Ponz with his poking history salted me on the guy, but I don't think you're giving him enough credit. Pre-lay off Ponz was a more experienced, more versatile, more skilled fighter than Geoff is now. The Leech loss was surprising, but, again, long lay off - not sure how big of a role that played. And if you wanna throw in MMA math in there - Neal's coming off a loss to Magny who Ponz beat.
So I'm leaning Ponz on this one. However, this should be a good fight cause Neal needs a win, I expect him to be more driven.