UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II | Page 58

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 3, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    36,389
    Likes Received:
    3,981
    Location:
    Merica
    To me, variance would be similar since -400 bets have high swings as well on losses. In the very short term the favorite bettor would yield better results more often, but it should be the same long term.
     
    #1141
  2. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    32,329
    Likes Received:
    10,389
    Location:
    philly
    i can't resist edgar -120, i know i should probably wait more, but i see just huge value and i'd be mad at myself if it does go back the other way.

    adding to edgar.

    also taking some of these +350ish lines on polo and christensen. the lines are just off. same deal here. they could end up going a little higher with reduced juice.. but they could also go back the other way and i like the price just fine.
     
    #1142
    cagebrain, trucido, t6p and 1 other person like this.
  3. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    32,329
    Likes Received:
    10,389
    Location:
    philly
    lol wtf. casey nsc -540. yet their individual ITD lines are +375 and +483

    i'm on casey here and i tried to hit that -147, but -540!? ok, i'm considering JAG nsc at these absurdly elevated numbers (just considering...)
     
    #1143
    TimCoreCombat and Joseph Budden like this.
  4. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,173
    Likes Received:
    844
    Location:
    up A mountain in Wales
    on the contrary we need more talk about bankroll management, anyone who has been following these threads for years should realise it's gone down the shitter when it comes to people being sensible with their money, and it sets a dangerous precedent with a lot of new people coming into the threads and potentially tailing others and such. we could move it to another thread but It needs to be seen in the big event threads like these
     
    #1144
  5. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

    Itsnotthatseriousmydude
    Joined:
    May 5, 2017
    Messages:
    8
    Likes Received:
    4
    I tend to agree. If Maia grabs a hold of mas and pushes him into the fence it can absolutely look like the previous fights. But I said it with the jj/Andrade fight and I'll say it again. The result of the previous fights don't outweigh the techniques and factors that lead to that result. Condit got subbed quick but condit was fighting after saying multiple times he wanted to retire. His heart wasn't in it. Brown was doomed from the word go. He's a go that builds momentum like a snowball but he does it by hanging out in clinch range. Against a guy like Maia who's Judo/wrestling/ day one bjj self defense takedown game is absurdly good, it's a recipe for disaster. Of course, again, it's possible for Maia to dummy mas if he gets him down, I just don't see mas giving up the takedowns as easily as those guys.
     
    #1145
  6. TheOneTrueKing White Belt

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    145
    Likes Received:
    50
    this is true. hedging your bet with a -ev play to lock in a profit will lower long term roi. they are two separate bets therefore adding a hedge will increase your roi if it is a +ev play or reduce it if it is a -ev play. assuming the bets ev is greater than your long term roi
     
    #1146
  7. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    32,329
    Likes Received:
    10,389
    Location:
    philly
    #1147
    Orion, Shoulder and TimCoreCombat like this.
  8. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,173
    Likes Received:
    844
    Location:
    up A mountain in Wales
    it's such a blanket statement though, I get what your saying and it may be true for a lot of people in here, but for a lot of people ROI is very unreliable over the long term unless your betting style is extremely consistent while focusing on a limited betting strategy.
    and your still not taking into account how harder it is to make a bigger ROI with a larger bank and stake size.
     
    #1148
  9. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,173
    Likes Received:
    844
    Location:
    up A mountain in Wales
    100% disagree man,

    we can take it in their later but you know as well as I do how easily people can be influenced. especially when you have some people charging a considerable amount of money for their picks, whilst constantly making 5-20u bets or more in between losing their entire bank, whilst having a lot of influence in here... it's downright fucking dangerous for a lot of people. just skim through any random event thread this year and look at the amount of people making ridiculous bets, that in the long run will likely wreck their bankroll...

    more talk is needed in the big threads like these to make sure people realise the potential pitfalls of betting.
     
    #1149
    NinjaCat456 and TheOneTrueKing like this.
  10. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    32,329
    Likes Received:
    10,389
    Location:
    philly
    in a better time & place, imo.
     
    #1150
    TimCoreCombat likes this.
  11. Ukram Silver Belt

    Ukram
    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Messages:
    13,236
    Likes Received:
    3,009
    Stipe

    -been a champ a long time
    -hard match up for anyone
    -lots more confidence in his technique and style
    -everyone's a big challenge @ hw div
    -everyone hits hard @ hw so only takes one to the button
    -only worries about being the champ nothing else
    -does not mind where the fight goes
    -fav fighter is crocop
    -not really willing to discuss other fighters, only worried about jds for now but wont turn down any hw


    JJ

    -excited to be here and ready
    -staying fresh and fast above the weight cut
    -had a good camp
    -ready and confident
    -ATT camp was different and had a good chance to work with good female fighters
    -wants to goto 125 but only after 1-2 more fights in 2017
    -wants to fight again in the summer but its not going to be easy
    ***********tells a better who has put 500 euros on her, he can relax cos she is winning*************
    -likes to train ji jitsu, wants to enter some ji jitsu competitions later on in the year.

