Murphy seems like a really good and decent person, but I think she is probably the least-deserving fighter to ever compete for a UFC title. Even when she has won, she has looked like an amateur.
I know upsets can happen, but at least when Serra beat GSP, he had some pretty high-level skills. I think even if Valentina is totally off her game, and has her worst performance ever, Lauren still doesn’t have the skills to take advantage.
If Valentina is motivated, easy finish in the first couple of rounds. If she has a bad night, she wins a 50-45 decision, maybe 49-46.