4/14/16 Democratic debate BATTLE FOR NY discussion thread!!!!!

[theBLADE1]

Tonight is going to be the biggest debate on the democratic side yet. Sanders remains around 10 points behind Clinton in the most recent polling data. This is also a day after Bernie Sanders filled up Washington Sq., Park in New York with 27,000 people in attendance with an estimated additional 20 to 25,000 overflowed into the streets surrounding.

This is also the head of a new Reuters poll that now has Sanders with a slight lead over Hillary Clinton amongst registered Democrats

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReuterTracking4132016.pdf

http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-leads-new-national-poll/

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday shows Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton by one point with registered Democratic voters.

The survey of 1,680 registered voters, 635 of whom identified as Democrats, was conducted between April 9 and April 13. Among all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by a 47-42 margin, with 11 percent of respondents saying they wouldn’t vote for either candidate. Sanders beats Clinton by a narrow margin of 49-48among registered Democrats, and he demolishes Clinton by 16 points among self-identified independents. The poll’s margin of error is 2.7 percent.

Among all respondents, 36 percent identify as Democrats, 28 percent affiliate with the Republican Party, and 12 percent listed themselves as independents, with 9 percent leaning toward Democrats, 5 percent toward Republican, and 7 percent favoring a third party. Finally, only 2 percent of those surveyed said they were unsure of their party affiliation.

This latest poll is the third to show Sanders leading Clinton this month. A poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Atlantic between March 30 and April 3 showed Sanders beating Clinton by one point, along with a McClatchy/Marist poll conducted between March 29 and March 31 that had Sanders up by two points.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Hillary Clinton is still narrowly ahead of Bernie Sanders, though her lead has shrunk considerably since the beginning of 2016. As the chart below shows, Sanders has been trending upward since his first win in the New Hampshire primary in February, while Clinton has been steadily trending downward:

EDIT: for those who can't watch this is a YouTube stream of the debate. Sorry for the wait a lot of people seem to have trouble accessing the forums tonight.

 

[Lead]

National polls are nice but even if Bernie had those same results reflected in the NY and CA polls, he would lose the race for nomination. Glad the debates have phased out recently but this should be a good one worth watching.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

National polls are not a good precursor to broken down on the state level. The poll you posted did not even bother to tell us the locational breakdown of their metrics - could be 1'000 dems from washington state.

WSJ just released a poll for NY that still has Clinton in double digit favoring. Shes still leading in Pen and Maryland.

 

[Sycho Sid]

I am pretty debated out at this point. Hopefully 538 or someone does a pbp. I just really want to see if anything different gets said.

My gut is telling me no.

 

[Lead]

National polls are not a good precursor to broken down on the state level. The poll you posted did not even bother to tell us the locational breakdown of their metrics - could be 1'000 dems from washington state.

WSJ just released a poll for NY that still has Clinton in double digit favoring. Shes still leading in Pen and Maryland.

To be fair, he mentioned the NY state poll having Bernie ten points down. To be just as fair, he generally magnifies/cherry picks the pro-Bernie data whether or not it is reliable for the specific discussion.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

To be fair, he mentioned the NY state poll having Bernie ten points down. To be just as fair, he generally magnifies/cherry picks the pro-Bernie data whether or not it reliable for the specific discussion.

ah true, my bad - i ignored it because its 13 points, not 10.

 

[Lead]

I think he is just referencing a specific poll thats the best one for Bernie in the range.

http://files.ctctcdn.com/9c83fb30501/049d74a7-5f98-473d-a602-b22bd5d04017.pdf

There isn't one that has him closer than by 10.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ork_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

 

[Lead]

What ticks me off about CNN and other tv is they have subscription services to watch online BUT you need to verify a cable subscription to use it. I would be perfectly happy to pay even $5 a month for a CNN Go since I don't have cable. They are stupid to not offer this either cause you can find a CNN stream in literally 10 seconds. They won't take my damn money cause cable is so desperate to pretend it still matters. It makes me wonder how they allocate revenues when I call Comcast and ask for just internet and they beg me to have basic cable for free. The cable made them nothing in that transaction or at least shouldn't have. So glad HBO made their own cableless subscription.

