UFN 117 - OSP vs Shogun II - Japan

[raketmannen]

I would be absolutely shocked in Andrade took Claudia down.

And even if andrade takes claudia down, claudia's bjj is so much better than andrades. Andrade is a blue belt who took her first BJJ class when she was 19. I think the most likely outcome of this fight is claudia submission actually

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I know it was a long fucking time ago and hardly relevant, but OSP hasn't made incredible leaps and bounds in his takedown defense, and his cardio still remains a major issue. If this fight gets outside of the 7.5 minute mark, Okami may have a path to victory. What I was talking about not having much relevance he is the saint preux vs benji radach fight in strikeforce. This was a fight where OSP was a monstrous 205 pound fighter who took on an undersized middleweight who should have been competing at welterweight. In fact Benji is smaller than Okami.

Nevertheless, Benji had a lot of success getting in on OSPs hips and taking him to the mat time and time again. Of course OSP was victorious, but he so worked for it, and Benji took him to the absolute break. A few years ago I would've said that this has zero relevancy, however with OSP plateauing or potentially even devolving a bit, and with his conditioning still suspect, Okami has the ability to implement a similar style with which Benji was successful for many periods of the fight. I know that Okami is also long in the tooth and is at the end of his rope, but Okami now, is arguably much better than Benji ever was

Also he's going to be fighting in Japan where he should be most comfortable. OSP is making the long trip across the Pacific and we could see issues from this. Historically Japanese fighters have always fared better in Japan. Indeed, this is most likely a result of the long flight to the states. Phil Baroni used to talk about this all the time, and we seen just how much better guys like Hatsu Haoki would look when he was fighting in Japan as opposed to finding abroad. Just something to consider when you have a +400 dog.

Although I imagine him get smoking in the first frame, I also believe a flier on Okami by decision isn't the craziest idea. i'm just trying to find a way to justify the bet, and although this is a stretch, there is a kernel of truth in it. +600 decision prop is worth a sprinkle in my opinion. OSP just has so many fucking hole and I've never thought he was that good.

 

[edole]

My favorite play on this card is Keita Nakamura.

Alex Moreno is not ufc caliber imo.

I also like Dy over Ishihara.

Formiga > Sasaki

Abe > Lim

 

[ill800]

Yeah fair enough, 115 girls just can't really punch hard enough to KO eachother but Andrade is one of the hardest hitters at 115. Her pace is more impressive than her power IMO.

I just finished rewatching the Claudia vs Casey fight and even though Claudia dominated that fight she did she glimpses of her cardio issues. A lot of heavy breathing and a decline in movement in the 2nd and 3rd round She fought in bursts and dictated the pace of that fight. She was able to secure takedowns easy because Casey can't stop a takedown to save her life. But the pace of that fight was fairly passive, Claudia was able to take plenty of breaks and in the 3rd she got a massive break after Casey faked getting hit with that illegal kick.

My point is, Andrade fights at a much more aggressive pace, she always moves forward and pressures, Claudia will have to spend a lot of energy to match the pace. While I expect Claudia to get takedowns, I don't think she will get them at will, some of them will get stuffed, Andrade is not Courtney Casey and Andrade does have some effective wrestling herself. Could see Claudia take the 1st round and then slow down in the 2nd and 3rd.

Before Andrade fought JJ, she was so hyped but after we saw JJ the GOAT dominate her, people are now doubting her how good she is. JJ just fought a great fight, very tactical. Styles make fights and Andrade is a tough style match up for Claudia. I am not confident in Claudia's ability to just takedown Andrade and have her way, I think you're being real optimistic if you think that.

A couple things:

Casey didn’t fake anything in that fight. She got hit.

Claudia doesn’t exactly fight at a low pace. Andrade isnt going to be able to fight in full on berzerker mode like she did against Hill. She will have to respect the takedowns or Claudia will easily put her on her back.

Claudia’s camp has likely pointed out that gadelha can exploit andrades aggression and overcommitment to her strikes. If Andrade hasn’t made adjustments she’s going to get dumped

I was never high on Andrade. She’s a flawed fighter. As another poster mentioned, if she can’t overwhelm you with her volume and strength then she loses.

I’m pretty confident with my play on Claudia. Johanna is 1a and Claudia is 1b.
She put karolina on her back and subbed her in the first round like she was nothing.

She’s an elite fighter and she’s going to show everyone why tonight

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

A couple things:

Casey didn’t fake anything in that fight. She got hit.

Claudia doesn’t exactly fight at a low pace. Andrade isnt going to be able to fight in full on berzerker mode like she did against Hill. She will have to respect the takedowns or Claudia will easily put her on her back.

