Khabib vs Tony - Cardio & Finishing Ability

[12ga.]

I don't buy that they "planned" to take rd 3 off. That sounds nice...but there is no way in a fight that big he just decided "You know, I'll just strike with a dangerous striker instead of putting him on his back again where there is zero threat to me." No chance, none. Khabib emptied his tank trying to finish at the end of rd 2, and needed a breather plain and simple.

Your other point has some validity, Khabib may have to hunt less to "find" Tony than he does other guys. The issue is that once Tony is on his back, there's a very good chance he makes Khabib work a hell of a lot harder than Conor or Al Iaquinta or Barboza did. So the energy expenditure could still be much more vs Tony than vs his previous opponents despite Khabib maybe finding the TD's easier to get.

I'm not sure abt TDs easy. Tony doesnt go down unless he wants to. Luke Thomas talked about this in Lee fight analysis that tony actually pulled him on top of him. Conversely RDA tried half a dozen times and Tony stuffed him. I think because he knew he couldnt do anything to RDA on the ground. I think you will be surprised. Only two rounds at most of TD if that. After that All get stuffed.

Then so what if you're on top of him. It's not really a place you want to be. Lee did no damage and got fucked up from the bottom. Castillo held on for dear life with head buried in his chest because every time he postured he'd get fucked up. Tony is more scary from bottom than most guys are on top. He cut open pettis second he decided to follow him down.

 

[blaseblah]

Cardio won't matter as much if you're not the one in the position to dictate the pace. Khabib's skillset allows him to control the pace more so than tony's skillset does, so I don't think cardio will be the deciding factor in this fight.

I really don't think this is true. Khabib controlled the pace for two rounds against Conor and Iaquinta and still had to take a break in round three from grappling.

 

[Cat Biscuits]

My opinion is the same as it was when people were saying Conor would KTFO Khabib.......not gonna happen.......T Ferg is just another statistic for Khabib.

What's sad is people like you who can't see outside the box. You guys find a person who looks unstoppable, but fail to see any weaknesses where someone can take advantage and possibly win. You can be as "hardcore" of a fan as you want of "real" fighters, but it still doesn't give you the ability to know what will happen. You seem limited in your ability to assess a fight and how to exploit a weakness. You can't form any type of logical explanation as to why Khabib will murk Tony other than just making a baseless claim.

I'm sure you'll go off spewing that Khabib doesn't have a weakness, but that's not true. His striking is lacking compared to Tony, and his cardio is not better than Tony's either. And i'm sure his BJJ isn't better either. His defense on the ground is good, but only because he usually has dominant position. But we saw Fedor get subbed by an elite BJJ specialist in Werdum. Tony could cause a scramble and snatch a quick sub for the win.

Khabib won against Conor, but Conor isn't even on my top 5 at LW. His only strength was striking, which Khabib was able to avoid very easily. Conor is very one dimensional compared to Tony. Take away his only way to win the fight and he looks like an amateur in there. Tony on the other hand is way more well rounded.

Tony will not gas out like Conor, and will be very active on the ground. I know he'll get taken down and take lots of damage in the first two rounds from Khabib, but he has a solid chance to come back with his endurance and pressure. He always outlasts his opponents, and while Khabib has power to KO him, I don't see it very likely. Tony can accumulate damage and deal a serious blow to Khabib's stamina. Even the strongest fighters can get overwhelmed, and I see Tony winning in that manner.

 

[SquamtaOrthoptera2]

So many sad little people on Sherdog........

Like you, I agree

 

[mkess101]

Cardio won't matter as much if you're not the one in the position to dictate the pace. Khabib's skillset allows him to control the pace more so than tony's skillset does, so I don't think cardio will be the deciding factor in this fight.


I favor khabib in this fight because of his control, but I'll tell you what worries me most about tony: it's not his cardio and it's not his bjj— it's his elbows and his overall ability to cut people up. I can imagine a scenario with a controversial doctor stoppage in favor of tony.

Help me understand this argument better, because as of now it isn't holding water imo (specific to these two fighters anyway). But I do want to try to keep an open mind. I put $ on these fights and the worst thing you can do as a bettor is shut out differing views. It leads to lazy handicapping and doesn't allow you to absorb what can be relevant info.

