Political Betting Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom.

    GearSolidMetal
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    2016 is a very interesting year in politics. Was wondering if we're going to have the opportunity to put some our hard-earned Sherdog money on the line for a favorite candidate or nominee.
     
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  2. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    not sure about sherdog $, but i know a lot of people will want to be betting on politics, discuss away!
     
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  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    Have 2u on Bernie Sanders to win the New Hampshire primary -160

    and

    2u on Bernie Sanders to be the next president +1000

    I also have a couple parlays ending with the Democrats winning the presidency for a good amount
     
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  4. trident Water Belt

    trident
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    Dan Carlin has a podcast called Common Sense (its worth the listen) and he was recently talking about the role of super delegates during the party conventions.

    They have roughly 25% of the vote and are not beholden to a candidate like delegates from the states. Normally they vote the line the other 75% have established but Carlin was talking about how their true role is to keep the party from getting hijacked by a swell of new voters or a candidate new to the part, which Bernie basically is.

    Hillary is a party stalwart where Bernie is a social democrat using the Democratic Party apparatus to get elected. If the primaries are close, you could see the party "rescuing" itself from this outsider with those 25% of delegates that represent the Democratic party.

    The GOP is even more convoluted because Trump might run as an independent if the party defeats him in the primaries, a move Bernie has said he won't do.

    Something to consider if you are wagering on this bizarre race.
     
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  5. Scythe Brown Belt

    Scythe
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    I also bet Bernie at +1500 to win the whole thing. In general, the Dem prices to win the whole thing are terrific considering the situation in both parties.

    I have a number of MMA-related parlays ending with Trump losing the nomination. Lots of money into that one, I've been surprised that this thing has kept up. Hoping that Cruz taking Iowa will shift the odds, I may just arb out at that point.
     
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  6. trident Water Belt

    trident
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    I have to say i am a little confused by Jeb! candidacy.

    In 2008 i had him and Hillary pegged for this year, but he has ben running his candidacy like a man sitting to close to an unknown gas leak.

    Im as baffled as everyone as to what is happening with Trump, but i still cant see it materializing.

    I think Jeb! is still a live dog. I could be dead ass wrong and we are entering a new age where personalities with little to no political experience (cough, Obama) take the high office, but at least Obama was a lawyer with government experience and some political experience, Trump is another animal all together.

    At +700 Jeb! might be worth a small play for the convention. Sure as shit the party does not want Trump.
     
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  7. GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom.

    GearSolidMetal
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    I mean, can we get a Mod's input on if it'll be up to bet on?

    I just made my first bet and win on Cruz, and I have a few gut feelings on who's going to win the primaries.
     
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  8. Scythe Brown Belt

    Scythe
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    I don't see it, but stranger things have happened. Rubio took Jeb's slot as the GOP representative. For Jeb to pull off a comeback, he'd need to suddenly turn verbose and become a center-stage operator. It feels more like he's willing to just sit through this thing to collect some delegates.
     
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  9. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    Do you guys think that "any other party for president" is worth a bet at +5500 in the instance that Trump does not win the Republican nomination and runs as an independent? If Trump does indeed not win the Republican nomination and runs as an independent you could always hedge with "Not Trump as president".
     
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  10. trident Water Belt

    trident
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    Trump wont win a general as an independent, he'll just split the GOP vote.

    I agree, Scythe, its an outside chance, but something about Rubio isnt selling me, too.

    Too many irregulars in this race for me to get a real handl, i'm just looking at what i think these party leaders might end up pulling at the end.

    There s a good case to made against each candidate.
     
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  11. Scythe Brown Belt

    Scythe
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    I don't know what bets will be offered at that point but if Trump goes independent and still has his current popularity, the Democrats just win, period. If I were the house, I wouldn't offer "Not Trump as president" as an independent at better than -20000 or something profoundly unbettable.

    If that scenario actually plays out, Trump takes somewhere between 5 and 30% of Republican votes (depending on the candidate and Trump's popularity at the time) and a Dem win becomes a lock. He's not getting any worthwhile portion of blue votes.
     
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  12. GearSolidMetal I'm here to chew bubblegum and bang your mom.

    GearSolidMetal
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    If by 'The Party' you mean the establishment politicians of both parties, you'd be correct.

    But sorry, I pay very close attention to politics, and Jeb has zero chance. Marco does, but he's trailing behind Cruz and his establishement ties and record will probably sink him.

    In all likelyhood, it's either Trump or Cruz.

    If all the other establishement candidates (Jeb, Christie, and Kasich) drop out and all their support goes to Marco, he's got a chance. But chances are, most of all their support have Trump or Cruz as their 2nd pick.
     
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  13. trident Water Belt

    trident
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    Yeah theres a reason Jeb! is +700 and i am mocking him and youre probably right and i am not watching this race, basically burned out on politics, but Cruz and Rubio are not National runners. I can tell that by just watching them for five seconds.

    It'll probably be Trump and that'll be crazy, but theres a part of me that just cant envisision this.

    Its still early. Crazy shit happens, and then it usually normalizes.

    But eight years out of power, its hard to see the GOP conceding this race. The only candidate out of the four we've mentioned that could win a national race is Jeb! Trump wont. Rubio and Cruz have no cross over or out of the woodwork appeal.

    Its going to take a firestorm from Sanders to keep Hillary from winning the convention, but either one is going to alienate the others base to an extent and others who dont like either.

    This should be an easy race for the GOP to win, but i dont see it with the front runners.
     
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  14. Scythe Brown Belt

    Scythe
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    I think Rubio has the best shot at a win for the GOP but it doesn't appear we agree. He's been the most well-spoken in the debates and the Republicans would be better off with someone that can appear to be moderate. If any of them have crossover, I'd think it's him, he just needs more breakout performances where he can show he's human. Jeb is kind of the same guy, but he's done nothing but mumble and he's even more obviously entrenched as a dog of the establishment in a year when they need a candidate who pretends to be more than an automaton.
     
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  15. trident Water Belt

    trident
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    You could be right. Im not real confident in my position, im just watching in awe.
     
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  16. Jack Scrapper White Belt

    Jack Scrapper
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    GL on your bet; he's the only candidate that deserves to win.

    A lot of people like Trump o_Oo_O

    And Everyone remember to go out and vote for your local marijuana initiatives.
     
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  17. jerryisgood Green Belt

    jerryisgood
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    I took Cruz and Sanders for their party's respective nominations (at +2000 and +2500) - Both have shifted with Cruz down to +3XX, at times +2XX. I also played Not Carson back when he was surging around the second or third debate which looks good now too. Someone was highly recommending Carson wins the caucus way back when but it doesn't look like that's going to pan out - I just picked him not to be the Republican nominee.
     
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  18. Jack Scrapper White Belt

    Jack Scrapper
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    The intersection of politics, sports bettors, and sherdog.
    This thread has promise.
    :)
     
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  19. PuertoRican Silver Belt

    PuertoRican
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    I have Bernie Sanders to be the next president at +2014 and +2125; I put $1.50 on each bet for some fun.

    I don't follow politics, so I'm not touching the primaries.
     
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  20. PuertoRican Silver Belt

    PuertoRican
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    What's Cruz's point spread? If it's +5.5 or better, you should place a bet. Hillary is a beast, but I don't think she'll be able to finish Cruz, let alone win more than 3 out of the 5 rounds; Cruz's footwork is too good.
     
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