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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 8, 2017.
Cmon 5d I want some of the above...
Maxed the Unibet line on d'Alelio (limit: £14.22 )
and Faszholz (limit: £31.85 )
Tiburcio: too steep
Lee: too steep (haven't seen her opponent but 1.25 is always too low with Lee's low IQ)
Porto vs Needz-weedz: Wanna wait see what the Yanqi book does
Invicta FC 23: Porto vs. Niedzwiedz
MAY 20, 2017
Scottish Rite Temple | Kansas City, Missouri
Vanessa Porto +165
Agnieszka Niedzwiedz -215
Roxanne Modafferi +110
Sarah D'Alelio -150
Tessa Simpson +140
Herica Tiburcio -180
Elizabeth Phillips +115
Kelly Faszholz -155
Liz Tracy +435
Andrea Lee -705
WHOA. i was expecting to play niedzwiedz as a small dog hre, -215 opener!? looks like i'm on porto healthily (for now)
i'll take some faszholz -155, too. phillips is so fadable right now. i DO wanna see weigh-ins here (for many reasons) -- chief among them is to see if phillips is still soft. is this 135 as it should be?
no strong feeling on d'alelio -150, besides the fact that i was hoping to get her as the dog like eurobooks had it...
i need to reacquaint myself with simpson.. don't remember her well.
and no idea who tracy is.. except to say that i will famously NOT be going big on andrea lee ever again in my life.
going through a truly miserable experience of tape studying phillips/kelly.
2u porto +165
1.55u faszholz -155
3.5 units Agniezka Niedzwiedz -175
gonna be huge on porto. i cap her as fav
how long behind are bookmaker usually with releasing odds?
Fasholz vs Phillips is the most trashfire fight of all time. I'm literally getting pissed just thinking about watching it.
With that said, I'm very ok with playing Phillips +145. She will be stronger and more physical, she just has to get the clinch. Round 1 vs Raqi was a coin flip due to her physicality so I don't see how fasholz avoids some serious hugging in the clinch. Worth a shot at the price
i really misjudged this line. i bet porto at 1.87
dude i'm shocked she opened +165. so much more experienced, stronger.. she slows down a bit in rd 4/5 but that is irrelevent here..
i think it's gonna end up a very close decision when the final bell ends at rd 3. dog or pass.
The reason I made my bet, and I'm a beginner, so take everything I say with lots of salt, is that Niedzwiedz looks visibly all-around faster. She's aggressive and has a killer instinct.
while very improved i still dont like neidz standup. i think porto wins the striking. my main concern is neidz takedowns., neidz takedown have looked good with nice timing but the quality of opposition has been so low. portos takedown defence is far better here. also feel she can get her own takedown when neidz rushes in.
This is quite a big step up in competition for her though, so it's hard to be too confident IMO
I think she looks like a good fighter but you can't trust how good someone moving up the ranks really is until after they pass some tests and this is her first major test. Porto has way more experience, and fought way better competition with mixed results (i.e. some good results).
maybe I should rewatch some past fights but my memory says Niedz actually kinda plodding and doesn't mind getting hit, which could be an issue coz Porto got that Brazilian roid strength and good kicks.
Porto also got that Brazilian roid cardio but that's not such a problem in only 3 rounds.
Fan-wise I'd like to see Niedzwiedz take her down and grapple her (she showed a very nice shot before and Porto is vunerable to grappling, but mostly as the fight wears on) but bet-wise I'd take Porto at those odds (but not too big either, like 1-2u if she doesn't drop much when it hits UK books). But I like Niedzwiedz so I kinda hope you win anyway
I also wanted them to put a line for the vanSoest/Ferea fight, guess that's unlikely
i really think this is gonna come down to a split decision type of deal with niedzwiedz-porto.
porto has big experience edge, physically stronger for sure... niedzwiedz has better volume and might be a little faster.. but i think she's gonna get muscled around a bit in the clinch and i expect porto to back her up more when she lands
it's gonna be a case of what do the 3 judges prefer.
i see her as plodding and hittable too. gonna be kicked a lot as well. low and poss high
i'm actually doing a small bet on roxy. +140.
d'alelio is a good grappler. but that's roxy's forte, too, she can obviously hold her own there.. and on the feet, roxy actually should outpoint her pretty cleanly..
Yeah Roxy is so gritty. She can always make a fight close so getting her as a dog is an ok play IMO.
Even come r3 she just keeps truckin.
i'm kind of inclined to agree, kelly has the better skillset but she has horrible fight iq and is grindable. phillips could win a horrifically ugly dec here.
Lol @ Fasholz -215