My UFC on Fox 5 Bets (and others) - Post Yours! (Part 2)

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EzFlyer said:
btw i have NO idea how to handicap nelson-mitrione. obviously roy will be favorite. plus short notice for mitrione. how do you guys see this going down?
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I have to play mitrione at + odds, don't know exactly where to draw the line.

Atleast +180 and I'm playing mitrione.
 
EzFlyer said:
btw i have NO idea how to handicap nelson-mitrione. obviously roy will be favorite. plus short notice for mitrione. how do you guys see this going down?
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Short notice shouldn't be a problem, wasn't Mitrione training for a fight to begin? Mitrione over +200 would be good as I see this fight end up being a striking match.
 
Takk said:
He took some good shots on the chin when he fought Maldonado. I haven't gone back and watched all his fights but I can't recall something sticking out as far as chin issues go. Prob be a good fight to bet going to decision. Most likely neither guy is gonna KO each other. But I expect Pokrajac and the fight going to DEC to be overpriced.
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i'm not so confident. beltran's chin has gotta start to give soon.. and pokrajac is not really a decision fighter. tho usually he gets subbed if he's gonna get finished, which shouldn't be a concern against beltran.

my gut feel is decision for pokrajac, but i'm not exactly going to be betting that outcome :)
 
Takk said:
Short notice shouldn't be a problem, wasn't Mitrione training for a fight to begin? Mitrione over +200 would be good as I see this fight end up being a striking match.
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hrm. thx.. yea if mitrione is +200, i'd probably do 1u. but that's probably it. roy would have a big edge if he took mitrione down
 
man, just watched post fight presser yesterday... rory macdonald is a freakin psycho. i kinda love it. zero emotion.

i do criticize him when i hear him before fights when he says things like "yea i don't care about what my opponent can do" and "i just focus on myself" etc.. i think that's a bit naive...

but it's working for him so far.

the guy just doesn't seem to get phased by anything & genuinely doesn't seem to care if he gets boo'd or cheer'd.
 
EzFlyer said:
btw i have NO idea how to handicap nelson-mitrione. obviously roy will be favorite. plus short notice for mitrione. how do you guys see this going down?
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mitrione looked so tentative against kongo for some reason. Nelson has KO power and takedowns so i expect the same. dont see mitrone coming out swinging. he'll obviously try and stand with nelson, but his striking isnt that good.

but even if it is and starts tagging nelson, nelson wont be put away, and nelson has the option to go for a takedown. now mitrone is a big dude and nelson will have a hard time, but i still think he can do it. on the ground nelson has a huge edge, and I dont see mitrone being able to get up once he's down.

nelson has way more ways to win this. for meathead, his only way to win is by decision, which means out pointing nelson on the feet.

i cap nelson at around -350.

was funny that mitrone kept turning down fights with ground guys, then took the fight with nelson. don;t think he was training for anybody though. was talks about him stepping in against cormier, but he knew he'd lose it
 
EzFlyer said:
also i wanna stress how awesome this bellator card is..

http://www.sherdog.com/events/BFC-Bellator-Fighting-Championships-84-25655

hale-volkov (hw final)
jansen-held (LW final)
martinez-shamwow (FW final)
m'pumbu-vegh (LHW title)

but i've yet to CONFIRM for sure that all 4 are on friday..

such a shame they have to go head to head w/a ufc if so. best bellator card i can remember.
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M'Pumbu/Vegh was canceled due to injury. Herrig-Vidonic, an average chick fight, is included instead.

That would have been an incredible card for Bellator though. It would have been a shame that the high majority of fans would have tuned in to FX instead anyway. That event just isn't very good w/ Sot-Pearson, a couple of TUF matches, Mendes-Meza, etc. The only big lure is Lombard-Palhares. Pierce-Baczynski on the undercard is solid I suppose.

It's like the only fight I'll play on Bellator is Volkov-Hale. From the talk, it sounds like the odds will be around even, or Hale a slight favorite. I just think he's not inclined to go for TD's very often, too hittable and hurtable, and Volkov's reach and sharpshooting will be too much for him. Hale has beaten opponents who he has a significant reach advantage over. The ones he didn't were: M'Pumbu and Santos (who should have beaten him).

I might play Jansen over Held. But he'd have to be around even or better, and I don't think that happens. Jansen-Held is a lot like Machaev-Held, only Jansen has a better reach, and I assume will be trying to win.
 
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