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Looking at the rankings at lightweight Nate has the following options.
Justin Gaethje- This fight seems very likely to happen though the UFC and is great because the UFC wins regardless of the outcome. If Nate wins, Gaethje is a big enough win to merit a title shot, and a crack against either Dustin or Conor, both opponents he has beef and history with. If Justin wins he gets to either have a rematch with Poirier which can will attract people because the first fight was so good, or Conor Gaethje which fans really wanted all of 2020 and is still a hyped matchup. This is one of the best options.
Charles Oliveira- This fight is the second most likely to happen though the reasoning behind the matchup might be somewhat strange. The UFC in this case would probably be betting against Do Bronx and for Nate to win. A win for Nate gets him the same amount of credit as a win over Justin, and has the added advantage of removing Oliveira from the title conversation, leaving the UFC with marketable english speaking talent contending for the title. If Oliveira wins however there is little upside. The weaknesses in Oliveira's marketability stem from his inability to speak english, not a lack of competition of viewers. A win over Nate will not change that.
Tony Ferguson- This fight is unlikely to happen for a number of reasons. Their is almost no upside to this fight. While the fan in me needs to see this, a win over Ferguson, especially after his dominant loss to Do Bronx should not be enough to get someone into the title picture. Nate may win but he would join the line behind Justin and Do Bronx. If Ferguson wins, a single win over a semi retired Diaz would not do him too much good especially if his goal is the title. If they simply want to reward Tony for years of service, this is the way to go though I do not think the UFC will suddenly start to see Ferguson for the star he is.
These are the three choices. I believe the UFC will go with Justin because it is the only matchup where they win regardless of outcome
Justin Gaethje- This fight seems very likely to happen though the UFC and is great because the UFC wins regardless of the outcome. If Nate wins, Gaethje is a big enough win to merit a title shot, and a crack against either Dustin or Conor, both opponents he has beef and history with. If Justin wins he gets to either have a rematch with Poirier which can will attract people because the first fight was so good, or Conor Gaethje which fans really wanted all of 2020 and is still a hyped matchup. This is one of the best options.
Charles Oliveira- This fight is the second most likely to happen though the reasoning behind the matchup might be somewhat strange. The UFC in this case would probably be betting against Do Bronx and for Nate to win. A win for Nate gets him the same amount of credit as a win over Justin, and has the added advantage of removing Oliveira from the title conversation, leaving the UFC with marketable english speaking talent contending for the title. If Oliveira wins however there is little upside. The weaknesses in Oliveira's marketability stem from his inability to speak english, not a lack of competition of viewers. A win over Nate will not change that.
Tony Ferguson- This fight is unlikely to happen for a number of reasons. Their is almost no upside to this fight. While the fan in me needs to see this, a win over Ferguson, especially after his dominant loss to Do Bronx should not be enough to get someone into the title picture. Nate may win but he would join the line behind Justin and Do Bronx. If Ferguson wins, a single win over a semi retired Diaz would not do him too much good especially if his goal is the title. If they simply want to reward Tony for years of service, this is the way to go though I do not think the UFC will suddenly start to see Ferguson for the star he is.
These are the three choices. I believe the UFC will go with Justin because it is the only matchup where they win regardless of outcome
