UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai

[NewLockGuy]

Anyone else think Araujo gets rid of Rosa? "Vivi" does have an 88% finishing rate, with only one decision win. I can see her doing it with her hands or a sub so I wouldn't get too greedy prop wise but ITD might be a good bet.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Anyone else think Araujo gets rid of Rosa? "Vivi" does have an 88% finishing rate, with only one decision win. I can see her doing it with her hands or a sub so I wouldn't get too greedy prop wise but ITD might be a good bet.

Rosa has finished 5 of her last 6 wins though. I’m on Rosa via sub or decision.

 

[Broe.]

hunter azure over 0.5 takedowns x 1.57 is really easy money!

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Romanov looking thick, solid and tight. Confidence increase.

 

[2020Tracked]

Romanov looking thick, solid and tight. Confidence increase.

He really doesn't

 

[loller90278]

tempted to bet Under 1.5R for Pereira/Imadaev after watching the face offs earlier today. Somebody talk me out of it!

 

[svmr_db]

tempted to bet Under 1.5R for Pereira/Imadaev after watching the face offs earlier today. Somebody talk me out of it!

Pereira is a wild man and the fight could end any possible way and nobody would be surprised. I hope the weigh in incident makes him want to dial it in and focus on winning rather than entertaining though.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

He really doesn't

He really does compared to how he looked just a couple years ago. And as someone who was that big before, it would be easy for him to put it back on. Not sure why you’re trying to argue he doesn’t look in better shape these days.

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[Vitor Apologist]

This card is full of unreliable fighters who could throw away the fight any minute, I’m liking a lot of KO’s and finishes tho

 

[2020Tracked]

He really does compared to how he looked just a couple years ago. And as someone who was that big before, it would be easy for him to put it back on. Not sure why you’re trying to argue he doesn’t look in better shape these days.

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I didn't argue that he doesn't look better than before. I argued that he doesn't look solid or tight.. He definitely does look thick though

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

I didn't argue that he doesn't look better than before. I argued that he doesn't look solid or tight.. He definitely does look thick though

Lmao. Fair enough. I still think he’s taking his conditioning and diet more seriously these days.

You on Lima though?

 

[Xuh]

@Xuh you have any leans on DLR/Araujo or Eubanks/Rosa?

Eubanks/Rosa off now so don't have to worry about that (phew).

DLR/Araujo I like DLR at her price, Araujo is wild and doesn't manage her energy (resulting in slowing down a lot & often) & DLR has a chain wrestling style that nobody has really tested out on Araujo yet and could give her problems. DLR isn't going to look to stand and bang (she'll be getting owned there) and if Araujo is on the bottom I suspect she might get stuck there (she was on the bottom for a while vs Davis after a scramble and didn't do anything except suck wind). Especially if she's gassing (she's also coming back from COVID but I'm not counting on that having an effect or anything). I remembered DLR as having got beat up pretty bad vs Lee but on rewatch it wasn't as bad as I thought and she was able to get more TDs than I thought, so I think she can get them vs Araujo too especially going into rd2/rd3.

Oh and DLR did this camp at Elevation, and left her loser manlet husband and her kid behind. All focus.

Araujo isn't a bad grappler herself though and is a lot more explosive/athletic/speedy than DLR who is a bit slow (physically and mentally) plus she'll crack her hard on the feet of course.

 

[ill800]

Eubanks/Rosa off now so don't have to worry about that (phew).

DLR/Araujo I like DLR at her price, Araujo is wild and doesn't manage her energy (resulting in slowing down a lot & often) & DLR has a chain wrestling style that nobody has really tested out on Araujo yet and could give her problems. DLR isn't going to look to stand and bang (she'll be getting owned there) and if Araujo is on the bottom I suspect she might get stuck there (she was on the bottom for a while vs Davis after a scramble and didn't do anything except suck wind). Especially if she's gassing (she's also coming back from COVID but I'm not counting on that having an effect or anything). I remembered DLR as having got beat up pretty bad vs Lee but on rewatch it wasn't as bad as I thought and she was able to get more TDs than I thought, so I think she can get them vs Araujo too especially going into rd2/rd3.

Oh and DLR did this camp at Elevation, and left her loser manlet husband and her kid behind. All focus.

Araujo isn't a bad grappler herself though and is a lot more explosive/athletic/speedy than DLR who is a bit slow (physically and mentally) plus she'll crack her hard on the feet of course.

de la Rosa is going to have to close distance to attempt takedowns on vivi. Araujo is going to be in and out of range constantly against the much slower de la Rosa.

