Thoughts and picks?
When did you pull those odds? Chimaev has been favored for awhile, you have the opening lines up there I think? The line has basically flipped, Chimaev around -160 now.
I like Tybura at current price over Hardy. Tybura has gone super wrestling heavy lately and Hardy's grappling is still rudimentary. I don't think he'll have answers, and I think Tybura saps his gas tank very quickly. If Hardy wins, it's rd 1 KO imo.
Great card. Better than 255 and 256
Biggest bet of the year on Leon. Experience, level of competition, legitimate top 4 guy fighting a rookie. That rookie looks the goods but we are talking about +165 here on top 4 talent. Crazy
Even if you line it as a pick em which is assuming alot for Chimaev is big value on Leon. Given what we know i think should be -125 to -150. If im wrong, so be it, the kids the next Jones. Theres just too much value based on what we know. Everything else on chimaev is speculation
The wrestling worries me. The brits can't wrestle even if Leon has good wrestling by their standardsYeah Edwards as a dog is definitely the play for me. Chimaev obviously looked great so far, but his only real win so far is a 17 second fight against GM3 (nice finish but such a short fight against maybe a fringe top 30 MW doesn't really tell us a huge amount).
Edwards is a huge step up, his inactivity compared to Chimaevs recent 3 fights could be iffy, but also he's at the age where he also could have improved even more in that time. He's a legit top 5 WW so it'd a huge step up in competition -
The size difference could definitely factor in too, but I think the level of competition both have faced and how they've looked I'm more than happy to be on Edwards as a dog. It's such a huge step up in competition and with Edwards potentially not even in his prime yet I can't bet an unproven favourite against a legit title contender - even if he loses at these odds or even better I'm probably fine with it, at worst I'd just see it as proof that Chimaev is legit a special talent.
I've seen quite a few people saying Leon will be the biggest bet of their life, I think its an interesting conversation in terms of what people are looking for to place the biggest bet of their life. Myself for example I have 5u on Leon as I see it as the clear 'value' side. For all reasons mentioned above and some. But I can't bet any further because there's simply to much unknown about khazmat, he could be an absolute beast. I wouldn't be shocked if khazmat wins but regardless of outcome I will feel i was on the right side with the top 5 contender with + money against unknown commodity. My personal criteria for biggest bet of my life is i like more of a "sure thing" for example my biggest bet of my life was chuck vs tito 3 I put a third of my bankroll 33u on tito. I watched a lot of footage before hand and clearly seen that chucks brain was just not firing. Anywho I guess my point is what is your criteria for biggest bet of your life? Would you rather have a better betting number with less certainty of winning? Or crappy betting number but good certainty of winning? For example just some loose numbers and win rate percentage, is obviously based on what you perceive the win percentage to be not what it actually is
Fighter A +200 with 80% win rate
Fighter B -300 with 98% win rate
Sorry for long post just bored and thinking
i think the people who keep saying there's a lot of unknowns about chimaev haven't seen his fights before the UFC. He has a gas tank. He has pretty good wrestling. His stand up is pretty good.
I'm avoiding this fight either way, too many unknown variables regarding Leon as well. Maybe he got even better this past year like Ortega did, or maybe ring rust will be a factor.
Biggest bet of my life was Floyd over Conor, as im sure many people will say the same. That will never happen again getting 1.34 odds for something that should have been 1.01I've seen quite a few people saying Leon will be the biggest bet of their life, I think its an interesting conversation in terms of what people are looking for to place the biggest bet of their life. Myself for example I have 5u on Leon as I see it as the clear 'value' side. For all reasons mentioned above and some. But I can't bet any further because there's simply to much unknown about khazmat, he could be an absolute beast. I wouldn't be shocked if khazmat wins but regardless of outcome I will feel i was on the right side with the top 5 contender with + money against unknown commodity. My personal criteria for biggest bet of my life is i like more of a "sure thing" for example my biggest bet of my life was chuck vs tito 3 I put a third of my bankroll 33u on tito. I watched a lot of footage before hand and clearly seen that chucks brain was just not firing. Anywho I guess my point is what is your criteria for biggest bet of your life? Would you rather have a better betting number with less certainty of winning? Or crappy betting number but good certainty of winning? For example just some loose numbers and win rate percentage, is obviously based on what you perceive the win percentage to be not what it actually is
Fighter A +200 with 80% win rate
Fighter B -300 with 98% win rate
Sorry for long post just bored and thinking