Claudia’s camp has likely pointed out that gadelha can exploit andrades aggression and overcommitment to her strikes. If Andrade hasn’t made adjustments she’s going to get dumped

I was never high on Andrade. She’s a flawed fighter. As another poster mentioned, if she can’t overwhelm you with her volume and strength then she loses.

I’m pretty confident with my play on Claudia. Johanna is 1a and Claudia is 1b. She’s an elite fighter and she’s going to show everyone why tonight

You gotta rewatch that fight if you don't think Casey was faking it. The kick clearly missed, and Casey was acting like she just got hit with a baseball bat. Didn't Casey used to be like a semi-pro soccer player or something? you know what flopping is?

Don't really agree with your assessment of the match up, a lot of wishful thinking but we'll see I guess, can understand people picking CG but the price is way too steep IMO.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Fight stats

Shinsho Anzai vs Luke Jumeau

Fight Weight: 170lbs
170lbs Weight 170lbs
69 inches Reach 72 inches
5'9" Height 5'11"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
31 Age 29


Keita Nakamura vs Alex Morono

Fight Weight: 170lbs
170lbs Weight 170lbs
73 inches Reach 72 inches
5'11" Height 5'11"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
33 Age 27


Syuri Kondo vs Chan-Mi Jeon

Fight Weight: 115lbs
115lbs Weight 115lbs
66 inches Reach 67 inches
5'4" Height 5'6"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
28 Age 20


Rolando Dy vs Teruto Ishihara

Fight Weight: 145lbs
145lbs Weight 145lbs
69.5 inches Reach 69 inches
5'8" Height 5'7"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
26 Age 26


Takanori Gomi vs Dong Hyun Kim

Fight Weight: 155lbs
155lbs Weight 155lbs
70 inches Reach 70.5 inches
5'7" Height 5'11"
Switches (Mostly Southpaw) Stance Switches (Equal Both)
39 Age 29


Gokhan Saki vs Luis Henrique da Silva

Fight Weight: 205lbs
205lbs Weight 205lbs
NA inches Reach 76.5 inches
73.5 inches Reach 76.5 inches
6'0' Height 6'3"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
33 Age 28


Hyun Gyu Lim vs Daichi Abe

Fight Weight: 170lbs
170lbs Weight 170lbs
79 inches Reach 72 inches
6'3" Height 5'11"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
32 Age 25


Jussier Formiga vs Ulka Sasaki

Fight Weight: 125lbs
125lbs Weight 125lbs
67 inches Reach 71 inches
5'5" Height 5'10"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
32 Age 27


Claudia Gadelha vs Jessica Andrade

Fight Weight: 115lbs
115lbs Weight 115lbs
63.5 inches Reach 62 inches
5'3" Height 5'2"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
28 Age 25


Ovince St Preux vs Yushin Okami

Fight Weight: 205lbs
205lbs Weight 205lbs
80 inches Reach 75 inches
6'4" Height 6'2"
Switches (Mostly Southpaw) Stance Southpaw
34 Age 36

 

[Sham5916910]

You gotta rewatch that fight if you don't think Casey was faking it. The kick clearly missed, and Casey was acting like she just got hit with a baseball bat. Didn't Casey used to be like a semi-pro soccer player or something? you know what flopping is?

Don't really agree with your assessment of the match up, a lot of wishful thinking but we'll see I guess, can understand people picking CG but the price is way too steep IMO.

What did he say thats wishful thinking? Looked like facts to me.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

This is the last thing you should be concerned with. Kondo is leagues above Jeon in wrestling/grappling. If you haven't already, watch Jeon's second to last fight against the 0-0 girl, she almost gets tapped repeatedly.

Is it on YT?

Well if she doesn't have the wrestling, this is a fucked up line it looks like. I could be wrong though?

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I was willing to parlay Kondo and instead found her line at +110 and +115, was pretty shocked. She is my biggest bet of the card. Also hit her sub line +879 as Jeon's grappling is atrocious.

Thx bud! BOL

 

[Orion]

Claudia sounding more interested in standing up:

 

[ill800]

I’m watching tape on kondo. She’s a little beast. She keeps it simple too. One twos. Hands come right back to her face. She brings the fight. Stays busy. Stays in your face

She doesn’t roll out quickly enough after she attacks which leaves her open to counters. Not much lateral movement. Jumps in and out a lot. Not a lot of feinting. Not much head movement. Somewhat predictable

Pretty good in the clinch. Seems like she has some strength. Throws lots of knees to the body

Checks leg kicks

Tdd is good. She only gets taken down when she gets too aggressive and pops back up quickly

Wrestling/grappling is pretty good too. Seems like she has jiu jitsu knowledge but would rather get a dominant position and punch you in the face

She’s a very well rounded fighter and I see a lot of potential in her. Would like to see her against Angela Hill.

