Convince me not to bet on Moreno

DS66

DS66

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When it comes to betting on MMA, I'm a sucker for underdogs. Moreno's a pretty sizeable underdog in this one: $100 wager pays $360. I feel like that's a pretty good bet on a well rounded guy like Moreno who has never been finished and has a phenomenal gas tank and chin, vs an explosive guy like Fig who cuts a lot of weight and has only been pulled into deep waters a couple times (one of which he lost). Fig's path to victory is finishing a guy who has never been finished, while Moreno's path to victory is grinding through 5 rounds, in which case he'll most likely win the decision after losing the first round or 2. Seems like a worthwhile bet....

However Fig will probably just starch him, right? Am I guilty of talking myself up on the underdog's chances, when in reality Fig is the big favorite for a reason (far more explosive and powerful fighter who can finish the fight several ways). Am I dumb for taking the underdog in this one? Should I just hold off and enjoy the fight without some cash riding on it? What are your thoughts almighty Sherbros.
 
DS66 said:
When it comes to betting on MMA, I'm a sucker for underdogs. Moreno's a pretty sizeable underdog in this one: $100 wager pays $360. I feel like that's a pretty good bet on a well rounded guy like Moreno who has never been finished and has a phenomenal gas tank and chin, vs an explosive guy like Fig who cuts a lot of weight and has only been pulled into deep waters a couple times (one of which he lost). Fig's path to victory is finishing a guy who has never been finished, while Moreno's path to victory is grinding through 5 rounds, in which case he'll most likely win the decision after losing the first round or 2. Seems like a worthwhile bet....

However Fig will probably just starch him, right? Am I guilty of talking myself up on the underdog's chances, when in reality Fig is the big favorite for a reason (far more explosive and powerful fighter who can finish the fight several ways). Am I dumb for taking the underdog in this one? Should I just hold off and enjoy the fight without some cash riding on it? What are your thoughts almighty Sherbros.
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Can't disagree with your reasoning. There is definitely value on Moreno. He has multiple paths to victory here.
 
I think Moreno’s chances of winning are better than the odds give him but if you ask me who I think will win, it’s still Figgy Smalls.
 
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Have you seen Figgy lately?! That's a hard bet.

With that said, I'm actually surprised at the betting accuracy of some of you here. I hang out on the PBP during the fights and I've seen some of you mfer's get perfect 12/12 predictions...some down to predicting the round ending.
 
Fig. Is very cocky. I don’t know much about Moreno but fig stalks recklessly hands down and just shows zero respect and is intimidating these guys. and if Moreno has any skill on his feet he can capitalize off of that. But I haven’t watched enough to know about him.

fig fights like a guy who respects nobody and thinks he will blow the guy up. He has a lot of bad habits on his feet which makes him exciting and a killer. But there’s no 125 lber who can take advantage of that. Other than Mighty Mouse but I don’t think he’s even fighting at that weight anymore. I don’t think you’re going to grind out fig. He’s strong and good submissions.

He’s a guy who fell in love with his power. So if there’s a good counter puncher at 125. Which doesn’t exist. Bet on that guy.
 
DS66 said:
When it comes to betting on MMA, I'm a sucker for underdogs. Moreno's a pretty sizeable underdog in this one: $100 wager pays $360. I feel like that's a pretty good bet on a well rounded guy like Moreno who has never been finished and has a phenomenal gas tank and chin, vs an explosive guy like Fig who cuts a lot of weight and has only been pulled into deep waters a couple times (one of which he lost). Fig's path to victory is finishing a guy who has never been finished, while Moreno's path to victory is grinding through 5 rounds, in which case he'll most likely win the decision after losing the first round or 2. Seems like a worthwhile bet....

However Fig will probably just starch him, right? Am I guilty of talking myself up on the underdog's chances, when in reality Fig is the big favorite for a reason (far more explosive and powerful fighter who can finish the fight several ways). Am I dumb for taking the underdog in this one? Should I just hold off and enjoy the fight without some cash riding on it? What are your thoughts almighty Sherbros.
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Bet slip or f*ck off.
 
Agree with others. If Moreno wins he will need to crush the champs and rounds four and five. I'll be betting on the champ for the second fight in a row.
 
Man it's tough. Moreno is definitely a live dog but I wouldn't do it.

On paper it's a good bet though because Moreno's chances are higher than the odds suggest. Save your money and get the house on Fiziev.
 
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