Andrea lee doesn’t exactly have the best takedown defense and araujo may be a better grappler than de la Rosa. Her tdd is pretty good. Yea it’s concerning that she accepted bottom and really didn’t do much of anything against davis

also previously mention her Amanda Ribas style late round cardio dumps are a concern. De la Rosa doesn’t exactly have stellar cardio either though. And she was hurt by a jab from Andrea lee.

thought this was priced pretty accurately. Don’t feel like there’s a lot of value on either side. If araujo didn’t slow down midway through every round she’d probably be -300

 

[BigSteve]

Rosa has finished 5 of her last 6 wins though. I’m on Rosa via sub or decision.

More chance of Viviane KOing Rosa with her horrible striking defence than Rosa has to Submit Viviane who is a black blet, has 100% takedown defence and has never been subbed, in my opinion. Rosa got her face battered by Andrea Lee of all people and everyone she subbed is a scrub.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

More chance of Viviane KOing Rosa with her horrible striking defence than Rosa has to Submit Viviane who is a black blet, has 100% takedown defence and has never been subbed, in my opinion. Rosa got her face battered by Andrea Lee of all people and everyone she subbed is a scrub.

I’m not trying to talk shit here but:

Last week you played Whitmire/Viana by Dec In two plays... I played Viana by sub and the under.

A couple events before that you played $1100 on JoJo Calderwood. I played Maia ML and sub. I’m just feeling more finishes in WMMA lately and my picks have been hitting so I’m going to keep riding

 

[edole]

What do we think about Kelleher/Natividad?

Anyone on Natividad?

 

[BigSteve]

I’m not trying to talk shit here but:

Last week you played Whitmire/Viana by Dec In two plays... I played Viana by sub and the under.

A couple events before that you played $1100 on JoJo Calderwood. I played Maia ML and sub. I’m just feeling more finishes in WMMA lately and my picks have been hitting so I’m going to keep riding

Sounds like you are haha bringing up my most regretful play. I ripped into my self on the bets forum more than you could. Made it night before because I was greedy and intoxicated and wanted more cash, frustrated at all my plays pulling out and being cancled. Big turning point for me because I broke all my rules and had the biggest loss I ever had. Week after I had my biggest ever win but not important.

Anyway I cashed out that main play, like I said I would when I posted it. I jumped at the 1.62 odds of a womens fight going to DEC, but remembering its Womens etc i cashed it out. The second play I let it ride was a props multy big deal not even half a unit.

Anyway you let it ride man, dosent mean it will or will not hit. If it does I will cop it, stranger things have happened. I am just going off my research and assessment.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Sounds like you are haha bringing up my most regretful play. I ripped into my self on the bets forum more than you could. Made it night before because I was greedy and intoxicated and wanted more cash, frustrated at all my plays pulling out and being cancled. Big turning point for me because I broke all my rules and had the biggest loss I ever had. Week after I had my biggest ever win but not important.

Anyway I cashed out that main play, like I said I would when I posted it. I jumped at the 1.62 odds of a womens fight going to DEC, but remembering its Womens etc i cashed it out. The second play I let it ride was a props multy big deal not even half a unit.

Anyway you let it ride man, dosent mean it will or will not hit. If it does I will cop it, stranger things have happened. I am just going off my research and assessment.

I appreciate you not taking it the wrong way because I’m not trying to imply I fade your WMMA picks in any way whatsoever. I just have a weird memory of remembering certain people’s bets (people that I respect on here BTW if you catch my drift). And I do remember you saying you were most likely going to cash out of that bet bet but I wasn’t sure if you ended up doing it.

Obviously I hope I’m right again but I’ll also say you were right if I’m wrong. No skin off my back to admit my read was off.

 

[BigSteve]

I appreciate you not taking it the wrong way because I’m not trying to imply I fade your WMMA picks in any way whatsoever. I just have a weird memory of remembering certain people’s bets (people that I respect on here BTW if you catch my drift). And I do remember saying you were most likely going to cash out of that bet bet but I wasn’t sure if you ended up doing it.

Obviously I hope I’m right again but I’ll also say you were right if I’m wrong. No skin off my back to admit my read was off.

thats alright trust me I will never forget that memory haha. I become so emotionless to my wins and losses, the bet still bugss me. That fight was a pass untill 5 hours before the event, and right before it started I had this bad feeling in my gut an armbar was coming just because JoJo was likely to catch a kick like she always does, and she has been subbed from guard before. I was at my friends chatting and hanging out so I didnt react quick enough to hedge etc.

My read here is that DLR can win a decision, through wrestling. I hedged it with that, so if she gets another guard sub I have again paid my price the same way hahah. But this one is not a last minute drunk bet so I am more confident and if I lose I lose my read was wrong and it wont bother me too much.