UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

[Joedaman55]

Also before we start prematurely writing off Cigano. Let’s consider the points

—His suspension overturned early makes it less likely that he has a big decline
—34 is mid prime for HWs
—He has wins vs the 3 best HWs of all time: Stipe, Cain, and Werdum
— He has never even lost a round to anybody but Cain, Stipe, and Reem

Ivanov doesn’t look any better than Hunt or Rothwell and look what JDS did to those guys. You are really banking on a considerable decline for him to lose and the price isnt that juiced

I thought his decline looked obvious in the Miocic fight. Not saying he’ll lose but the odds don’t reflect what JDS is now.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Oracle bet Scoggins, Volkanovski,Niko Price , Bermudez and JDS by decision.
Quite the opposite than me, Im on Randy, Nurmagomedov and Ivanov.

 

[Yotsuya]

Oracle bet Scoggins, Volkanovski,Niko Price , Bermudez and JDS by decision.
Quite the opposite than me, Im on Randy, Nurmagomedov and Ivanov.

JDS dec sounds smart if he's lost some power lately but still has the skills.

 

[NorthernLights]

I thought his decline looked obvious in the Miocic fight. Not saying he’ll lose but the odds don’t reflect what JDS is now.

Did it really? He's not improving, but that's not the same as declining. Stipe exploited the fact that JDS still has the same old flaws.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

JDS dec sounds smart if he's lost some power lately but still has the skills.

Im on Ivanov by ko, respect to JDS if he wins

 

[GrantSorenson]

Fight not to go the distance is the play for me in Northcutt vs Ottow and JDS vs Ivanov.

Northcutt is so vulnerable to being subbed and panic tapped vs Barberena. He looks to have a pretty big speed advantage though and Ottow doesn't like getting hit so he can definitely get Ottow out of there.

I can really see Ivanov catching JDS with a left hook at the end of his combination. Say he throws a 1-2-3, that last left hook looks like it will land and put JDS on queer street but he has to do it before his leg gets chewed up like Stipes did. I think JDS will be landing heavy leg kicks which will force Ivanov to shit or get off the pot like it did for Stipe, who could barely walk. That kind of leg kick either shuts an opponent down or wakes them up and makes them apply serious pressure and take risks.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

They get old depending on their styles.

33 is mid-prime for bigger weight classes because they are less speed dependent. And maybe some smaller guys who thrive on skill can stay relevant for a while. But speed is the first thing to go in the 30's, so a fighter like Mendes who is HEAVILY dependent on speed with short arms is going to be a clear candidate for a big regression even without USADA.

Lucky he has wrestling for plan b if there is a problem

 

[Gugabe]

Volk-Elkins GTD @ -200 feels like a good price. They both feel like they got more finishes from the other guy giving up, than they do from their own styles. Most likely way I see a sub coming is a late RNC from Elkins if Volk's a turtle on his back, but otherwise I'd cap the GTD way closer to -300.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Is mended going to wrestle much. Good dk play? He could get a lot td maybe but play safe and chill on the mat. Or will it be a strat only if he is losing? Or maybe a quick one to seal rounds? Hmmm.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Over or under Mendes takedown 4

 

[mkess101]

Is mended going to wrestle much. Good dk play? He could get a lot td maybe but play safe and chill on the mat. Or will it be a strat only if he is losing? Or maybe a quick one to seal rounds? Hmmm.

My guess is to seal close rds maybe if needed. Jury isn't an elite guard player, but he's slick enough that Chad had better be careful if he plans on top control being his plan A.

Obviously if Chad's losing the striking battle he'll try to wrestle. I think rd 1 he avoids it. Once both have worked up a sweat it becomes more safe.

 

[mkess101]

Over or under Mendes takedown 4

Gun to my head I'd take under but that's a crapshoot honestly. Under seems safer as it covers both an earlier stoppage and covers of it ends up a striking match.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Gun to my head I'd take under but that's a crapshoot honestly. Under seems safer as it covers both an earlier stoppage and covers of it ends up a striking match.

Thanks . Tricky. Feel its one to get right. Could be big score or low depending on his approach. He got 8 or 9 v lentz. It's how he feels about jury jitz I guess.

 

[mkess101]

Thanks . Tricky. Feel its one to get right. Could be big score or low depending on his approach. He got 8 or 9 v lentz. It's how he feels about jury jitz I guess.

Yeah. Or if Chad is just consistently beating Jury to the punch he likely will just stick to his striking.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Taping scoggins now. Got to try work out what he's going to do. Early in looks like he can take him down IF he wants. Also got the intangible that he may fight different to his gameplan

 

[GrantSorenson]

Taping scoggins now. Got to try work out what he's going to do. Early in looks like he can take him down IF he wants. Also got the intangible that he may fight different to his gameplan

Scoggins has done some extremely dumb shit in the Octagon. I don't think I would trust the guy to tie his own shoelaces, nevermind follow a good gameplan.

 

[Dooze]

Elkins a big underdog again?

Sure if Volkswagen can it a kickboxing match he cruises to a decision but he's done it against low level guys so far.

The most relentless grappler in the division as his first big test and available at +210 and better? Seems an obvious bet.

Volk is strong and bullies people into being a punching bag; Elkins me regarding takes a step back so any time that Volk goes forward Elkins will be clinching and making Volk work.

Elkins has shown great cardio and an unbreakable spirit. He'll probably lose the first round but tire out a musclebound freak like Volk via constant clinch work and grappling and take over in the latter half of the fight.

Elkins is the bet for me here.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Not impressed after the pereria fight

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Elkins a big underdog again?

Sure if Volkswagen can it a kickboxing match he cruises to a decision but he's done it against low level guys so far.

The most relentless grappler in the division as his first big test and available at +210 and better? Seems an obvious bet.

Volk is strong and bullies people into being a punching bag; Elkins me regarding takes a step back so any time that Volk goes forward Elkins will be clinching and making Volk work.

Elkins has shown great cardio and an unbreakable spirit. He'll probably lose the first round but tire out a musclebound freak like Volk via constant clinch work and grappling and take over in the latter half of the fight.

Elkins is the bet for me here.

No brainier. However it plays out I don't think Elkins bet will feel to wrong. Volk however, may give Elkins the exact fight he wants. Elkins may even be best there. Plus potential for some unanswered questions. A volk bet with hindsight may feel stupid at these prices

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Scoggins has done some extremely dumb shit in the Octagon. I don't think I would trust the guy to tie his own shoelaces, nevermind follow a good gameplan.

My focus is dk this week so I do t have to pick a side. (Although I will and will be scogging I think) I just need to be able to picture the fight