Who will break who? Ferguson vs Nurmagomedov.

[FlyingKimurabar]

Both are too tough to be broken. Though Khabibs top game looks like it could break just about anyone.

 

[Jermei]

I can see Khabib having the early going with his wrestling, I just can't see him hanging on that way for 25 mins. Tony looked like a machine against RDA. That guy shows up and I think Khabib will run out of steam and get worked in later rounds.

Fights start standing and Khabib has to get the fight down to smash Tony but I don't think he will... most of if not all of round 1 will be Tony picking Khabib apart.

 

[mkess101]

Cardio in a fight is related to confidence and how a fighter handles fear just as much as how 'fit' they are. You can be super fit and gas in 2 min if you are not comfortable in the cage, whereas you can train for two weeks, be unfit as hell and do pretty well if you have no nerves to shut you down. The thing is in big fights- if your camp goes smooth, you are super fit , well sparred and ready to fight, your confidence is high and your adrenaline is kept in check so you can fight for 5 rounds.

Yeah adrenaline dumps are real, for sure. But guys also just have different cardio ceilings. Tony just has a cardio ceiling that's on another level than most guys. No matter how much someone trains, they won't get to that level. It's just physiological.

Tony isn't gonna gas, it's just not gonna happen. If he loses, it's not gonna be because he wears down and his cardio fails him. Which means him being "broken" is a remote chance.

 

[Codpiece]

Fights start standing and Khabib has to get the fight down to smash Tony but I don't think he will... most of if not all of round 1 will be Tony picking Khabib apart.

We see pretty different fights.

I think Khabib will have success clinching Ferg on the fence to score TDs early. But Tony is great in scrambles and I reckon he will wear Khabib out trying to control him. I do see Tony picking Khabib apart, just not early.

 

[mkess101]

Both are too tough to be broken. Though Khabibs top game looks like it could break just about anyone.

RDA didn't take any damage. He was frustrated as hell because he couldn't stop Khabib from taking him down, but hardly "broken".

 

[mkess101]

There is no way to know the answer. Thats what makes this FOTY potential. I personally can't see either man breaking. Therefore I think a KO /TKO is less likely than most match ups. However I can see a MJ-Khabib type scenario - Khabib gets tired and worn out of bashing on a gutsy opponent so gets a sub. I cannot see Tony tapping from strikes or turtling up to a ref stoppage, but I think after a through besting Khabib can get a sub on the wild Tony.

I've put fifty smackers on Khabib by sub, got 6.25 to 1 for a nice little return if it happens.

You realize Tony on his back is an entirely different animal than MJ right? The guys Khabib has fought with any semlance of a guard game have taken little to no damage while on their backs against him. His top control is outstanding obviously, but using RDA as the example (and to be honest, RDA's guard is solid but not amazing--he's an extremely good top position grappler though) Khabib did zero damage and never came close to beginning to threaten a sub.

 

[UhHuhSure]

You just said props to him not quitting tho, as if thats something that required a lot of heart, something that khabib has never proven he's had to dig for.... cmon man

plenty of fighters finished their fights with broken bones. If he had turned that fight around and won it, my stance would be totally different on the matter. Also he was literaly Broken there.

Khabib has overcome every mma challenge he's faced (from the videos I've seen). Both these guys are badasses. I just think Khabib is going to show who is tougher.

 

[davidlemonparty]

You realize Tony on his back is an entirely different animal than MJ right? The guys Khabib has fought with any semlance of a guard game have taken little to no damage while on their backs against him. His top control is outstanding obviously, but using RDA as the example (and to be honest, RDA's guard is solid but not amazing--he's an extremely good top position grappler though) Khabib did zero damage and never came close to beginning to threaten a sub.

yeh sure thing, its a step up in competition. The sub is not the go to in my mind - its several rounds of positional dominance and GnP that will lead to the opportunity of a sub opening up later in the match.

of course, the bet is 6:1 for a reason and bookies aren't stupid. however, this match is such an enigma i think my guess (theory?) is as good as any!

 

[andy9432]

Tony says Khabib is a bully. I really think he believes that. His style reminds me of a bully too. Hes not used to adversity. If it goes into the later rounds then for sure Khabib will break

 

[mkess101]

plenty of fighters finished their fights with broken bones. If he had turned that fight around and won it, my stance would be totally different on the matter. Also he was literaly Broken there.

Khabib has overcome every mma challenge he's faced (from the videos I've seen). Both these guys are badasses. I just think Khabib is going to show who is tougher.

I would argue he didn't really "overcome" the challenge vs Tibau. 3 people sitting cageside disagreed and gave him the win I guess, though all the media outlets scoring it gave it to Tibau and I think Tibau probably should have won. Either way, that's the one fight where Khabib's wrestling was completely shut down and he really had no answers at all. He barely landed anything, and of the paltry # of punches he did land, none were meaningful. Tibau about the same LOL. Khabib leaned against Tibau on the cage a bit, which some judges reward and others don't.

You can say he "overcame the challenge" since he won, but if I said Diego Sanchez "overcame the challenge" of Ross Pearson I'd be acting like a moron even though Diego "won". This one wasn't as bad as that for sure, but it was hardly Khabib "overcoming" anything.

