Just how good are TUF coaches at selecting talent?

[JayPettryMMA]

I've been rewatching TUF 3 because the rivalry between Tito and Ken was comical, and also to see ol One-Eye before his injury. I kept seeing Ed Herman complain about not getting picked for Tito's team, and then I wondered...how good are the TUF coaches at judging talent?

How often do their first picks win the show, much less stay in the UFC?

So with that, I wanted to go through all of the TUF shows I had access to, obviously starting with my personal favorite season, Season 1. I'll list each season by coaches and their first picks, and where those first picks ultimately finished in the season. I had other thoughts, like "whatever happened to Kristian Rothaermel, who allegedly had a 40-3 record coming into TUF 3?" I'll leave those to another day. Instead, let's look at the top picks by the coaches!


Season 1
Team Couture - Nate Quarry - Injured before fighting in show, had 7-3 UFC record including MW title loss
Team Liddell - Bobby Southworth - Lost in quarterfinal, then lost in finale episode and left UFC


Season 2
Team Franklin - Keith Jardine - Lost in semifinal, had 6-7 UFC record, and then lost fight for Strikeforce MW title
Team Hughes - Joe Stevenson - WON TUF 2, had 8-8 UFC record including a loss for LW title


Season 3
Team Ortiz - Matt Hamill - Won elimination fight but injured and left show, had 10-5 UFC record, currently fights in WSOF
Team Shamrock - Jesse Forbes - Lost elimination fight, lost again in semifinal as injury replacement, had 0-3 UFC record


Season 4 - No coach picks


Season 5
Team Pulver - Corey Hill, RIP - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-2 UFC record
Team Penn - Gray Maynard - Lost in semifinal, still (?) active with UFC, with 9-5-1 (1 NC) UFC record including two title losses


Season 6
Team Hughes - Dan Barrera - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record
Team Serra - Joe Scarola - Lost elimination fight, retired from MMA after TUF 6


Season 7
Team Forrest - Tim Credeur - Lost in semifinal, lost alternate replacement bout, had 3-2 UFC record
Team Rampage - CB Dollaway - Lost in semifinal, lost in finals as replacement, still active in UFC with 9-7 UFC record


Season 8
Team Nogueira:
LW - Phillipe Nover - Lost in finals, 1-3 UFC record and returned to UFC in 2015
LHW - Ryan Bader - WON TUF 8 LHW, still active in UFC with 12-4 UFC record
Team Mir:
LW - Junie Browning - Lost in semifinal, had 1-1 UFC record
LHW - Krzysztof Soszynski - Lost in semifinal, had 6-3 UFC record


Season 9 - No coach picks


Season 10
Team Rampage - Kimbo Slice - Lost in preliminary, had worst fight in UFC history against Houston Alexander (sorry, had to get that in there), had 1-1 UFC record and currently fights in Bellator
Team Rashad - James McSweeney - Lost in semifinal, had 1-2 UFC record


Season 11
Team Liddell - Kyle Noke - Lost in quarterfinal, still active in UFC with 5-3 record
Team Ortiz - Nick Ring - Won preliminary but was injured, had 3-3 UFC record


Season 12
Team GSP - Michael Johnson - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 8-5 record
Team Koscheck - Marc Stevens - Lost elimination fight to Cody McKenzie, no UFC fights


Season 13
Team Lesnar - Len Bentley - Lost in preliminary, no UFC fights
Team Dos Santos - Shamar Bailey - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-3 UFC record


Season 14
Team Bisping:
BW - Louis Gaudinot - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-3 (1 NC) UFC record
FW - Diego Brandao - WON TUF 14, still active in UFC with 5-3 UFC record
Team Miller:
BW - John Dodson - WON TUF 14, still active in UFC with 7-1 UFC record with one title loss at FLW and one upcoming FLW title fight on 9/5/15
FW - Dennis Bermudez - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 7-3 UFC record


