UFC FN 241: Barboza vs. Murphy

[Marko Atanasovik]

Sort of, difference is that Murphy also provides a grappling threat and Giga provided none. Edson's offense is neutralized when he has to fend off persistent grappling. Thugnasty showed that. It doesn't mean Edson still can't be dangerous, but the accumulated damage scenario you're talking about goes away and it becomes a situation where Edson needs one big moment.

You are completely wrong in comparison. Thug nasty tirelessly looks for a takedown, Murphy has been outwrestled against Gabriel Santos and Mr. Finland who scores 5 takedowns separately. Definetly he cannot put the full focus on it, he can try to mix it up, but he do nothing special overall with his wrestling.

 

[mkess101]

You are completely wrong in comparison. Thug nasty tirelessly looks for a takedown, Murphy has been outwrestled against Gabriel Santos and Mr. Finland who scores 5 takedowns separately. Definetly he cannot put the full focus on it, he can try to mix it up, but he do nothing special overall with his wrestling.

I know he's not as persistent as Mitchell, but he will definitely look to mix it up. That's the point. It gives Edson more to think about. Lerone is a million times the striker that Bryce or Makwan are. Edson won't have a pure striking match here. Nor will he have a fight where he only has to worry about defending TD's. He has multiple facets of the game he has to manage.

Doesn't mean he can't necessarily do it. But he's not gonna get a slow paced kickboxing match, Murphy will mix things up a lot to not allow Edson to get comfortable.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I wouldn't really count on Edson being head and shoulders above Murphy on the feet, he always had bigger deficiencies standing than Aldo ever did.

Beneil and Lee also showed that, and Edson did win one of those fights with just one big moment. Boils down to how durable you think Lerone is.

I watched Murphys fights, he’s ass. Struggles against everyone not names Ramos. The tape doesn't lie. True, Edsons weakness has always been his boxing

 

[mkess101]

I watched Murphys fights, he’s ass. Struggles against everyone not names Ramos. The tape doesn't lie. True, Edsons weakness has always been his boxing

He's "ass"? I like you dude but damn you working the serious hyperbole lately in crowning the Cuban dude that flamed out last week as a striking savant and now this. Just take it easy LOL. Murphy might not be a future champ but he damn sure isn't "ass".

 

[Georges Hefner]

He's "ass"? I like you dude but damn you working the serious hyperbole lately in crowning the Cuban dude that flamed out last week as a striking savant and now this. Just take it easy LOL. Murphy might not be a future champ but he damn sure isn't "ass".

The Cuban claimed to fight for the title in 2025 in recent interview. And that his grappling is almost as good as his striking. His exact words. I believed him. His body language seemed genuine. Obviously now we know the Cuban was bullshitting. It was my fault, I should’ve known not to believe anything without seeing evidence. I don’t have much experience gambling, but I’m a quick learner. I will only deal with facts from now on. I sincerely apologize if I bamboozled anyone. It was very unprofessional

 

[mkess101]

The Cuban claimed to fight for the title in 2025 in recent interview. And that his grappling is almost as good as his striking. His exact words. I believed him. His body language seemed genuine. Obviously now we know the Cuban was bullshitting. It was my fault, I should’ve known not to believe anything without seeing evidence. I don’t have much experience gambling, but I’m a quick learner. I will only deal with facts from now on. I sincerely apologize if I bamboozled anyone. It was very unprofessional

It's all good, my point is just that hyperbole generally isn't all that useful. Calling a good fighter like Lerone Murphy "ass"...cmon. Maybe Edson beats him. Maybe Murphy isn't as good as some think. But he's obviously a pretty solid fighter.

 

[Guld]

The facts is that only one prospect was victorious against a UFC veteran in 2024 post-USADA era. It was JDM who was one minute away from losing a decision to Burns. Every other prospect lost. Thats a fact, not opinion. I lost over $6,000 betting on prospects vs veterans. Maybe Murphy is different, but trends say otherwise. Last event was nothing but veterans whooping prospects.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

Edit: Woodson was the 2nd prospect to defeat a UFC veteran in 2024. But it was a robbery according to MMAdecisions

I'd have to go and look at the stats, but off the top of my head I can think of Arman beating Oliviera as an example of a prospect beating a vet.
You have a good point though, there has been a LOT of hype derailment and vets beating prospects lately. Specifically for prospects that are taking a significant bump up in the rankings/challenge.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'd have to go and look at the stats, but off the top of my head I can think of Arman beating Oliviera as an example of a prospect beating a vet.
You have a good point though, there has been a LOT of hype derailment and vets beating prospects lately. Specifically for prospects that are taking a significant bump up in the rankings/challenge.

