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Hammering agapova by stab +425
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
- Thread starter BigSteve
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You two are syncing up like two women living together. Hahah!
No, you both have reps for being sharp MMA bettors. It's no surprise when people concur.
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I already live with 2 women, a wife and daughter. 3 if you count our dog. Sherdog is supposed to be my escape to manly shit, bro!!
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By stab? She bringing her blade?
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Mazo will quit after one good puncture wound.
She could fight through a slice but a stab will make her quit. #Mentallyweak
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Mazo is slow and just throws decent kicks for WMMA. Agapova is wild and has decent enough hands. I can see her getting Mazo out of there in the first round. She's worth the play at dog odds. Mazo really is lower level WMMA caliber. It wasnt long ago Agapova was a -1100 in a fight.
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Yeah, and then she lost to a negative record bum. Agapova could be a +600 dog against a toddler and I still would hesitate to take her after that Dada 5000 shit she pulled against Dobson.
Anyone think Colares by decision might be worth a stab? Was just looking at Gutierrez and his TDD isn't exactly the best, so I could see someone like Felipe burning the clock and doing just enough to win 2 rounds.
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6.25% chance of hitting. Sounds about right to me. Thats 1 out of 16 fights.
I don´t think the GnP is very likely here, as Dern is one of those who will go for the sub as soon as she gets the chance to do so. In a striking match it may be possible. I think the odds are about right to me. If you play this prop you likely need to at least cap it around +1000 or so.
Marina is also very tough, its hard to see her being that hurt on the feet.
Personally I really like her -120 sub/dec prop over her ML. The risk is worth it compared to the ML imo.
D
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I honest to God didn't see it lol, let me go and read it
Edit: well we're both on the same page. The chance of her landing something standing is incredibly small, but when you have a grappler the caliber of Dern, she can simply put Marina in positions that she can't get out of. And if the sub isn't there, she'll just GnP her, so +1400 is pretty nuts.
Kind of like Andrade last week. He doesn't get subs often, but if he had gotten that takedown he attempted before the KO, the discrepancy on the ground would've been so huge that him via sub @ +2000 was wide.
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i'll never bet on Agapova again after that performance against dobson... I got Moroz but yeah wouldn't be suprised if we seen Agapova stab her in the first for the tko, but Moroz ITD round 2/3 imo.
Also some numbers to think about between Corales/Gutierrez
I'll start with Chris, he's a striker (and a nice one at that) this is his PTV against Felipe. (Felipe has been dropped twice in his last 2, but he's tough so could make it to decision or we could see the chin finally crack here) Anyways, the stats that stick out to me here are Chris's TDD (73%) and SsLPM (4.30) and Str Def (59%), I am confident he'll be able to avoid getting put on his back and give us a rather 1 sided beat down of Corales, either late finish or a UD to Chris due to his striking advantage, ability to keep it on the feet. His last Sub lost was also to Raoni Baceolos whos an absolute beast of a grappler, I don't put Colares in that same boat.
Reasons why I don't want to back Corales is he is too hittable and his volume is quite low (striking and td wise), he absorbs averagly around 4.22 SsAPM which is terrible (but he is durable), he only lands half of that on average at an output of 2.15 SsLPM which tells me he's not winning the decision here and I don't think he can hurt Chris on the feet, and to top it off Corales doesn't have the best take downs, only averaging 2 per fight and has a 23% TD Acc. He will be looking to get the fight to the ground, and if he can't get it there in the first, I think he'll fade quicker than Chris (chris has shown better cardio to me) and be in for a rough night.
based on statistics, this is all Chris, if your unsure on a winner, FGTD is a pretty viable bet imo.