Season 15
Team Cruz - Justin Lawrence - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-2 UFC record and currently fights in Bellator
Team Faber - Al Iaquinta - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 7-2 UFC record


TUF Brazil 1
Team Vitor - Cezar Ferreira - WON TUF Brazil 1 MW, still active in UFC with 4-3 UFC record
Team Wanderlei - Rony Jason - WON TUF Brazil 1 FW, still active in UFC with 3-2 UFC record


Season 16
Team Carwin - Sam Alvey - Lost elimination fight, joined UFC in 2014 and is still active in UFC with 3-2 UFC record
Team Nelson - Dom Waters - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record


TUF: The Smashes UK vs Australia - No coach picks


Season 17
Team Jones - Clint Hester - Lost elimination fight, still active in UFC with 4-2 UFC record
Team Sonnen - Luke Barnatt - Lost in quarterfinal, had 3-3 UFC record


TUF Brazil 2
Team Nogueira - Luiz Dutra Jr - Won elimination fight defeating Irie but injured and left show, still active in UFC with 0-2 record
Team Werdum - Pedro Irie - Lost elimination fight to Dutra Jr, no UFC fights


Season 18
Team Rousey:
BW - Chris Beal - Lost elimination fight, still active in UFC with 2-2 UFC record
WBW - Shayna Baszler - Lost elimination fight, had 0-2 UFC record
Team Tate:
BW - Cody Bollinger - Forfeited elimination fight, no UFC fights
WBW - Julianna Pena - WON TUF 18, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record


TUF China (these names are coming straight off wikipedia so that's the spelling I'm using)
Team Sky Dragons:
FW - Ning Guangyou - WON TUF China FW, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record
WW - Zhang Lipeng - WON TUF China WW, had 2-2 UFC record
Team Flying Lions:
FW - Yang Jianping - Lost in finals, had 0-1 UFC record
WW - Wang Sai - Lost in finals, still (it says he's had 3 fights outside of the UFC since his last UFC fight but he still has a UFC profile) active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record


TUF Nations: Canada vs Australia - No coach picks


TUF Brazil 3
Team Sonnen:
MW - Marcio Alexandre Jr - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 0-2 UFC record
HW - Marcos Rogerio de Lima - Lost in semifinal, still active in UFC with 2-1 UFC record
Team Wanderlei:
MW - Ricardo Abreu - Lost in semifinal, still active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record
HW - Antonio Carlos Jr - WON TUF Brazil 3 HW, still active in UFC with 2-1 UFC record


Season 19
Team Edgar:
MW - Ian Stephens - Lost elimination fight by way of Majority Draw thanks to NSAC, no UFC fights
LHW - Corey Anderson - WON TUF 19 LHW, still active in UFC with 1-2 UFC record
Team Penn:
MW - Mike King - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record
LHW - Anton Berzin - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights


TUF Latin America - No coach picks


Season 20
Team Pettis - Carla Esparza - WON TUF 20, still active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record and was the former (and first) UFC Women's Strawweight Champ
Team Melendez - Tecia Torres - Lost in preliminary, lost as injury replacement in quarterfinal, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record


TUF Brazil 4
Team Silva/Nogueira:
BW - Matheus Mattos - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights (yet?)
LW - Andre Ricardo - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights
Team Shogun:
BW - Matheus Nicolau - Lost in semifinal, first scheduled UFC fight 11/15
LW - Nazareno Malegarie - Lost in semifinal, first schedule UFC fight 9/15


TUF ATT vs Blackzilians - No coach picks


TUF Latin America 2 - Ongoing as of 9/15


Oh my god that took way longer than I thought it would. It's all of them, though, even the international ones. I'll try to sum it up because there's no way I'd want to read this whole thing. It's a nightmare.