 

[Lead]

Also, Chrome keeps logging me out of everything, especially Sherdog. Rustle level approaching over 9000

 

[Anung Un Rama]

What ticks me off about CNN and other tv is they have subscription services to watch online BUT you need to verify a cable subscription to use it. I would be perfectly happy to pay even $5 a month for a CNN Go since I don't have cable. They are stupid to not offer this either cause you can find a CNN stream in literally 10 seconds. They won't take my damn money cause cable is so desperate to pretend it still matters. It makes me wonder how they allocate revenues when I call Comcast and ask for just internet and they beg me to have basic cable for free. The cable made them nothing in that transaction or at least shouldn't have. So glad HBO made their own cableless subscription.

You would pay $5/ month for CNN?

 

[theBLADE1]

If Sanders wins New York and California then all of Clinton's support base evaporates like THAT! She will not be nominated at the convention with the large majority of her support coming from the deep South. Bet on that.

 

[Lead]

You would pay $5/ month for CNN?

That's really the only cable news network I watched when I had it so yea. Bloomberg produces With All Due Respect online but aside from that, I have limited News type tv to view online.

 

[Lead]

If Sanders wins New York and California then all of Clinton's support base evaporates like THAT! She will not be nominated at the convention with the large majority of her support coming from the deep South. Bet on that.

The majority of her support would be from the country as a whole since she would've won the collective popular vote and elected delegate count.

 

[Pelosi2020]

National polls are nice but even if Bernie had those same results reflected in the NY and CA polls, he would lose the race for nomination. Glad the debates have phased out recently but this should be a good one worth watching.

Hillary is virtually a lock to win the nomination now. People want her to go after Bernie and B him TFO but that is just bad strategy.

Play it nice and polite with Bernie, appease his fan base while coasting in for the "narrow" victory. Hillary is an expert tactician and she knows she'll be needing his supporters in the general. She is thinking about the long game here.

There will not be any fireworks in this debate. Too risky at this point.

 

[theBLADE1]

The majority of her support would be from the country as a whole since she would've won the collective popular vote and elected delegate count.

That will not happen. Call me stupid now as long as I'm called correct later.

 

[SRN]

Also, Chrome keeps logging me out of everything, especially Sherdog. Rustle level approaching over 9000

It's happening with me too but I thought it was sherdog.

I'm looking forward to this, first time I'll be able to watch it live and not hours later.

 

[Lead]

That will not happen. Call me stupid now as long as I'm called correct later.

Not calling you stupid. I think you just really like Bernie and want to ignore some of the reliable indicators in this race.

 

[Lead]

It's happening with me too but I thought it was sherdog.

I'm looking forward to this, first time I'll be able to watch it live and not hours later.

It's not just sherdog with me but it does happen more frequent for sure. When I log in to my email or stuff, it always asks to text me a code to verify who I am cause it never recognizes the computer, even if I check "Don't ask me on this computer again."

 

[Anung Un Rama]

That's really the only cable news network I watched when I had it so yea. Bloomberg produces With All Due Respect online but aside from that, I have limited News type tv to view online.

It was all I watched, too, but I stopped when it got so bad I couldn't take it anymore.
I wouldn't watch CNN if they paid me $5/mo.

The only think cable news is good for is "breaking news", and I've found Sherdog PBP threads on those big stories to be ahead of or at least more thorough than CNN et al.

 

[theBLADE1]

Not calling you stupid. I think you just really like Bernie and want to ignore some of the reliable indicators in this race.

I don't ignore anything. You expect me to declare that Sanders has no chance and denounce any good news in the favor of Sanders as "cherry picking"or "wishful thinking" and I'm not going to do that because it's not true. It gets annoying.