More unlikely outcome - Masvidal winning 50-43 or Usman knocking Masvidal out cold?

[AI fanboy]

- I'd give Jorge a 5% chance of dominating Usman for all 5 rounds
- I'd give Usman a 10% chance of knocking Masvidal stiff

Usman is not devoid of power and it is a lot easier to KO a gassed fighter

 

[D'z]

Seems about right statistically.

 

[Martialbeef]

Can he ko him cold with elbows in mount?

 

[loisestrad]

Chances under 10 % are funny, mostly cuz they don't mean anything.

I'd give it a 6 % chance of Masvidal stopping Usman in the second round.

 

[AI fanboy]

Can he ko him cold with elbows in mount?

I doubt Usman can pass Masvidal's guard, especially when Jorge is fresh

I'm a Jorge hater but the dude is slick on the ground

 

[DivineMind]

I think it's considerably more likely that Usman KOs Mas than Mas dominating on the scorecards

 

[letgodiego]

If usman were to knock him out, I dont think it would be one shot. I could see him knocking him down then delivering a blow with mas on his back maybe. I think masvidals chances are in the first 2 and a half rounds.

 

[Fossor]

You should multiply Whosman's chance by 30%

 

[cshireman4]

Mas would have to score two 10-8 rounds in order for that to happen. One I could see, but never two. He'd be more likely to get a stoppage if he is doing that kind of damage consistently. I'm not at all impressed with Usman's finishing capabilities, but it's still far more probable than a 50-43 decision for Jorge.

 

[Luckyme]

Usman is not going to KO Masvidal. A TKO via ground strikes sure, but highly unlikely he knocks him out on the feet. Masvidal has a better chance of subbing Usman on the ground and if he’s smart, that’s how he’ll try to win the fight.

 

[daltonames]

- I'd give Jorge a 5% chance of dominating Usman for all 5 rounds
- I'd give Usman a 10% chance of knocking Masvidal stiff

Usman is not devoid of power and it is a lot easier to KO a gassed fighter

Masvidal hasn't been finished with strikes in 12 years. I doubt that Usman is gonna be the one to do it.

 

[Dana's Moonface]

I doubt either is likely

But mas is not dominating a 5 round decision

No chain hell

 

[capnlarge]

Just based on any two random fighters, KOs are a lot more common than 50-43s. A lot of judges will call a round 10-9 no matter what

On top of that, Masvidal's style specifically is one where he is just really hard to fight against, so he tends to have close, hard-to-score rounds.

 

[Goldentrophy]

I think with Pettis knocking out WB who at that point had never been knocked out and Pettis never obtaining a ko with punches before that bout should have put the stamp on a fighter succumbing to any ko loss despite who they are and who the opponent is isn't a stretch out of reality.

 

[Safton]

Just based on any two random fighters, KOs are a lot more common than 50-43s. A lot of judges will call a round 10-9 no matter what

Yep. The Nunes/Spencer fight convinced me that all of the supposed attempts by the UFC/commissions/whoever for judges to be more liberal with 10-8s or even 10-7s are for naught.

 

[SmoothPies]

Neither are completely out of the realm of possibility.

Anyone can KO anyone cold in MMA, especially someone as strong and athletic as Usman.

I also think that Masvidal certainly is capable of winning a decision against Usman, not sure what a 50-43 one would look like with him winning. Probably him just hurting Usman very badly in round 1, and Usman never being able to recover and getting picked apart for 4 rounds.

I would probably say that the Usman KO one is more likely

 

[NoSmilez]

Usman isn't a strong finisher.

 

[Mal Intentions]

id say theres a 0 chance of either one of those happening.

 

[countswagula]

Chances under 10 % are funny, mostly cuz they don't mean anything.

I'd give it a 6 % chance of Masvidal stopping Usman in the second round.

Does an 11% chance mean anything?

It's not like we're gonna see a huge sample of outcomes for Masvidal vs Usman, most predictions expressed through probability are kind of meaningless.

 

[Number 8]

Jesus people just stop it. Usman gonna wrestlefuck Mas for 5r. He's like a stronger GSP, even more boring...