Anyways, here are the TLDRs:

A) 12 first picks out of 60 have WON their season of The Ultimate Fighter
2) 7 first picks have won their fights during the season and then LOST in the finals
iii) 11 first picks have won their fights during the season and then LOST in the semifinals
d) 7 first picks have LOST in the quarterfinals
. . . . .) 19 first picks have LOST in the preliminaries/elimination rounds
SIX) 4 first picks have been injured during their season and had to leave the show
VII) Not all seasons are equal, because some first picks were from pools of 16 fighters and others had only 8 to choose from
eight) Only one first pick has been a UFC champion: Carla Esparza
9) Five top picks have fought for a title at one point in their career

What's the takeaway? I don't know. I just thought it'd be interesting to chronicle all of this. It was, but it was exhausting and I'll never do it again. Thanks for reading, I guess.

 

[Fiddlesticks]

 

[Post 2 Decision]

There should be an asterisk by Esparza being a champ, she became champ on the show pretty much.

 

[surgeyou1]

There should be an asterisk by Esparza being a champ, she became champ on the show pretty much.

Lol what? She was already the Invicta champ and basically most of the division was on the show.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Lol what? She was already the Invicta champ and basically most of the division was on the show.

She was the champ of the division already in that case, and was picked first.

You tell me that that's the same situation as everyone else on this list..

 

[spetanink]

It's probably hard to pick off the info they have. They don't get to watch all the old footage, they just get to watch their preliminary round fights. Plus guys develop a lot over the show. Imagine making an NBA draft pick off watching one game and not really knowing the quality of opponent.

 

[Singlelegsweep]

Some are good, some are bad.

A big part of it to remember is who picks the match ups, you can pick worse fighters who win fights because of the style match up

Ken was terrible, seemed to just pick based off of who would look tougher standing in a bar.
Rampage was pretty terrible, which is why he was blown out both seasons, the fact he jumped at the chance to make Kimbo his first pick when Schaub, Nelson, McSweeny and Marcus Jones were still open, he also picked Wes Sims before Scott Junk and Mitrione.. it was just bad all around.

I think Liddell was the best, when Dana and Tito doubted his pick he said that he didn't just pick based off of records and actually put in the work to see who each fighters wins and losses were against, at what point in there career they happened and avoided people who took a lot of damage in the first fights. And it paid when he got to pick the match ups and Tito's team kept getting injuries.

 

[Singlelegsweep]

Some are good, some are bad.

A big part of it to remember is who picks the match ups, you can pick worse fighters who win fights because of the style match up

Ken was terrible, seemed to just pick based off of who would look tougher standing in a bar.
Rampage was pretty terrible, which is why he was blown out both seasons, the fact he jumped at the chance to make Kimbo his first pick when Schaub, Nelson, McSweeny and Marcus Jones were still open, he also picked Wes Sims before Scott Junk and Mitrione.. it was just bad all around.

I think Liddell was the best, when Dana and Tito doubted his pick he said that he didn't just pick based off of records and actually put in the work to see who each fighters wins and losses were against, at what point in there career they happened and avoided people who took a lot of damage in the first fights. And it paid when he got to pick the match ups and Tito's team kept getting injuries.

To add to this, remember these guys are fighting like every week or two, which with the fights alone is rough as hell since most pro fighters wait at least a month or two before even scheduling another fight and then have a full 4-8 week camp before the weight cut. Where as in TUF they are told who they're fighting 48 hours before the fight and have to spend some of the time doing the weight cut, I think it would be more wise to pick smaller fighters who can just train and focus on the fights instead of going through big weight cuts every couple weeks on short notice.

Off topic, how many seasons did it take them to stop eliminating fighters with stupid challenges instead of fights? 3 seasons? 4?

 

[Chris Gaines]

 

[JayPettryMMA]

Also interesting that Rousey may be the worst judge of talent. Her top picks were Baszler and Chris Beal. Her other WBW picks were Jessamyn Duke, Peggy Morgan, and Jessica Rakoczy, and her other BW picks were Davey Grant, Anthony Gutierrez and Michael Wootten.