Also depends on who you qualify as a prospect and vet. For example, Farid kept his undefeated record by outclassing Lapilus, someone who already had a UFC tenure under his belt 2 years prior to Farid making his pro debut. On the other hand Javid got derailed by Zahabi, who got signed to the UFC 1 year after Javid made his pro debut, but he also had less pro fights than Basharat did when they fought in spite of being 8 years older.

Hell Ceerod has the reputation of a vet who derails prospects despite being 26.

That being said, some of the more relevant prospect vs vet matchups from march and prior (not including april cuz we all remember them well, lol):

Poirier beats BSD
JDM beats Burns
Yan beats Yadong? (Song has 30 fights despite being young, 14 of them in the UFC and he got signed before Petr did)
Barber beats Chookagian
Phillips beats Munhoz
Roz beats Gaziev
Mokaev beats Perez
Erceg beats Schnell
Garry beats Neal (does it count? 7 year difference between the two)
Hermansson beats Pyfer
Johnson beats Maksum
Magny beats Malott
Bautista beats Simon (1 year gap but Simon has 25 fights and more high level experience)

If we include both Basharat fights then from january to march prospects just came out ahead with 8 wins to 7 losses, but again, it feels arbitrary to pick and choose which fights fit the criteria.

 

[B.Goetz]

Pereira Rodriguez should dominate Carnelossi, IMO. Took her at -175. Carnelossi is always a fade for me, and P-Rod is a legit prospect.

 

[Georges Hefner]

It's all good, my point is just that hyperbole generally isn't all that useful. Calling a good fighter like Lerone Murphy "ass"...cmon. Maybe Edson beats him. Maybe Murphy isn't as good as some think. But he's obviously a pretty solid fighter.

I learned my lesson. I have more respect for proven fighters now. Murphy is unproven and never went 5 rounds. The fighters he beat are unproven and he’s not dominating them. I used to be a believer, but Im now a skeptic when it comes to these prospects

 

[StewDogg11]

Arman is not a prospect. He’s a contender. Once you’re in the top 5, you are no longer a prospect. He was ranked #4.

I missed Kyler Philips and Uros Medic. I need to stop capping fights based on “UFC is setting this guy up” , that shit never works because you are paying a premium price for that narrative on the moneyline

I’ll raise you Ulberg over Menifield. Menifield was ranked #11 and Ulberg was unranked.

 

[mkess101]

I learned my lesson. I have more respect for proven fighters now. Murphy is unproven and never went 5 rounds. The fighters he beat are unproven and he’s not dominating them. I used to be a believer, but Im now a skeptic when it comes to these prospects

That's not unreasonable, but he's still undefeated and has some decent (nothing special, but solid) wins. He could lose to Edson and not be "ass".

I'd say "ass" should be reserved for the guys who come in and get smoked in 3 fights and clearly aren't UFC level. Not a guy who's never lost in 14 pro fights and who's 5-0-1 in the UFC with some wins over decent guys like Silva de Andrade and Culiibao.

 

[Georges Hefner]

That's not unreasonable, but he's still undefeated and has some decent (nothing special, but solid) wins. He could lose to Edson and not be "ass".

I'd say "ass" should be reserved for the guys who come in and get smoked in 3 fights and clearly aren't UFC level. Not a guy who's never lost in 14 pro fights and who's 5-0-1 in the UFC with some wins over decent guys like Silva de Andrade and Culiibao.

My apologies. He looked like ass against Tukhugov and Santos. You can argue he lost both of those fights. Also looked bad against Makwan. He doesn’t do well in the 1st round. A slow starter. His opponents fade and he takes over. I think that’s a fair assessment.

 

[mkess101]

My apologies. He looked like ass against Tukhugov and Santos. You can argue he lost both of those fights. Also looked bad against Makwan. He doesn’t do well in the 1st round. A slow starter. His opponents fade and he takes over. I think that’s a fair assessment.

I agree somewhat. Makwan ALWAYS looks good for a few minutes then folds, no matter the opponent.

