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I see it the same way. If it gets to the halfway point of round 3 and Conor hasn't banked at least one 10-8 round, it doesn't look good for him. I would say a mercy sub is a more likely outcome than a decision at that point - Nate Diaz's jiu-jitsu is fantastic, but IMO Conor tapped as quickly as he did because he was exhausted and knew it wasn't his night - but either way Khabib probably has it. Khabib's gas tank isn't amazing either, but he's good at maintaining offense and pressure even when he's tired, especially if he's dominating the wrestling.
Conor will turn his back towards Khabib and use RNC as a way out when he's gassed, guaranteed.
The good news is Khabib might be crazy enough to not give him that out and just keep pounding while trash talking Dana
That said first 2 rounds will be exciting as fuck, anyone who says Conor doesn't stand a chance of KTFO Khabib is completely delusional.