 

[Drake]

Good shit, jeicex.

Whole lot of losing in there... It seems most of the coaches just decide off the hype of their fights to get in the house.

About Ron, Baszler was only picked first because they're bffs....unless they became friends through TUF...don't remember.

 

[DGT4NOW]

Good shit, jeicex.

Whole lot of losing in there... It seems most of the coaches just decide off the hype of their fights to get in the house.

About Ron, Baszler was only picked first because they're bffs....unless they became friends through TUF...don't remember.

They became friends through TUF
Same with Duke

I think you are confusing Pena & Tate with Ronda & Baszler

 

[Drake]

They became friends through TUF
Same with Duke

I think you are confusing Pena & Tate with Ronda & Baszler

Nah, I remember Miesha & Pena were friends prior. Just thought they all were before that for some reason...

 

[DGT4NOW]

Also interesting that Rousey may be the worst judge of talent. Her top picks were Baszler and Chris Beal. Her other WBW picks were Jessamyn Duke, Peggy Morgan, and Jessica Rakoczy, and her other BW picks were Davey Grant, Anthony Gutierrez and Michael Wootten.

Ronda was a bad coach.
Her & Edmond did not do a good job
Duke & Baszler regressed under their guidance.

People bring up that Ronda was so invested. She was invested bc she hates losing. If she was a decent coach, she would have worked with Shayna on the possibility that she was under-estimating Pena.

 

[hatakiyama]

thanks for doing all that work.
it was a fun read.

you have to count Carla's title, it's similar to Ronda's or Benson's or Jose's or Dominick's... but even more earned cause of the show. at the time that was the who's who of the division and no one knew much about joanna.

also i'd like to see another comeback season. maybe at lhw.

 

[JayPettryMMA]

thanks for doing all that work.
it was a fun read.

you have to count Carla's title, it's similar to Ronda's or Benson's or Jose's or Dominick's... but even more earned cause of the show. at the time that was the who's who of the division and no one knew much about joanna.

also i'd like to see another comeback season. maybe at lhw.

Thanks. Carla's title was the special case because it was earned on the show, and the fights leading up to it were exhibition matches. Honestly, that should have been the "Live" season so that the fights could be counted as professional fights and not just exhibitions.

 

[Shaddows]

I've been rewatching TUF 3 because the rivalry between Tito and Ken was comical, and also to see ol One-Eye before his injury. I kept seeing Ed Herman complain about not getting picked for Tito's team, and then I wondered...how good are the TUF coaches at judging talent?

How often do their first picks win the show, much less stay in the UFC?

So with that, I wanted to go through all of the TUF shows I had access to, obviously starting with my personal favorite season, Season 1. I'll list each season by coaches and their first picks, and where those first picks ultimately finished in the season. I had other thoughts, like "whatever happened to Kristian Rothaermel, who allegedly had a 40-3 record coming into TUF 3?" I'll leave those to another day. Instead, let's look at the top picks by the coaches!


Season 1
Team Couture - Nate Quarry - Injured before fighting in show, had 7-3 UFC record including MW title loss
Team Liddell - Bobby Southworth - Lost in quarterfinal, then lost in finale episode and left UFC


Season 2
Team Franklin - Keith Jardine - Lost in semifinal, had 6-7 UFC record, and then lost fight for Strikeforce MW title
Team Hughes - Joe Stevenson - WON TUF 2, had 8-8 UFC record including a loss for LW title


Season 3
Team Ortiz - Matt Hamill - Won elimination fight but injured and left show, had 10-5 UFC record, currently fights in WSOF
Team Shamrock - Jesse Forbes - Lost elimination fight, lost again in semifinal as injury replacement, had 0-3 UFC record


Season 4 - No coach picks


Season 5
Team Pulver - Corey Hill, RIP - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-2 UFC record
Team Penn - Gray Maynard - Lost in semifinal, still (?) active with UFC, with 9-5-1 (1 NC) UFC record including two title losses


