Law 2025 Tax Reform: CTC/Business Tax Gap Extension likely to die in Senate

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The early bill before a 2025 showdown looks to be dead in the the Senate. Enough high ranking Republicans like Tillis and Cornyn (senators on the top list for succeeding McConnell as senate GOP leader) not interested in it's passage. The bill ultimately was filling in the gap before 2025 so everything would still be expiring again but at that same time.

'On life support': Senate Republicans are prepared to sink the child tax credit bill​

NBC

Senate Republicans are inching closer to burying a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit and provide breaks for businesses, issuing a series of demands that would most likely disrupt the coalition that enabled it to pass the House.

The $78 billion bill, negotiated by House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., passed the Republican-led House by a vote of 357-70 in January, a rare feat in a divided Congress that has struggled to function. But it has languished in the Senate, where key Republicans have said they’ll kill it unless it includes major revisions. Senate Democrats have 51 seats, and they need 60 votes to break a filibuster.


But with tax filing season close to finishing and election-year politics heating up, there’s no hint of a resolution in sight. Democratic leaders are eager to pass the legislation, which, according to one analysis, would benefit about 16 million children in low-income households. Some Republicans openly warn they may sink it.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a member of the Finance Committee, said he’d be happy to see the entire tax bill fade away.

“I hope so,” Tillis said, adding that it doesn’t have the necessary 60 votes to pass in the Senate today.

The Senate Should Reject the Wyden-Smith Tax Bill​

WSJ OpEd by Senator Tillis

If you listen to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, you would think that House Republicans secured a monumental tax deal that advances conservative priorities, justifying his public call for the Senate to pass it quickly.

As always, the devil is in the details. Senate Republicans have been doing their homework to find out what is actually in Mr. Smith and Sen. Ron Wyden’s Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 and what implications it would have on future tax policy. Upon further inspection, it’s hard to avoid the impression that House Republicans got played by Senate Democrats doing the bidding of the Biden administration.

The fundamental problem with the bill is that Republicans made a major concession to Democrats—allowing the child tax credit to begin to transition into a de facto welfare program—in return for something Democrats already wanted: research-and-development tax breaks for businesses.
President Biden and Democratic lawmakers have been keen to weaken the work requirements of the child tax credit as part of their “Build Back Better” agenda. They love to use the term “refundability,” which means ensuring that people get money from the government even if they don’t pay taxes.

I find this one a bit odd in the sense you don't usually see a largely bipartisan bill originate in the House and then die in the Senate like this. Normally the other way around.