 

[mkess101]

yeh sure thing, its a step up in competition. The sub is not the go to in my mind - its several rounds of positional dominance and GnP that will lead to the opportunity of a sub opening up later in the match.

of course, the bet is 6:1 for a reason and bookies aren't stupid. however, this match is such an enigma i think my guess (theory?) is as good as any!

It's not just the sub though. Khabib hasn't even damaged (I mean even a little) any of the guys with solid guard games he's fought. Thinking now he can all of a sudden figure out how to hold position and land meaningful GNP vs someone who's not a turtle on their back is pretty optimistic.

 

[UhHuhSure]

There is no way to know the answer. Thats what makes this FOTY potential. I personally can't see either man breaking. Therefore I think a KO /TKO is less likely than most match ups. However I can see a MJ-Khabib type scenario - Khabib gets tired and worn out of bashing on a gutsy opponent so gets a sub. I cannot see Tony tapping from strikes or turtling up to a ref stoppage, but I think after a through besting Khabib can get a sub on the wild Tony.

I've put fifty smackers on Khabib by sub, got 6.25 to 1 for a nice little return if it happens.

dang 6:1 thats a helluva ROI and it is totally possible given the way he finishes fights.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

Tony by kimura

Funny I have Khabib via kimura from side control

 

[MMASpeculator]

Both these guys fully believe they will break the other. I believe it could happen either way. Some one will break. Who will it be? Khabib could twist one of Tony's arms off behind his back or crucifix him and pound his face into ground hamburger. On the other hand, I could see Tony KOing Khabib with a knee or maybe a bunch of simultaneous strikes, TKOing a wobbly Khabib. It is also possible that Tony could finish with the Darce, although that may be a long shot with Khabib's strength to power out. Am I missing any likely finishes to this one? I don't think its going the distance.

These are two of the most mentally tough fighters on the roster but my hunch says Tony is the more conditioned fighter and he will show it int he championship rounds.

 

[Jermei]

We see pretty different fights.

I think Khabib will have success clinching Ferg on the fence to for TDs early. But Tony is great in scrambles and I reckon he will wear Khabib out trying to control him. I do see Tony picking Khabib apart, just not early.

So when the fight starts and they move towards each other what happens....? Khabib just "gets a takedown" and goes to work, or Tony starts jabbing with that reach advantage... I see jabbing and strikes from a distance from Tony like its a Jon Jones fight.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

It's not just the sub though. Khabib hasn't even damaged (I mean even a little) any of the guys with solid guard games he's fought. Thinking now he can all of a sudden figure out how to hold position and land meaningful GNP vs someone who's not a turtle on their back is pretty optimistic.

You did see the sick ground and pound he did on MJ to get MJ to open up right?

 

[UhHuhSure]

I would argue he didn't really "overcome" the challenge vs Tibau. 3 people sitting cageside disagreed and gave him the win I guess, though all the media outlets scoring it gave it to Tibau and I think Tibau probably should have won. Either way, that's the one fight where Khabib's wrestling was completely shut down and he really had no answers at all. He barely landed anything, and of the paltry # of punches he did land, none were meaningful. Tibau about the same LOL. Khabib leaned against Tibau on the cage a bit, which some judges reward and others don't.

You can say he "overcame the challenge" since he won, but if I said Diego Sanchez "overcame the challenge" of Ross Pearson I'd be acting like a moron even though Diego "won". This one wasn't as bad as that for sure, but it was hardly Khabib "overcoming" anything.

thats your opinion on the fight. Tibau was in his prime and juiced like a mofo. Khabib didnt have success with his TD but he beat him standing. Yeah I saw your stats on the strikes in the other thread and I dont think Tibau connect nearly as often as you gave him credit for.

You cant say none of the strikes where meaningful. Khabib busted Tibau up on the right side of his face, you can see it at the end of RD1. By the end of RD2 he was bleeding from the right side of his face. RD3 I gave to Tibau barely. It wasn't a barnburner of a fight but it was a tough challenge and Khabib overcame it... MMA judging is a joke and Rogan did no justice in the commentary.

Its pretty obvious your on Team Ferguson, but I call it like I see it.

 

[Magnum1978]

I don't think either will 'Break' - one might beat the other, but I can't see anyone bar the ref stepping in to stop it. Lets hope the ref isn't too trigger happy with a stoppage and lets them fight until they are finished or have given absolutely everything and basically on the brink of being in a living death before any stoppage occurs. They deserve as much opportunity as a fighter ever should get to test if they will 'break'

One of the great fights in MMA history, you might get one of these every couple of years. Enjoying the potential so hope this lived up to it

 

[UseARubberGuard]

24-0 is enough evidence about his heart and determination. and getting your arm broken is not a good look, props to him for not quitting though.

24-0 is evidence of skill, not heart. You're entirely guessing about Khabib's will power. We know for a fact that when the going gets tough, Tony digs deep. He may not beat Khabib, but it won't be without pouring his soul into the fight.

 

[mkess101]

You did see the sick ground and pound he did on MJ to get MJ to open up right?

Yes. Did you see where I said "vs someone who's not a complete turtle on their back".

MJ is a good striker with improved TDD. Once put on his back though he's not good at all.