My main issue with your argument about Khabib not worrying about cardio due to him controlling the pace is that I've seen him control the pace in his previous fights, yet still slow down. I'm not saying he gassed, but he noticeably slowed. My question is HOW exactly does Khabib control the pace to where he doesn't slow down midway through the fight vs Tony? I think we agree that Khabib will take Tony down early in the fight, right? He always does, and Tony likely won't have the ability to stop it. From there, is Khabib less aggressive with his attempts to pass Tony's guard than he has been with previous opponents? Theoretically that could save him some energy expenditure, but then he is sitting there with Tony in his guard throwing elbows at him and making him use energy defending. I just don't see Khabib doing that. Which means he will do his normal thing, and pass to half guard. Only with Tony he has a more capable and durable grappler off his back than he's faced...well...ever I guess? RDA avoided any damage, but didn't offer any offense or make Khabib work. Tony will be active in trying to regain full guard, will be throwing strikes, etc. Khabib isn't going to be able to just "slow things down". Tony will be aggressive everywhere, so Khabib (even while he's getting the better of it) will have to use energy.

I'm wondering how you slow the pace vs a guy like Tony, the way he fights now?

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

A few questions that I think could play a factor in the outcome of this fight are:

Did Khabib reduce his pace in the 3rd-ish rounds of his last few fights because he had to, or because he could?

If Khabib does tire more than Tony, can Tony actually finish him?

If this fight goes into the later rounds, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tony more active, but it's hard to see him putting Khabib away. The guy's never been in trouble for even a minute in any of his UFC fights, and even if he drops the championship rounds to Tony I've got to think Khabib winning the first 3 is likely.

IF there's a finish, I see it being along the lines of round 1 of Lee vs Tony (which I realize wasn't a finish, but close...just rewatched it, great fight). Tony can sub just about anybody in the division not named Khabib.

Ferg has the best chance of beating Khabib in the division, but I don't think it will be enough. Unless Khabib gasses as hard as staph-Kevin Lee, which we have no reason to expect, I think he wins one way or another. Tony really does have near-GOAT cardio and an amazing ability to recover, but Khabib just doesn't get into trouble - on the feet, on the ground, or with his energy.

Also curious to see how Khabib uses his jab, and how Tony responds.

Pleeeease just fight already.

I was rewatching khabibs fights tonight thinking the same thing. After watching the Conor and al fight I noticed he always slows down round 3, even against barboz. It was the most obvious against al because of the scrambles. Khabib does damage but it takes a ton of energy. The key to victory for tony is to employ the jab and try to bust his nose early if possible. Then scramble work work work work. And when round 3 comes, FORCE THE GRAPPLING. Most guys have taken this as their chance to try and strike but when he’s not looking for a takedown and takes little risk k. The feet you aren’t gonna ko him cold, not with his chin. I think tony has the cardio to force the contact and take khabib into and uncomfortable situation. I don’t think he can win though.

 

[fortheo]

I really don't think this is true. Khabib controlled the pace for two rounds against Conor and Iaquinta and still had to take a break in round three from grappling.

I don't think he ever HAD to take a break. He looked in complete control on the feet, too, especially against AI.

You don't think he looked in control of those fights on the feet too?

 

[mkess101]

I'm not sure abt TDs easy. Tony doesnt go down unless he wants to. Luke Thomas talked about this in Lee fight analysis that tony actually pulled him on top of him. Conversely RDA tried half a dozen times and Tony stuffed him. I think because he knew he couldnt do anything to RDA on the ground. I think you will be surprised. Only two rounds at most of TD if that. After that All get stuffed.

Then so what if you're on top of him. It's not really a place you want to be. Lee did no damage and got fucked up from the bottom. Castillo held on for dear life with head buried in his chest because every time he postured he'd get fucked up. Tony is more scary from bottom than most guys are on top. He cut open pettis second he decided to follow him down.

Khabib's chain wrestling is a different animal though (when he's fresh). Tony may have more success than I think keeping it standing, but I think in rds 1 and 2 he eventually ends up on his back. From there I really think his goal is going to be to make Khabib work and cut him up with elbows.

Once rd 3 comes around I agree, Khabib is going to find everything (TD's included) doesn't come easily (if at all).

The brilliance of Tony's game is that the pace he sets forces his opponents to use energy. No matter if its standing, him with top position, or off his back. And when he senses his opponent tiring, he ratchets that pressure up even more.