    off topic but JJ was sporting a slight bruise in-between her eyebrows



    Eddie Alvarez interview

    -feeling great, good weight cut and full on energy
    -loss on Conor, bitter pill to swallow on that loss but has learned from it
    -Discusses his moment about losing on the big show, how he had to get it over with to get better
    -can now do things he could not do before the loss, can throw strikes that he would usually not
    -fighting is fun again


    -bouncing back harder from last loss
    -motivation is still there to fight
    -guys that push forward will suffer since it brings out the pressure in himself
    -wants to get completely 'lost' and be himself in the cage since it creates magic
    -Got too nervous and never settled in the Conor fight
    -discusses how one moment and one mistake can cost you the fight

    (lots of questions about his Conor loss, eddie had to repeat several times its in the past and forgotten....followed by a question about his loss.......




    -Knows Stripe has that extra grit to win
    -Feels good, wants to impose his own goal
    -Believes he will do even better as the new champion, more mature, better experience and can enjoy better moments.
    -interested in hw boxing, just a dream fight for now- not worried about take downs or ji jitsu.
    -suggest he is the fastest hw fighter in the div
     
    #1151
  12. lawmills2006 Green Belt

    lawmills2006
    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2009
    Messages:
    1,450
    Likes Received:
    360
    Location:
    Haggisland
    Cejudo out, damn, wanted to LB the shit out of that fight.

    Locked 1u Knight, feel hes going to do good.
     
    #1152
  13. Ukram Silver Belt

    Ukram
    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Messages:
    13,236
    Likes Received:
    3,009
    http://www.sherdog.com/news/article...atchup-Analysis-Jedrzejczyk-vs-Andrade-121253

    Final Word

    This is an exciting matchup in the best women’s division in the sport. Though Jedrzejczyk has not given anyone reason to bet against her, the odds are surprisingly close. Depending on where you look, Jedrzejczyk is the favorite anywhere between -162 to -195, while Andrade is in the +130 to +150 underdog range. Andrade’s superior power and explosiveness make for an intriguing contrast to Jedrzejczyk’s superior technical application. They both have ways to win, and no matter what happens, this fight promises to bring fireworks.

    Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
     
    #1153
  14. NewcastleTom Purple Belt

    NewcastleTom
    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2008
    Messages:
    2,091
    Likes Received:
    162
    I'll try although I feel the same way about that fight. What stops me from betting a ton on a fight I like is I envision that THIS fight will be the robbery decision of the year. I don't want to have a lot of money on a fight and there will be a dominant round for my fighter scored 10-9 and a much closer round given 10-8 for the other fighter. Or just a bad decision, I don't want to be sitting there waiting for the cards thinking I won and hear a split decision....
     
    #1154
    NinjaCat456 and trucido like this.
  15. ChoKuRei Orange Belt

    ChoKuRei
    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    328
    Likes Received:
    454
    Location:
    Colorado
    Been going back and forth on some things...

    Decided to scrap betting on maia/Mas

    I know some of you are on andrade here, but i feel most confident in picking Joanna, and frankie edgar. Those are the two i feel most confident in. Kinda wanna play them in a two man parlay, might just lay the juice on frankie..but eddie alvarez at Even odds this morning made me salivate.... Any thoughts?
     
    #1155
    ill800 likes this.
  16. Sham5916910 Red Belt

    Sham5916910
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    9,968
    Likes Received:
    6,969
    How do you think eddie wins?
     
    #1156
  17. TheKingOwl White Belt

    TheKingOwl
    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2016
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    11
    [​IMG]
    R1: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 10-9)
    R2: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 20-18)
    R3: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 30-27)
    R4: Joanna 10-9 (Andrade 39-37)
    R5: Joanna 10-8 (DRAW 47-47)
     
    #1157
    walljohn likes this.
  18. ChoKuRei Orange Belt

    ChoKuRei
    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    328
    Likes Received:
    454
    Location:
    Colorado
    I think eddie has superior wrestling to dustin. DP didnt look that good to me vs jim miller, he was getting battered towards the end in the third round. This fight is also a three rounder tho. I feel eddie can do exactly what he did to pettis in this fight, assuming he does not get in a brawl and stand with dustin. What do you think?
     
    #1158
    Joseph Budden likes this.
  19. Joseph Budden When I Place My #Elite Bets I'ma Make It Look Sexy

    Joseph Budden
    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    20,012
    Likes Received:
    14,123
    Location:
    NJ
    I rewatched DP vs Jim the other day and concur about the wrestling. Miller is a phenomenal scrambler but has never been that good at offensive wrestling. He scored an easy td in the first, and a couple of times got really deep on a single. DP didn't even really try to sprawl. Eddie is a much better offensive wrestler, hes not just gonna let DP shuck off the deep single like its nothing like he did to Miller
     
    #1159
    ChoKuRei likes this.
  20. ChoKuRei Orange Belt

    ChoKuRei
    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    328
    Likes Received:
    454
    Location:
    Colorado
    Appreciate you input, much respect.
     
    #1160
    Joseph Budden likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"