leg and Izzy is notorious for going after it continuously if his opponents stands at range. Rob needs a deterrent(right straight) for when Izzy throws it and even than, that's big risk.

I think Rob will play it smart to get a decision, but he cannot just head-hunt and blitz in with no setup(Example for this is from the Till fight in the 1st round when he got elbowed).
Rob also said he won't rush for a finish, this is something he did in the first bout by putting everything behind every punch he threw. Hopefully he follows this through.

Dan Hardy goes super in depth about this fight, great vid overall about both Rob and Izzy's weapons:
 
Unpopular opinion:

Whittaker's best chance to win is to fight BORING AS FUCK.

Take the Yoel Romero approach. Do NOT let Izzy counter, force Izzy to lead, look for the takedown, point fight, wall n stall if possible.

Win 3 rounds.


Rob can't beat Izzy in a kickboxing match, I doubt he can take him down and keep him there and Izzy is levels above Rob in the striking game, particularly feints and distance management.

Kick legs and reset, repeat. If Izzy throws kicks try to catch them for a TD. If it gets to the ground STAY on top even if that means LnP. If the finish or GnP is there, go for it but do not sacrifice position no matter what.
 
Unpopular opinion:

Whittaker's best chance to win is to fight BORING AS FUCK.

Take the Yoel Romero approach. Do NOT let Izzy counter, force Izzy to lead, look for the takedown, point fight, wall n stall of possible.

Win 3 rounds.


Rob can't beat Izzy in a kickboxing match, I doubt he can take him down and keep him there and Izzy is levels above Rob in the striking game, particularly feints and distance management.

That's pretty much what I said, lol.
 
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