 

[fortheo]

Help me understand this argument better, because as of now it isn't holding water imo (specific to these two fighters anyway). But I do want to try to keep an open mind. I put $ on these fights and the worst thing you can do as a bettor is shut out differing views. It leads to lazy handicapping and doesn't allow you to absorb what can be relevant info.

My main issue with your argument about Khabib not worrying about cardio due to him controlling the pace is that I've seen him control the pace in his previous fights, yet still slow down.

I'm not saying he gassed, but he noticeably slowed. My question is HOW exactly does Khabib control the pace to where he doesn't slow down midway through the fight vs Tony? I think we agree that Khabib will take Tony down early in the fight, right? He always does, and Tony likely won't have the ability to stop it. From there, is Khabib less aggressive with his attempts to pass Tony's guard than he has been with previous opponents? Theoretically that could save him some energy expenditure, but then he is sitting there with Tony in his guard throwing elbows at him and making him use energy defending. I just don't see Khabib doing that. Which means he will do his normal thing, and pass to half guard. Only with Tony he has a more capable and durable grappler off his back than he's faced...well...ever I guess? RDA avoided any damage, but didn't offer any offense or make Khabib work. Tony will be active in trying to regain full guard, will be throwing strikes, etc. Khabib isn't going to be able to just "slow things down". Tony will be aggressive everywhere, so Khabib (even while he's getting the better of it) will have to use energy.

I'm wondering how you slow the pace vs a guy like Tony, the way he fights now?

And he's still in control of the pace when the fight slows down. He's always seemed in control. What does it matter if he slows down if he is still in control?

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

This is possible, and Tony's elbows may be his best path to victory, but I think the most likely outcomes are Khabib by GNP early, or Khabib by decision.

We’ve never seen how khabib responds to being cut

 

[NoSmilez]

If Khabib is on top; he is fine. Only reason he had to rest a little because he went for a big flurry on mcgregor on the ground. If Tony scrambles, Khabib will focus on control with less GNP albeit more controlled. I don't believe cardio will be a big factor for this fight. It will probably boil down to if Tony can keep Khabib in his guard or not.

 

[mkess101]

And he's still in control of the pace when the fight slows down. He's always seemed in control. What does it matter if he slows down if he is still in control?

Okay but you realize that when he has slowed in the past he hasn't been fighting a guy with seemingly endless cardio who ups his pressure as fights go on, right? Yes, you can slow down vs Al Iaquinta or an exhausted Conor and still look "in control". But what happens when it's a guy who isn't tired and who isn't content to have a round of glorified sparring? A guy who is sending you are tired and is looking to swarm you, knowing he has far more left in his gas tank than you do?

I guess that's the main question I have: What happens when this time the other guy doesn't allow you that chance to slow the pace because he isn't tired?

 

[mkess101]

If Khabib is on top; he is fine. Only reason he had to rest a little because he went for a big flurry on mcgregor on the ground. If Tony scrambles, Khabib will focus on control with less GNP albeit more controlled. I don't believe cardio will be a big factor for this fight. It will probably boil down to if Tony can keep Khabib in his guard or not.

Okay...why did he slow vs Iaquinta then? How was a beaten and exhausted Barboza still able to get out from under Khabib and spend the last minute of that fight head hunting on the feet? Khabib didn't go ballistic trying to finish either of those fights...

 

[fortheo]

Okay but you realize that when he has slowed in the past he hasn't been fighting a guy with seemingly endless cardio who ups his pressure as fights go on, right? Yes, you can slow down vs Al Iaquinta or an exhausted Conor and still look "in control". But what happens when it's a guy who isn't tired and who isn't content to have a round of glorified sparring? A guy who is sending you are tired and is looking to swarm you, knowing he has far more left in his gas tank than you do?

I guess that's the main question I have: What happens when this time the other guy doesn't allow you that chance to slow the pace because he isn't tired?

Of course I realize that, except I haven't bought into the idea that, just because khabib slowed down in a couple fights, means he HAD to slow down. I also don't think that, just because khabib slowed down (yet still looked great) against AI and conor, that he'll slow down against tony. It seems to me that khabib only slows down when he feels like he has the fight in the bag—it doesn't seem like he does it out of necessity. Obviously, there's different thoughts on the subject; but if you look at khabib in those later rounds, he's barely breathing heavy. I don't know. I just haven't seen khabib not in control of the pace, so it's hard to imagine him being overwhelmed. If anyone can do it, tony can, though.

