Invicta 23 - Porto vs Niedzwiedz - Kansas City | Page 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 8, 2017.

  1. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    Cmon 5d I want some of the above...
     
    #21
    TheOneTrueKing likes this.
  2. Xuh Black Belt

    Xuh
    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2002
    Messages:
    6,015
    Likes Received:
    5,442
    Location:
    Oxford, England
    Maxed the Unibet line on d'Alelio (limit: £14.22 :rolleyes:)
    and Faszholz (limit: £31.85 :rolleyes:)


    Tiburcio: too steep
    Lee: too steep (haven't seen her opponent but 1.25 is always too low with Lee's low IQ)
    Porto vs Needz-weedz: Wanna wait see what the Yanqi book does
     
    #22
  3. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/11728-invicta-fc-23-betting-odds

    Invicta FC 23: Porto vs. Niedzwiedz

    MAY 20, 2017

    Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri

    --
    Vanessa Porto +165
    Agnieszka Niedzwiedz -215
    -
    Roxanne Modafferi +110
    Sarah D'Alelio -150
    -
    Tessa Simpson +140
    Herica Tiburcio -180
    -
    Elizabeth Phillips +115
    Kelly Faszholz -155
    -
    Liz Tracy +435
    Andrea Lee -705

    -----

    WHOA. i was expecting to play niedzwiedz as a small dog hre, -215 opener!? looks like i'm on porto healthily (for now)

    i'll take some faszholz -155, too. phillips is so fadable right now. i DO wanna see weigh-ins here (for many reasons) -- chief among them is to see if phillips is still soft. is this 135 as it should be?

    no strong feeling on d'alelio -150, besides the fact that i was hoping to get her as the dog like eurobooks had it...

    i need to reacquaint myself with simpson.. don't remember her well.

    and no idea who tracy is.. except to say that i will famously NOT be going big on andrea lee ever again in my life.
     
    #23
    Sadistics likes this.
  4. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    3,109
    Likes Received:
    2,601
    Location:
    Sewers
    going through a truly miserable experience of tape studying phillips/kelly.
     
    #24
  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    2u porto +165

    1.55u faszholz -155
     
    #25
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
  6. Xenophon Hendrix White Belt

    Xenophon Hendrix
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2017
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    28
    3.5 units Agniezka Niedzwiedz -175
     
    #26
  7. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    365
    Likes Received:
    203
    gonna be huge on porto. i cap her as fav
     
    #27
  8. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    365
    Likes Received:
    203
    how long behind are bookmaker usually with releasing odds?
     
    #28
  9. Joseph Budden GTM Gym, Tan, Make #Elite Bets

    Joseph Budden
    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    20,634
    Likes Received:
    15,098
    Location:
    NJ
    Fasholz vs Phillips is the most trashfire fight of all time. I'm literally getting pissed just thinking about watching it.

    With that said, I'm very ok with playing Phillips +145. She will be stronger and more physical, she just has to get the clinch. Round 1 vs Raqi was a coin flip due to her physicality so I don't see how fasholz avoids some serious hugging in the clinch. Worth a shot at the price
     
    #29
    ChoKuRei and TheOneTrueKing like this.
  10. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    365
    Likes Received:
    203
    i really misjudged this line. i bet porto at 1.87
     
    #30
  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    dude i'm shocked she opened +165. so much more experienced, stronger.. she slows down a bit in rd 4/5 but that is irrelevent here..

    i think it's gonna end up a very close decision when the final bell ends at rd 3. dog or pass.
     
    #31
    TheOneTrueKing likes this.
  12. Xenophon Hendrix White Belt

    Xenophon Hendrix
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2017
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    28
    The reason I made my bet, and I'm a beginner, so take everything I say with lots of salt, is that Niedzwiedz looks visibly all-around faster. She's aggressive and has a killer instinct.
     
    #32
  13. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    365
    Likes Received:
    203
    while very improved i still dont like neidz standup. i think porto wins the striking. my main concern is neidz takedowns., neidz takedown have looked good with nice timing but the quality of opposition has been so low. portos takedown defence is far better here. also feel she can get her own takedown when neidz rushes in.
     
    #33
  14. Xuh Black Belt

    Xuh
    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2002
    Messages:
    6,015
    Likes Received:
    5,442
    Location:
    Oxford, England
    This is quite a big step up in competition for her though, so it's hard to be too confident IMO
    I think she looks like a good fighter but you can't trust how good someone moving up the ranks really is until after they pass some tests and this is her first major test. Porto has way more experience, and fought way better competition with mixed results (i.e. some good results).

    maybe I should rewatch some past fights but my memory says Niedz actually kinda plodding and doesn't mind getting hit, which could be an issue coz Porto got that Brazilian roid strength and good kicks.
    Porto also got that Brazilian roid cardio but that's not such a problem in only 3 rounds.

    Fan-wise I'd like to see Niedzwiedz take her down and grapple her (she showed a very nice shot before and Porto is vunerable to grappling, but mostly as the fight wears on) but bet-wise I'd take Porto at those odds (but not too big either, like 1-2u if she doesn't drop much when it hits UK books). But I like Niedzwiedz so I kinda hope you win anyway ;)

    I also wanted them to put a line for the vanSoest/Ferea fight, guess that's unlikely :(
     
    #34
    ChoKuRei and TheOneTrueKing like this.
  15. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    i really think this is gonna come down to a split decision type of deal with niedzwiedz-porto.

    porto has big experience edge, physically stronger for sure... niedzwiedz has better volume and might be a little faster.. but i think she's gonna get muscled around a bit in the clinch and i expect porto to back her up more when she lands

    it's gonna be a case of what do the 3 judges prefer.
     
    #35
  16. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    365
    Likes Received:
    203
    i see her as plodding and hittable too. gonna be kicked a lot as well. low and poss high
     
    #36
  17. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    33,869
    Likes Received:
    12,376
    Location:
    philly
    i'm actually doing a small bet on roxy. +140.

    d'alelio is a good grappler. but that's roxy's forte, too, she can obviously hold her own there.. and on the feet, roxy actually should outpoint her pretty cleanly..
     
    #37
    TheOneTrueKing likes this.
  18. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    LEMONZEST
    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    3,060
    Likes Received:
    1,983
    Yeah Roxy is so gritty. She can always make a fight close so getting her as a dog is an ok play IMO.

    Even come r3 she just keeps truckin.
     
    #38
  19. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    3,109
    Likes Received:
    2,601
    Location:
    Sewers
    i'm kind of inclined to agree, kelly has the better skillset but she has horrible fight iq and is grindable. phillips could win a horrifically ugly dec here.
     
    #39
    Tony J and Joseph Budden like this.
  20. Joseph Budden GTM Gym, Tan, Make #Elite Bets

    Joseph Budden
    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    20,634
    Likes Received:
    15,098
    Location:
    NJ
    Lol @ Fasholz -215
     
    #40
    Tony J likes this.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"