Season 6
Team Hughes - Dan Barrera - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record
Team Serra - Joe Scarola - Lost elimination fight, retired from MMA after TUF 6


Season 7
Team Forrest - Tim Credeur - Lost in semifinal, lost alternate replacement bout, had 3-2 UFC record
Team Rampage - CB Dollaway - Lost in semifinal, lost in finals as replacement, still active in UFC with 9-7 UFC record


Season 8
Team Nogueira:
LW - Phillipe Nover - Lost in finals, 1-3 UFC record and returned to UFC in 2015
LHW - Ryan Bader - WON TUF 8 LHW, still active in UFC with 12-4 UFC record
Team Mir:
LW - Junie Browning - Lost in semifinal, had 1-1 UFC record
LHW - Krzysztof Soszynski - Lost in semifinal, had 6-3 UFC record


Season 9 - No coach picks


Season 10
Team Rampage - Kimbo Slice - Lost in preliminary, had worst fight in UFC history against Houston Alexander (sorry, had to get that in there), had 1-1 UFC record and currently fights in Bellator
Team Rashad - James McSweeney - Lost in semifinal, had 1-2 UFC record


Season 11
Team Liddell - Kyle Noke - Lost in quarterfinal, still active in UFC with 5-3 record
Team Ortiz - Nick Ring - Won preliminary but was injured, had 3-3 UFC record


Season 12
Team GSP - Michael Johnson - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 8-5 record
Team Koscheck - Marc Stevens - Lost elimination fight to Cody McKenzie, no UFC fights


Season 13
Team Lesnar - Len Bentley - Lost in preliminary, no UFC fights
Team Dos Santos - Shamar Bailey - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-3 UFC record


Season 14
Team Bisping:
BW - Louis Gaudinot - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-3 (1 NC) UFC record
FW - Diego Brandao - WON TUF 14, still active in UFC with 5-3 UFC record
Team Miller:
BW - John Dodson - WON TUF 14, still active in UFC with 7-1 UFC record with one title loss at FLW and one upcoming FLW title fight on 9/5/15
FW - Dennis Bermudez - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 7-3 UFC record


Season 15
Team Cruz - Justin Lawrence - Lost in quarterfinal, had 1-2 UFC record and currently fights in Bellator
Team Faber - Al Iaquinta - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 7-2 UFC record


TUF Brazil 1
Team Vitor - Cezar Ferreira - WON TUF Brazil 1 MW, still active in UFC with 4-3 UFC record
Team Wanderlei - Rony Jason - WON TUF Brazil 1 FW, still active in UFC with 3-2 UFC record


Season 16
Team Carwin - Sam Alvey - Lost elimination fight, joined UFC in 2014 and is still active in UFC with 3-2 UFC record
Team Nelson - Dom Waters - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record


TUF: The Smashes UK vs Australia - No coach picks


Season 17
Team Jones - Clint Hester - Lost elimination fight, still active in UFC with 4-2 UFC record
Team Sonnen - Luke Barnatt - Lost in quarterfinal, had 3-3 UFC record


TUF Brazil 2
Team Nogueira - Luiz Dutra Jr - Won elimination fight defeating Irie but injured and left show, still active in UFC with 0-2 record
Team Werdum - Pedro Irie - Lost elimination fight to Dutra Jr, no UFC fights


Season 18
Team Rousey:
BW - Chris Beal - Lost elimination fight, still active in UFC with 1-2 UFC record
WBW - Shayna Baszler - Lost elimination fight, had 0-2 UFC record
Team Tate:
BW - Cody Bollinger - Forfeited elimination fight, no UFC fights
WBW - Julianna Pena - WON TUF 18, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record


