UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

[BigDramaShow26]

Fiorot's tdd really does look elite out there. What happens if it does hit the ground though? Is it 100% over? Or can she survive until the next round? One thing we know for sure, Fiorot will have a huge edge on the feet. I like that Blanchfield is tough and will mix it up, but she has no shot at winning a striking battle with Fiorot.

This is a fantastic WMMA fight. I genuinely have no idea how.it will go. These two are better than Grasso most likely.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I am playing Chris at +230. Tavares is one of the best defensive grapplers in the division plus a better technical striker than Bruno.

Bruno has power but his grappling and bottom game has always been sus. Chris looked comfortable walking Tavares down too even on 1 leg his leg kick defense was just atrocious and he couldnt grapple Tavares. He will snatch that single and get Bruno down. Chris sub line should be joocy too but even if not if Shara can control you on the mat for several minutes Chris def can. Last hurrah IMO and will retire.

Luque sub prop might be worth a hit. I dont see him winning a 3 round striking fight against Buckley. Maybe he can catch him but he looked apprehensive to stand with RDA after the Neal KO.

Chidi should KO Rhys early. I guess the weight cut is a big factor to consider.

Landwehr as a dog is interesting IMO.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Emmers is better than Nate everywhere … Nate won’t come close to getting him down , and his striking is so sloppy he’s going to walk into emmers much straighter crisper punches - emmers with ease.

Emmers , Bruno , nursleton and arce should all be -500 territory

Manon is now almost +180 … she’s def the best value underdog pick …. If her cardio holds up - she’s the minute winner here , and her tdd is pretty damn good and her grappling ain’t bad either .

 

[Georges Hefner]

Emmers is better than Nate everywhere … Nate won’t come close to getting him down , and his striking is so sloppy he’s going to walk into emmers much straighter crisper punches - emmers with ease.

Emmers , Bruno , nursleton and arce should all be -500 territory

Manon is now almost +180 … she’s def the best value underdog pick …. If her cardio holds up - she’s the minute winner here , and her tdd is pretty damn good and her grappling ain’t bad either .

Sup man. I also cap Bruno at -500, but I’ve seen people saying otherwise. I’m not sure how to cap this fight. Because Bruno held his own against Shara Bullet, he landed huge shots on Shara and had good wrestling skills

 

[Georges Hefner]

There's an issue here: You just don't bet Bruno Silva as a favourite. He's more of an underdog type of play. You don't expect much from him and get him for cheap to surprise you. Guy's an action fighter, I'll give him that. Pushes a pace, has a great heart. But there's not a lot of sophistication anywhere, also not a good athlete. How is Brendan Allen knocking you down, man? Twice. He has functional striking, but it's not even his A game.
You get for cheap freaking Chris Weidman, man! Yeah he is shot, but is an actual athlete with "A" level of wrestling and grappling. And let's not forget the recent rejuvenation that some fighters have shown us after UFC kicked out USADA. OSP comes to mind as a fresh example.
Weidman is one of these guys who's game I'm willing to bet will be totally different on and off supplements. He's a strong wrestler with good grappling and control. Even the worst version of Weidman has good chances in this fight, but I'm willing to bet we'll see a refreshed Weidman. Bruno Silva is not a guy who's gonna pick Weidman from a far, kick his legs and be safe from takedowns. He's going right in Weidman's face and is either going to knock him out, or get wrestled to the ground and submitted. More often than not I'm betting the wrestler in such situations and odds from the bookies. It's just more reliable than a KO. And I can hedge with a Silva 1st round knockout if I'm not willing to get completely exposed in this spot.
P.S.Don't be surprised if you see Weidman looking like he got 10 years younger all of a sudden when in the cage.

Weidman was out of Usada after the leg break though. He got special treatment for the Tavares fight

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Weidman was out of Usada after the leg break though. He got special treatment for the Tavares fight

Didn't know that. He looked phisically good, but slow and fragile. Taking all this into consideration, I still think Silva's aggressive style probably will get him taken down at some point or controlled on the fence. I also think Silva is pretty hittable himself. Old shopworn vet vs. a considerable step down in competition is a tricky stuff to bet on. My rule of thumb is if the veteran has a significant technical edge in at least one aspect of the fight, and he can still bring the fight there, to trust him that he's going to weather the storm where he's lacking and get the W. Old dogs can still bite. But we'll see.