She should have no problems with jeon. Jeon has a reach advantage but she’s not one to utilize it. I would cap kondo closer to -200

Wish I would’ve watched the tape sooner. I have to settle for -130 smh

 

[Sadistics]

Is it on YT?

Well if she doesn't have the wrestling, this is a fucked up line it looks like. I could be wrong though?

I've got 10 units on Kondo between ML, sub, and NSC. The line is definitely off.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

So currently I'm in Vegas and I just discovered something... I'm at the Rio Hotel sportsbook and they let me bet the ML and the O/U in the same parlay....



^ Not exactly a solid ticket but I'm thinking for future cards I'm going to finesse these fuckers

 

[Sham5916910]

Claudia sounding more interested in standing up:

Hyperbole not gonna give her gameplan up

 

[Sham5916910]

Is it on YT?

Well if she doesn't have the wrestling, this is a fucked up line it looks like. I could be wrong though?

Yes lol we also find her last fight before her ufc debut. Atrocious

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

What did he say thats wishful thinking? Looked like facts to me.

lol of course you think that.

There is a misconception about Andrade and her grappling, you guys are really underestimating her and you are trying to find confidence in past results that do not reflect the fighter she is now. Saying Andrade is a turtle on her back is misleading, she has a solid get up game and she's not easy to takedown. Did she look like a turtle on her back vs Carmouche? YES but that was her UFC debut at 135, 4+ years ago, you can't compare 2013 Andrade to 2017 Andrade.

Pennington was the last fighter to beat Andrade and she was the last fighter to take her down. That was a very competitive fight, Pennington got 2 takedowns and Andrade didn't even attempt to defend them, instead she went for a guillotines, both times. Andrade actually took down Pennington 4 times in that fight.

Andrade gassed in that fight before she gave up a bad position and got subbed. And she gassed because she was fighting a bigger girl that made her work, Andrade tries to muscle a lot of techniques, she's rely's on her physicality a lot. the difference between her physicality at 115 and 135 is night and day, same can be said for her cardio. She has one of the best gas tanks at 115, pushes a very high pace.

So all this confidence in CG's ability to just takedown Andrade with ease and dominate her is based on obsolete information and I just think it's wishful thinking.

 

[Sham5916910]

lol of course you think that.

There is a misconception about Andrade and her grappling, you guys are really underestimating her and you are trying to find confidence in past results that do not reflect the fighter she is now. Saying Andrade is a turtle on her back is misleading, she has a solid get up game and she's not easy to takedown. Did she look like a turtle on her back vs Carmouche? YES but that was her UFC debut at 135, 4+ years ago, you can't compare 2013 Andrade to 2017 Andrade.

Pennington was the last fighter to beat Andrade and she was the last fighter to take her down. That was a very competitive fight, Pennington got 2 takedowns and Andrade didn't even attempt to defend them, instead she went for a guillotines, both times. Andrade actually took down Pennington 4 times in that fight.

Andrade gassed in that fight before she gave up a bad position and got subbed. And she gassed because she was fighting a bigger girl that made her work, Andrade tries to muscle a lot of techniques, she's rely's on her physicality a lot. the difference between her physicality at 115 and 135 is night and day, same can be said for her cardio. She has one of the best gas tanks at 115, pushes a very high pace.

So all this confidence in CG's ability to just takedown Andrade with ease and dominate her is based on obsolete information and I just think it's wishful thinking.

You are the one with wishful thinking. Facts are facts andrade has looked trash on bottom. You are assuming she is a lot better now but im going with what ive seen in the past and that is she cant fight off her back. Maybe she has improved but is it enough cos gadelha is the best grappler shes ever faced. History suggests it wont be. There was 2 yrs between her being smashed by carmouche on bottom and being subd by raquel (not to mention sarah moraes havibg a rnc fully locked in) and there didnt seem any improvement. Raquel literally subd her within 10 secs of taking her back. So here we arw two years further on and shes still with the same camp i do not expect huge improvements frim bottom. I wonder if shes even trained much from bottom since dropping to sw as shes only fought strikers since her debut fight at sw.

She didnt give up the td's either to raquel she was gone so went for the guillotine. And how do you know shes not easy to td? The only decent people shes fought who wanted to take her down took her down. Her tdd % is skewed cos she stuffed loads of telegraphed horrible td attempts from the likes of moraes and penne.