TUF China (these names are coming straight off wikipedia so that's the spelling I'm using)
Team Sky Dragons:
FW - Ning Guangyou - WON TUF China FW, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record
WW - Zhang Lipeng - WON TUF China WW, had 2-2 UFC record
Team Flying Lions:
FW - Yang Jianping - Lost in finals, had 0-1 UFC record
WW - Wang Sai - Lost in finals, still (it says he's had 3 fights outside of the UFC since his last UFC fight but he still has a UFC profile) active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record


TUF Nations: Canada vs Australia - No coach picks


TUF Brazil 3
Team Sonnen:
MW - Marcio Alexandre Jr - Lost in finals, still active in UFC with 0-2 UFC record
HW - Marcos Rogerio de Lima - Lost in semifinal, still active in UFC with 2-1 UFC record
Team Wanderlei:
MW - Ricardo Abreu - Lost in semifinal, still active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record
HW - Antonio Carlos Jr - WON TUF Brazil 3 HW, still active in UFC with 2-1 UFC record


Season 19
Team Edgar:
MW - Ian Stephens - Lost elimination fight by way of Majority Draw thanks to NSAC, no UFC fights
LHW - Corey Anderson - WON TUF 19 LHW, still active in UFC with 1-2 UFC record
Team Penn:
MW - Mike King - Lost elimination fight, had 0-1 UFC record
LHW - Anton Berzin - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights


TUF Latin America - No coach picks


Season 20
Team Pettis - Carla Esparza - WON TUF 20, still active in UFC with 1-1 UFC record and was the former (and first) UFC Women's Strawweight Champ
Team Melendez - Tecia Torres - Lost in preliminary, lost as injury replacement in quarterfinal, still active in UFC with 2-0 UFC record


TUF Brazil 4
Team Silva/Nogueira:
BW - Matheus Mattos - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights (yet?)
LW - Andre Ricardo - Lost elimination fight, no UFC fights
Team Shogun:
BW - Matheus Nicolau - Lost in semifinal, first scheduled UFC fight 11/15
LW - Nazareno Malegarie - Lost in semifinal, first schedule UFC fight 9/15


TUF ATT vs Blackzilians - No coach picks


TUF Latin America 2 - Ongoing as of 9/15


Oh my god that took way longer than I thought it would. It's all of them, though, even the international ones. I'll try to sum it up because there's no way I'd want to read this whole thing. It's a nightmare.

Anyways, here are the TLDRs:

A) 12 first picks out of 60 have WON their season of The Ultimate Fighter
2) 7 first picks have won their fights during the season and then LOST in the finals
iii) 11 first picks have won their fights during the season and then LOST in the semifinals
d) 7 first picks have LOST in the quarterfinals
. . . . .) 19 first picks have LOST in the preliminaries/elimination rounds
SIX) 4 first picks have been injured during their season and had to leave the show
VII) Not all seasons are equal, because some first picks were from pools of 16 fighters and others had only 8 to choose from
eight) Only one first pick has been a UFC champion: Carla Esparza
9) Five top picks have fought for a title at one point in their career

What's the takeaway? I don't know. I just thought it'd be interesting to chronicle all of this. It was, but it was exhausting and I'll never do it again. Thanks for reading, I guess.

LOL thanks for the read.... interesting, but like you, can't find a real use for this information... (glad you are not doing it again!!!)

 

[JayPettryMMA]

LOL thanks for the read.... interesting, but like you, can't find a real use for this information... (glad you are not doing it again!!!)

Yeah it's funny, about halfway through putting this all together, I stopped and tried to remember why I was doing it. I honestly couldn't remember, but I didn't want to waste the stuff I had put together already so I just went with it.

 

[The_Renaissance]

Don't see a problem with this.

Unless a coach has experience with a certain guy (trained at his gym, etc), these are 32 random dudes he's never heard of or seen fight. Of course, you're going to base your opinion on the guy's fight/performance to get into the house.

 

[EndlessCritic]

shrug, who really cares. the way the show is edited, it looks like the coaches watch them for a couple of hours.