 

[deviake]

Why would a fighter apply less pressure and lose a round if they didn't have to? I've seen this question posed several times and I still don't understand why it's asked, no offense

 

[khabib-bot]

Khabibs literally in training camp again. No breaks no whiskey tour - go look at akajav’s Instagram he’s back in the trenches. Tell me that’s not impressive af

 

[fortheo]

Why would a fighter apply less pressure and lose a round if they didn't have to? I've seen this question posed several times and I still don't understand why it's asked, no offense

Why expend more pressure and energy than you need to if you're not in danger and you're still winning by doing less?

If you can win a round and preserve energy, then it seems smart to me.

 

[-Magua-]

What's sad is people like you who can't see outside the box. You guys find a person who looks unstoppable, but fail to see any weaknesses where someone can take advantage and possibly win. You can be as "hardcore" of a fan as you want of "real" fighters, but it still doesn't give you the ability to know what will happen. You seem limited in your ability to assess a fight and how to exploit a weakness. You can't form any type of logical explanation as to why Khabib will murk Tony other than just making a baseless claim.

I'm sure you'll go off spewing that Khabib doesn't have a weakness, but that's not true. His striking is lacking compared to Tony, and his cardio is not better than Tony's either. And i'm sure his BJJ isn't better either. His defense on the ground is good, but only because he usually has dominant position. But we saw Fedor get subbed by an elite BJJ specialist in Werdum. Tony could cause a scramble and snatch a quick sub for the win.

Khabib won against Conor, but Conor isn't even on my top 5 at LW. His only strength was striking, which Khabib was able to avoid very easily. Conor is very one dimensional compared to Tony. Take away his only way to win the fight and he looks like an amateur in there. Tony on the other hand is way more well rounded.

Tony will not gas out like Conor, and will be very active on the ground. I know he'll get taken down and take lots of damage in the first two rounds from Khabib, but he has a solid chance to come back with his endurance and pressure. He always outlasts his opponents, and while Khabib has power to KO him, I don't see it very likely. Tony can accumulate damage and deal a serious blow to Khabib's stamina. Even the strongest fighters can get overwhelmed, and I see Tony winning in that manner.

What you are saying makes sense, the only thing I’m slowly starting to pick or get a hint of... is that, it’s the style or combination of striking and grappling in accord with ones style.

Not articulated well, but I feel, while Tony’s striking by itself is crisper and more unpredictable than khabib and he’s more of an ‘offensive/unorthodox, combination fighter... I see khabibs striking weirdly as effective because it suits his style as well.

I do agree, it appears tony has better stamina, however I favor khabibs ability and strength to maintain top control over tony, as well as their is less energy expenditure when one is on top, verses fighting from the bottom, instead of Tony’s ability to scramble out or have better endurance.

I think tony does give him some issues and different looks, but I don’t see this fight being as close as I did in the past.
That said hopefully it happens in the next 6 months.

 

[deviake]

Why expend more pressure than you need to if you're still winning by doing less?

Because you're not tired and can still whoop that ass on the ground? If you're not tired and can dominate the fight in one area it makes no sense not to do that unless you're tired and/or can't get the fight where you want it.

Why not pressure if you're not tired?

 

[mkess101]

Of course I realize that, except I haven't bought into the idea that, just because khabib slowed down in a couple fights, means he HAD to slow down. I also don't think that, just because khabib slowed down (yet still looked great) against AI and conor, that he'll slow down against tony. It seems to me that khabib only slows down when he feels like he has the fight in the bag. Obviously, there's different thoughts on the subject; but if you look at khabib in those later rounds, he's barely breathing heavy. I don't know. I just haven't seen khabib not in control of the pace, so it's hard to imagine him being overwhelmed. If anyone can do it, tony can, though.

That's fair. I'd encourage you to watch the end of the Barboza fight though. Khabib beat Edson up badly early in the fight. He secures s TD in rd 3 but Edson (who wasn't able to get to his feet or even effectively defend early when taken down) is able to get back to his feet and stay there for the final minute of the fight. In addition if you watch the footage after the fight Khabib is absolutely tired.

Because it was such an easy win for Khabib in its totality, this kind of thing gets overlooked. But I guarantee Khabib didn't want Edson back on his feet for the last minute of that fight. Khabib just didn't have the energy to keep him down.