 

[iGnP]

You are the one with wishful thinking. Facts are facts andrade has looked trash on bottom. You are assuming she is a lot better now but im going with what ive seen in the past and that is she cant fight off her back. Maybe she has improved but is it enough cos gadelha is the best grappler shes ever faced. History suggests it wont be. There was 2 yrs between her being smashed by carmouche on bottom and being subd by raquel (not to mention sarah moraes havibg a rnc fully locked in) and there didnt seem any improvement. Raquel literally subd her within 10 secs of taking her back. So here we arw two years further on and shes still with the same camp i do not expect huge improvements frim bottom. I wonder if shes even trained much from bottom since dropping to sw as shes only fought strikers since her debut fight at sw.

She didnt give up the td's either to raquel she was gone so went for the guillotine. And how do you know shes not easy to td? The only decent people shes fought who wanted to take her down took her down. Her tdd % is skewed cos she stuffed loads of telegraphed horrible td attempts from the likes of moraes and penne.

just curious but do you not share your doubles anymore? im wondering who the second leg

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

You are the one with wishful thinking. Facts are facts andrade has looked trash on bottom. You are assuming she is a lot better now but im going with what ive seen in the past and that is she cant fight off her back. Maybe she has improved but is it enough cos gadelha is the best grappler shes ever faced. History suggests it wont be. There was 2 yrs between her being smashed by carmouche on bottom and being subd by raquel (not to mention sarah moraes havibg a rnc fully locked in) and there didnt seem any improvement. Raquel literally subd her within 10 secs of taking her back. So here we arw two years further on and shes still with the same camp i do not expect huge improvements frim bottom. I wonder if shes even trained much from bottom since dropping to sw as shes only fought strikers since her debut fight at sw.

She didnt give up the td's either to raquel she was gone so went for the guillotine. And how do you know shes not easy to td? The only decent people shes fought who wanted to take her down took her down. Her tdd % is skewed cos she stuffed loads of telegraphed horrible td attempts from the likes of moraes and penne.

We're talking 20 pounds and years of training. Let me reiterate the significance of 20 pounds for a 115er, it's massive, imagine DJ fighting Holloway

And why did Andrade lose to Pennington? because she gassed and she was fighting a bigger girl, getting out of positions is a lot harder when you have a bigger opponent.

why did she gas? because she was fighting in the wrong weight class. At 115 she can go all day and she doesn't get out muscled

115ers can't do what 135ers did to Andrade, the size makes things very different, Andrades has more advantages and less disadvantages at 115.

Name me another 115er that could go and whoop on the 135ers?

 

[MMA Goodfella]

The Raquel and Reneau fights were both 2015. The Moraes fight was also 2015 where she was saved by the bell. Claudia can match Andrade's physicality too no one has been able to do that at SW. When Andrade has been matched physically she's struggled as her game revolves around out muscling and overwhelming opponents. Andrade defending td's because she's a fire hydrant is hyperbole at this stage, especially when we saw Raquel and Carmouche hit easy td's. Claudia has the best td's in the division and Andrade is a turtle off her back.

Well, a couple things I'd quibble with; first and foremost, you're talking about females that are 20 pounds heavier than her. Certainly they were able to take her to the mat at will. Just look how much better has Wilson Reis is at 125 whereas he was just out muscled at 135 > and that's just 10 pounds!

Look at Randy Couture in his 2nd stint as a HW against fighters like Josh Barnett and Rico Rodriguez. Neither one of those men were tipping the scale's at 265, but they were still able to control Randy and beat him to a pulp once they had him on the mat. Hell, the same is true with Demetrious Johnson, just see how DJ owns every flyweight now, whereas at 135 pounds he was getting out wrestled by fucking Brad Pickett lol. And of course Dominick Cruz took him down whenever he wanted.

Again, we are talking just 10 pounds. Even guys like a physically strong Okami feel it necessary to drop a division do to larger men.

Then of course there's the fact that she was just between 21 and 23 years old when she was getting close losses. She's only 25 years old now. You're going to see improvements each time out. Just work out easily Dustin Poirier gobbled up poor Max Holloway a few years ago in his UFC debut. I'm not saying Jessica is a Max Holloway, but Max was eaten alive once it hit the mat.

As for getting caught by Marion Reneau's and that triangle, we've seen how wicked but triangle is. No shame at all getting caught in that.

. And you mention Jessica almost getting choked out by Sara Moras, which brings up another fighter who started slow in Juliana Péna. A fighter who coincidently was tapped out by man other than Sara Moras.

Again, I think that Claudia gets the job done, but I see several path to victory by JA here.