He could definitely win a decision. It is a distinct possibility that Chimaev gets ahead of himself and empties the gas tank in Round 1. In that case, Meerschaert has the cardio and the discipline to win Rounds 2 and 3. That is exactly what he did against Anders and Holland but the judges robbed him both times in split decisions. Look on mmmadecisions.com, literally everyone had Meerschaert losing Round 1 handily in those fights and then coming on strong to win Rounds 2 and 3. Chimaev could definitely secure a dominant position in Round 1 and then gas himself out trying to finish the fight.