This will never happen again boys. We are witnessing history, I hope the streak continues.
The probability of each split decision is not independent since you will sometimes have judges who just don't judge the same way. Or you could have a judge spelling of tobacco and alcohol, etc.
I was giving a shorthand example. If you want to get technical, it would depend on each of the fight's probability to go to a decision and then extrapolate the odds of it being a split decision either way; so some fights might have a much higher likelihood than others.
The judges are not the same for each fight either, so it would be pure speculation to guess who it is and what kind of bias they have.
This will never happen again boys. We are witnessing history, I hope the streak continues.
It would be interesting to see the odds of a split decision occurring after one just occurred.
If 1 in 20 decisions goes to a split decision, perhaps the probability of a SD immediately after a SD is higher than 1/20. That's pretty much my point.
But yeah, I'm not sure how much the judges change fight to fight.