I don’t particularly like either fighter to beat the favored opponent, but if I had to pick one, I’d pick Cowboy.
We know where Conor’s weaknesses are...doesn’t deal as well with pressure fighters, is rudimentary on the ground (for a professional) and has cardio issues (and some would say heart issues) late in fights. Cowboy does all of those things well, except that he has a tendency to start slow. It’s the slow start that I see being his undoing, with Conor getting the finish before the halfway mark of the third round while Cowboy is spamming low kicks and lunging forward with his jab.
tony vs khabib, in my opinion, will be a much better fight. Both fighters are solid everywhere, Tony has better and more unconventional striking, and Khabib wrestles with bears for fun. I don’t see Tony making a tactical mistake that allows himself to be subbed and he is too crafty to sit in a closed guard and get punched in the face repeatedly, but after five I see scorecards of 49-46, 49-46, 48-47 with Khabib taking it unanimously, Tony’s face beaten and bloodied, and then Sherdoggers finding ways to express that Khabib actually lost, because Tony outstruck him in a random round and that he got screwed by the judges, ignoring the fact that he will have been dropped on his head multiple times in that same round.