WSOF 34 - Gaethje vs Firmino - New York

i'm not familiar with louis taylor, is branch -385 justified?
 
I think Shields at -134 (unibet) is a steal. Every fight Ive seen from Fitch in the past few years he hasnt looked too good. Shields is still grappling with the best off them and on the ground it's a mismatch imo. Fitch has a shot at outstriking him but I dont see him keeping Shields off him for long enough.
 
gaethje ITD -180

branch ITD -137

i love these, 5 round fights
 
squaresville for me. branch + shields + gaethje.
 
EzFlyer said:
gaethje ITD -180

branch ITD -137

i love these, 5 round fights
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ok a little more reasoning on these now that ufc's done:

re: gaethje itd
firmino slows down a lot and looks pretty dead after 15 mins. he's gotta go 25 mins w/gaethje, who's a freakin animal who never stops attacking. i know it's somewhat hyprocritcal cause i'm the guy who normally says stuff like "firmino's never been ko'd! 26 pro fights!" but i don't think he's fought anyone with the power and tdd combo as gaethje. don't think he can last 25.

re: branch itd
taylor is a finisher. he's not built for decisions / prolonged fights. in fact, the 37 year old has been to ONE decision in his entire career. back in 2008. branch is not a prolific finisher but it won't take much with taylor being totally gassed in 3/4/5, imo. so i absolutely think branch is gonna get him out of there before the final bell.
 
undercard up @ betathome

maybe jake heun +200?
 
rille31 said:
undercard up @ betathome

maybe jake heun +200?
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Slightly off but are their odds still horrible? Kind of liked the site but it opened lines at like 1.82/182 and such a couple of years back.
 
Slohog said:
Slightly off but are their odds still horrible? Kind of liked the site but it opened lines at like 1.82/182 and such a couple of years back.
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Yep still crazy juice so its pretty hard to find spots with value.

They do have unusual lines, I think they where one of the first euro bookies with rizin lines and often have ruski events like fen/m1 etc and somethimes open up ufc lines, for example they have madadi/duffy available and pretty much the only bookie with most undercard lines for wsof
 
hit paul bradley at even money, looks like he will be a fav soon.
 
gonna stab at moraes dec +273. we have a -900 favorite who can be passive for long stretches. he absolutely might finish him, obviously, but yea.
 
taking NOT shields DEC -120, too.

i think fitch is going to be very competitive. he could absolutley take it if it does go 5 (which, realistically, it probably does). but both guys have flaked out in the past at times, too, and it's a 5 round fight.

p.s. look at bradley decision prices, they flipped the line and people bet the obviously-bad-line and they haven't caught on yet...

bradley dec was -230 (which should've been NOT bradley dec at that price).. when his ML was -135.

lol.
 
piglord said:
hit paul bradley at even money, looks like he will be a fav soon.
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Wow he is now. Only fight with no action, held off on hitting Bradley ml last night thinking Okami would get bet if anything lol

I want to hit Okami decision now that lines have flipped....but....Okami moneyline +110......Okami dec -110.....

Please fix this before showtime 5d.
 
Fucckkk EZ i'm against you on everything here lol have fairly large action on that fight between o3.5, Shields dec and Shields ml. I think Fitch gets hugged for at least 3 of the 5 rounds.
 
Prices fixed. Okami dec +275. Easily best value on that fight now imo
 
WSOF 34 Risk: 1,012
Gaethje: 100 parlay / Gaethje ITD: 180 for 100 / Buscape
bradley +145: 150 for 217 / bradley DEC: 33 for 99 / O2.5: 90 for 50 / okami DEC: 27 for 66.15
fitch +150: 50 for 70 / O2.5: 90 for 50 / NOT shields DEC: 60 for 50
moraes DEC: 20 for 54.60 / silva
rosholt-alencar O1.5: 75 for 50
branch: 100 parlay / branch ITD: 137 for 100 / taylor
parlays
100 for 49.96 gaethje -385 & branch -525
---

might be done, idk. the parlay is dumb.i just wanted to lock somethign in on gaethje. i figured (and still do) gaethje would get hit hard w/parlays, etc. wanted to capitalize on price movement but it's so negligable that it's not worth it and shouldn't have bothered. i just closed it with branch at a price i WOULD NOT RECOMMEND because i'm OCD and it's not optimal, cause i wanna close out my 2017 books w/this event, lol. i don't want a carryover parlay and you should never do a carryover open parlay, because it's pointless. (you could just bet the leg straight and put it all on the later stuff if you want to then)

looking forward to this card.

need gaethje and branch to get those stoppages. let's go, bradley!
 
Joseph Budden said:
Fucckkk EZ i'm against you on everything here lol have fairly large action on that fight between o3.5, Shields dec and Shields ml. I think Fitch gets hugged for at least 3 of the 5 rounds.
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you mean on that one fight? i wouldn't lose much if it's a shields dec. a unit.
 
EzFlyer said:
you mean on that one fight? i wouldn't lose much if it's a shields dec. a unit.
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No I mean on everything, at least that i've seen you post. I think Moraes finishes and i've stabbed Branch dec. Just can't back the Branch itd price even if Taylor's gas tank alone makes him vulnerable here, so hoping Branch is ok laying on him and Taylor can avoid hard punches on the feet

Also think I saw you on Bradley and i'm now officially on Okami dec with price switches
 
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