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thoughts on my round robin
Phillip Hawes @1.29
Sabina Mazo @1.56
Matheus Nicolau @1.48
Steve Garcia @1.30
Alexander Romanov @1.19
Lupita Godinez @1.42
Chris Gutierrez @1.36
Mackenzie Dern @1.58
$1 per bet - $247 total bet - $1,052.12 potential ROI
p.s don't chase me, i'm the type of cat that loses $$ on Walt Harris when he fought Alistar Overeem..that's the betting luck I have lmao.
Phillip Hawes @1.29
Sabina Mazo @1.56
Matheus Nicolau @1.48
Steve Garcia @1.30
Alexander Romanov @1.19
Lupita Godinez @1.42
Chris Gutierrez @1.36
Mackenzie Dern @1.58
$1 per bet - $247 total bet - $1,052.12 potential ROI
p.s don't chase me, i'm the type of cat that loses $$ on Walt Harris when he fought Alistar Overeem..that's the betting luck I have lmao.
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I actually would put it around 10% but it kinda gets into random conjecture when you start trying to discern between a 6% chance and a 10% chance imo.
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Yep its very hard for most humans to differentiate between such low percentages and put it into perspective. The limits on these kind of props are small, so the profit you lose out on is very minor. I think time and effort can be better spent, or it could be an idea to find a better way to cap a fight.
If one is to do props like these they need to be tracked, as it´d be very easy to think we´re profitable when we´re not if we hit some of these props. And then comes staking strategy that would need to be done well for these props, as if you bet too much on one prop but too little on another, thats another issue.
Personally i´d want a higher percentage in order to play these props, 15-20% is much easier to understand imo, unless you rely on stats a lot where you can reliably use them to just bet after comparing to the odds.
I´m not saying this is a bad prop, it may have a ton of value. But personally I think the odds are about right or at least hard to cap the value so i´d pass on it. I´ve yet to see anyone post longterm stats where they are profiting nicely on these kind of props. I like these big props more for round hedges or for specific outcomes you´re worried about and want to hedge. I.e round 1 sub, or a bet in round 3 or round 4 etc.
One thing to account for aswell is when we make our own percentages it may be an idea to maybe cut around 5% so we got some room for error, however at such tiny margins that would be wrong. So it may be as simple as we better be right with these odds, or we lose longterm. Very hard to cap such small percentages. If you or anyone else profit with these props longterm, then that is very impressive.
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I probably wouldn’t pay -250 for guit vs any ufc fighter
anyone could win a decision against him with his low volume
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Guiterrez SsLPM stat wise is twice as high as corales. Doubt Corales outpoints him striking.
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Yeah, I think I'll either stick to a FGTD on this one, or a little on Colares if his line gets any wider.
D
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I haven't really read through this thread, so I apologize if this has been discussed, but is anyone here confidently on Hawes @ -310?
After rewatching tape on him, I am not impressed whatsoever.
His cardio is lackluster and he resorts to using his wrestling in rounds 2/3 to win almost every fight.
He's going to have a striking and reach advantage, but when he gasses, and he will gas, he's not going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Winn after 7 minutes or so.
Winn is going to make this ugly and rather boring like most of his fights, but I really think he can grind out a decision here.
After rewatching tape on him, I am not impressed whatsoever.
His cardio is lackluster and he resorts to using his wrestling in rounds 2/3 to win almost every fight.
He's going to have a striking and reach advantage, but when he gasses, and he will gas, he's not going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Winn after 7 minutes or so.
Winn is going to make this ugly and rather boring like most of his fights, but I really think he can grind out a decision here.
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the overs seem very generously priced to me, it's going to be a sloppy fight down the stretch by both sides winn's cardio is nothing special either he gasses too
D
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Oh Winn gasses for sure too.
But the thing is, even when Winn is gassed, he'll be able to secure sloppy TD's.
It's going to basically turn into a wrestling match in rounds 2/3, and I'll take the more credentialed wrestler anyday.
Shooting for TD's that you've drilled thousands of times when you're gassed is far easier than defending them.
Edit: I'm not supremely confident in this play, I just think Hawes being -330 is pretty crazy.
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