 

[Thesnake101]

Didn't know that. He looked phisically good, but slow and fragile. Taking all this into consideration, I still think Silva's aggressive style probably will get him taken down at some point or controlled on the fence. I also think Silva is pretty hittable himself. Old shopworn vet vs. a considerable step down in competition is a tricky stuff to bet on. My rule of thumb is if the veteran has a significant technical edge in at least one aspect of the fight, and he can still bring the fight there, to trust him that he's going to weather the storm where he's lacking and get the W. Old dogs can still bite. But we'll see.

I think Chris is at the point guys like Burkman, Pyle, Stout and such were - their bodies and chins are so fucked that they're sitting ducks for a clean shot to put them out.

Bruno's ML doesn't have value to me, but I'll be looking at his 1st round finish line

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Hard to argue that there is any value on a -270 favourite, but Weidman has not looked good in 10 years. He's been in so many wars, came off a serious injury and is old. You can say that now that USADA is out, Weidman will look better again (could be true), but same logic applies to Silva. Silva could come in with a new set of muscles on top of the old ones for all we know.
I'm not saying Silva is a must bet or anything, but as a parley piece I think he is perfectly fine at this price.

I will also add Silva R1 and possibly R2. Silva hits significantly harder than Tavares and Tavares had every oppertunity to get Weidman out of there.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm on Petroski, Nate the Train and Dudakova so far.

 

[sonhow]

Nate the train should ram Emmers bad unless he walks into big punches again. Definite possibility. Nate beaten better fighters than Emmers like Onama and Klein. Yet he lost to worse fighters like Erosa and Herbert. But as a dog am happy to take him.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Nate the train should ram Emmers bad unless he walks into big punches again. Definite possibility. Nate beaten better fighters than Emmers like Onama and Klein. Yet he lost to worse fighters like Erosa and Herbert. But as a dog am happy to take him.

I also think Emmers is a bit mentally weak and I think if you have that in you then you might get mentally impacted by a hick just walking you down constantly calling you a pussy.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Emmers is better than Nate everywhere … Nate won’t come close to getting him down , and his striking is so sloppy he’s going to walk into emmers much straighter crisper punches - emmers with ease.

Emmers , Bruno , nursleton and arce should all be -500 territory

Manon is now almost +180 … she’s def the best value underdog pick …. If her cardio holds up - she’s the minute winner here , and her tdd is pretty damn good and her grappling ain’t bad either .

Nate and Jack jenkins have very similar fighting styles. both throw calf kicks, use minimal movement and hold their guard up. I dont see a reason why nate cant beat emmers. His Ige fight was competitive, landed clean several times with solid combos. and i consider Ige to be better than Emmers. Ige would beat a guy like Jack, as we saw jack get exposed by Chipe. To me Emmers has always failed the test against equal competition. his lasts wins have been 1 mismatch fight , exposing a can crusher from russia. Against his equals he’s gone 0-3 in split decision like fights, he always seems to fall short. Nate beating Klein most recent is a better win between the two of them.

 

[Joonc]

I am playing Chris at +230. Tavares is one of the best defensive grapplers in the division plus a better technical striker than Bruno.

Bruno has power but his grappling and bottom game has always been sus. Chris looked comfortable walking Tavares down too even on 1 leg his leg kick defense was just atrocious and he couldnt grapple Tavares. He will snatch that single and get Bruno down. Chris sub line should be joocy too but even if not if Shara can control you on the mat for several minutes Chris def can. Last hurrah IMO and will retire.

Luque sub prop might be worth a hit. I dont see him winning a 3 round striking fight against Buckley. Maybe he can catch him but he looked apprehensive to stand with RDA after the Neal KO.

Chidi should KO Rhys early. I guess the weight cut is a big factor to consider.

Landwehr as a dog is interesting IMO.

Idk man, I'm convinced that Chris is deeply delusional and washed and really shouldnt be fighting. Think he said he's had like 30+ surgeries throughout his career, and seems like his leg snapping has completely pushed him over the hill. You are betting on the hollowed out husk of the man you think you are. Silva has looked weirdly washed himself after the Pereira fight, but he is still fairly young at 34 and dangerous enough to finish Tavares just a year ago who 30-27ed Chris 4 months after that. Bottom line is that I have negative faith in Chris and think even +230 is generous.