I'd say though that since Lerone seems to take over as fights go on, this being 5 rounds may well be an advantage for him. As opposed to Sadiq who had Edson in massive trouble in rd 1 but then faded badly after blowing his wad, Murphy should ramp up as the fight goes on.

 

[sonhow]

I agree somewhat. Makwan ALWAYS looks good for a few minutes then folds, no matter the opponent.

I'd say though that since Lerone seems to take over as fights go on, this being 5 rounds may well be an advantage for him. As opposed to Sadiq who had Edson in massive trouble in rd 1 but then faded badly after blowing his wad, Murphy should ramp up as the fight goes on.

Id like to add about Makwan that he has taken down every ufc opponent thus far including Allen,Edson and Burgos. Hes good when hes fresh its just that he hasnt trained in suitable gym for past 5 years or so. Basically since he left the Irish gym.

 

[EndlessCritic]

has there ever been a bigger lock on paper than yanez? jesus christ this feels like such a trap.

 

[guidi]

has there ever been a bigger lock on paper than yanez? jesus christ this feels like such a trap.

I was thinking the same thing, but honestly this seems like a fight tailor made for Yanez to get back on the right track with a knockout. This is a massive step back in opposition after Font and Martinez and he seems to have the edge everywhere, his KO line at almost even -110 is definitely worth a play

 

[sonhow]

has there ever been a bigger lock on paper than yanez? jesus christ this feels like such a trap.

If Yanez is mentally fragile he just might not have it in him to beat anyone.
But other than that he boxes this guy up.

 

[manopino]

I will pass on Barboza pre-fight. There is a post-USADA variable that needs to be answered first. It’s hard to cap the fight without knowing this. I recommend everyone to live bet him instead. If I do live bet, I will post it on the PBP thread as soon as I bet. I’ve always been transparent with my live bets. I never, not once had to claim a live bet after the outcome. I only lost 2 live bets this year. $50 Vera and $100 Xionan. I have won 7 live bets. I think live bets are the way to go for these veterans vs prospect matchups.

My only pre-bet for this event is Brahimaj on the moneyline. I want to see how Brahimaj physically looks at weigh-in after layoff. There is lots of speculation from the public regarding his “career ending” injury but I want to see how he looks. Can he make weight, does he look soft, is his mentality the same, etc. Personally, I think he’s fine and it’s all bullshit. But I don’t operate based on assumptions. I operate based on facts. Georges Hefner is not the same guy from last week. This is a Georges Hefner 2.0.

Stylistically, I am giving a healthy Brahimaj a moderately high chance of victory against an unproven opponent with 1 round cardio. So anywhere between 4-8 units. My unit size is $100. I’m going to use unit sizes from now on so everyone has a better understanding of my staking structure. I think it’s more professional and tells a deeper story than a number with a dollar sign. I used unit sizes in UFC 300 and it made risk management/staking a lot easier. Not sure why I stopped.

I see lots of recreational bettors picking Gorimbo, even saying there is value. It’s the same “experts” from YouTube and Reddit. So 89% Tapology and EVERYONE on YouTube/Reddit is taking Gorimbo. 80% of bets are on Gorimbo. But the books are saying 58%? So you’re getting, “on paper” roughly anywhere between 20-30% edge by betting on Gorimbo? There's an old saying in Tennessee. I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, you can't get fooled

Damn If I have a look at my bets, I’m winning big on the ufc main events and losing so much on ufc fight nights.
I feel everyone has a differente edge in this game, and it would make more sense to just increase the bet size where u got the edge.

 

[2bet]

Here is some info that I got through various videos of Abus' Youtube Channel and instagram stories:

Abus was preparing in Dagestan during Ramadan, he got invited by Khabib before but it never fit in his schedule until now.

He did get back to Germany earlier as planned due to the training in Dagestan being too laid back (due to Ramadan), he wanted more intense training for his preparation.

He got a nose operation so he can breath better, he arguably only got 60% oxygen through his nose before and was breathing through his mouth a lot.

Since his operation he sleeps better than ever, he feels way more recovered from his sleep now.

He did not do any sparring the last couple of weeks (due to his nose operation), he only started sparring after his arrival in the US.

He is very unhappy with his performance in his last two UFC fights and is adamant on retiring in case he loses his upcoming fight.