 

[sonhow]

Fiorot on paper might be nightmare matchup for Erin. Big, great defensive wrestler and better striker. Problem is that Erin has shown she belongs in that natural winner category. Meaning she tends to win despite struggling for example vs JJ and Santos. Also Andrade should have been tough but she rose her game up and ended up with her best performance to date. So it might be that Fiorot does all she can but she still wont get the win. Erin will find some way to get advantage or things will out of nowhere play in her favor.

But if I play someone with these odds it will be Manon for sure.

 

[Oblivian]

I legit can't remember last time Weidman looked decent. He looked back even in his victory vs. Ahkmedov. Tavares's line was a gift vs. him. Silva is more reckless and won't have a solid gameplan, but man, he should be able to light him up.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fiorot on paper might be nightmare matchup for Erin. Big, great defensive wrestler and better striker. Problem is that Erin has shown she belongs in that natural winner category. Meaning she tends to win despite struggling for example vs JJ and Santos. Also Andrade should have been tough but she rose her game up and ended up with her best performance to date. So it might be that Fiorot does all she can but she still wont get the win. Erin will find some way to get advantage or things will out of nowhere play in her favor.

But if I play someone with these odds it will be Manon for sure.

I never believe in plot armor defense. We've all seen fighters that were supposed to win but fell short.

takedowns
0 of 14 santos
0 of 4 jj

Santos was closer than people remember, and that was her off a lay off and getting sued by her coach.

Now we have a better defensive striker, with a bjj black belt, in better physical shape, and likely better cardio. And actively fighting in her prime.

Erin defense isn't there, she can only bull doze herself to a win for so long. 90% her success is just exposing how bad wmma submission defense is. This is how Ronda Rousey became a major star, it's always been that way. Its' like heavyweights and poor takedown defense, not knowing how to sprawl, so a guy like Almeida shows up and goes to the top.


I think this is where the plot takes a twist, and we get Manon vs Shevchenko late 2024. that seems more like the narrative that we all are hoping for.

 

[sonhow]

I never believe in plot armor defense. We've all seen fighters that were supposed to win but fell short.

takedowns
0 of 14 santos
0 of 4 jj

Santos was closer than people remember, and that was her off a lay off and getting sued by her coach.

Now we have a better defensive striker, with a bjj black belt, in better physical shape, and likely better cardio. And actively fighting in her prime.

Erin defense isn't there, she can only bull doze herself to a win for so long. 90% her success is just exposing how bad wmma submission defense is. This is how Ronda Rousey became a major star, it's always been that way. Its' like heavyweights and poor takedown defense, not knowing how to sprawl, so a guy like Almeida shows up and goes to the top.


I think this is where the plot takes a twist, and we get Manon vs Shevchenko late 2024. that seems more like the narrative that we all are hoping for.

Im thinking either Erin itd or Fiorot dec. Maybe play on both even. Right now I'm leaning Fiorot.
I cant agree with Manon vs Shev though unless it's a non title as Shev won't be champ haha.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Idk man, I'm convinced that Chris is deeply delusional and washed and really shouldnt be fighting. Think he said he's had like 30+ surgeries throughout his career, and seems like his leg snapping has completely pushed him over the hill. You are betting on the hollowed out husk of the man you think you are. Silva has looked weirdly washed himself after the Pereira fight, but he is still fairly young at 34 and dangerous enough to finish Tavares just a year ago who 30-27ed Chris 4 months after that. Bottom line is that I have negative faith in Chris and think even +230 is generous.

Chris is def shot and I agree Bruno is past it himself he still has his power but thats about it. As for Tavares/Bruno/Weidman styles make fights. Tavares is one of the best defensive grapplers in the division. Prime Yoel is the only guy I can remember who had significant success grappling him.

Weidman sub is +850 that's insane and I bet it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Nate the train should ram Emmers bad unless he walks into big punches again. Definite possibility. Nate beaten better fighters than Emmers like Onama and Klein. Yet he lost to worse fighters like Erosa and Herbert. But as a dog am happy to take him.

they both got beat by Erosa.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dumas is a decent pick. Underrated grappling, and that is his path to victory. Seen Ruziboev get mounted and out grappled, looks terrible off his back. Not a sure thing but i think it's 50/50