How is Holm such underdog vs. Harrison?!

[Kyle Stephens]

I looked at the odds for UFC 300 and nothing really jumped at me as an egregiously wrong odds... until I saw this! This fight is essentially like Holm vs. bigger, but slower Rousey who can actually shoot (sort of) a traditional takedown. Holm is in the neighbourhood of +330. For this cheap I get a proven UFC vet who has fought at the biggest stage for years and faced significantly better opposition than Harrison. These numbers make zero sense to me. And if it's really a 135lbs. bout than it's another edge for Holm. Holm isn't gonna really win purely by striking here, she fell in love into the wall and stall crap the last few years, but I reckon even this paired down version of her game is enough to make this fight much closer than the odds indicate. I don't think Harrison's submission game is crafty enough to be a threat vs. Holly. She has takedowns and some very loose control vs. girls who insists to play guard. Holly's whole style is anti-wrestle. She has her hips very far back and ready to evade or stuff any TDs. She is southpaw, as well as Kayla, which will make it even harder for Kayla to grab the near leg for her favourite takedowns. I don't know about you guys, but I think this is very good match up for Holly and as a huge underdog this warrants some attention. This screams Holly by decision to me.

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[Stat_Collector]

she's old, lost her striking capabilities. The wall and stall strategy are not by choice, her reflexes, explosiveness, and hand speed are gone. Harris will be much sharper, and she has the grappling to rag doll Holly and beat her by submission or ctrl time decision.

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

Holm is a corpse that's why.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

she's old, lost her striking capabilities. The wall and stall strategy are not by choice, her reflexes, explosiveness, and hand speed are gone. Harris will be much sharper, and she has the grappling to rag doll Holly and beat her by submission or ctrl time decision.

She didn't lost her capabilities. Sure, she's a half step slower than prime Holly. But mostly the reason she loses so much is she didn't evolve almost at all /just slapped a wall and stall on top of running face first pumping hands and the odd high kick/ and the division figured her out. I don't think you have to dig further than that. This match-up with Harrison is pretty forgiving for her. Harrison really reminds me of that early stage women mma where we have a fighter who knows one martial art and is winging it everywhere else. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Holly will win easily, just think the odds aren't right. In my book Holly should be a slight favourite or at the minimum even odds.

I don't know how I'm gonna play that one, because an earlier event we have GDR comming back vs Big Norm and the odds are as tempting as Norma's assets, to say the least.

 

[Stat_Collector]

She didn't lost her capabilities. Sure, she's a half step slower than prime Holly. But mostly the reason she loses so much is she didn't evolve almost at all /just slapped a wall and stall on top of running face first pumping hands and the odd high kick/ and the division figured her out. I don't think you have to dig further than that. This match-up with Harrison is pretty forgiving for her. Harrison really reminds me of that early stage women mma where we have a fighter who knows one martial art and is winging it everywhere else. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Holly will win easily, just think the odds aren't right. In my book Holly should be a slight favourite or at the minimum even odds.

I don't know how I'm gonna play that one, because an earlier event we have GDR comming back vs Big Norm and the odds are as tempting as Norma's assets, to say the least.

old age is something that affects striking and grappling. It's like when Souza got his armed snapped by Muniz.

this was a tough style matchup for her 10 years ago. We saw how she lost to Meisha tate, got choked.

Her sprawl game, as well as her striking defense is going to be slower and very methodical/rigid.

i wouldn't be shocked if she gets choked within 1-2 rounds, even back then this could happen.

 

[chill doggie]

I’ve never heard of old woman strength.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

this was a tough style matchup for her 10 years ago. We saw how she lost to Meisha tate, got choked.

Tate got chokes, has good wrestling shot and was significantly better (and more experienced) mma fighter than Harrison just skillwise. Harrison has judo throws and armbars which is not the same. They are more difficult to implement vs. good fighters in MMA and Holm had faced this very same game with Rousey. And yes, of course Harrison can shoot too, but it's not set up all that well (cause of her not being comfortable striking I think). This is 50/50 fight at the minimum and with reasons, not wishful thinking. You get halfdeep into tapestudy you'll come to the same conclusion.
You saw Holly got ninja choked once and you write her off, dude. She's not wandering in the octagon like Tony Ferguson out there. She's just not evolving with the times. Harrison is a fighter with a game from like a decade ago, so this is a fair fight. I'm not even mentioning the fact that Harrison never fought anybody close to Holm's level in her MMA career. That's a good step up in competition. And this fight is at 135lbs. so Harrison will be drained AF if she can make it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Tate got chokes, has good wrestling shot and was significantly better (and more experienced) mma fighter than Harrison just skillwise. Harrison has judo throws and armbars which is not the same. They are more difficult to implement vs. good fighters in MMA and Holm had faced this very same game with Rousey. And yes, of course Harrison can shoot too, but it's not set up all that well (cause of her not being comfortable striking I think). This is 50/50 fight at the minimum and with reasons, not wishful thinking. You get halfdeep into tapestudy you'll come to the same conclusion.
You saw Holly got ninja choked once and you write her off, dude. She's not wandering in the octagon like Tony Ferguson out there. She's just not evolving with the times. Harrison is a fighter with a game from like a decade ago, so this is a fair fight. I'm not even mentioning the fact that Harrison never fought anybody close to Holm's level in her MMA career. That's a good step up in competition. And this fight is at 135lbs. so Harrison will be drained AF if she can make it.

Harrison would out grapple Meisha, she lost to Ronda's grappling. Harrison would run through her. She's bigger too.

Harrison is a better grappler than Rousey and id say her top ctrl is better. Rousey lost to Holly because she thought she could box, she had success against some mma generalist. Once she neglected her judo identity , that was her undoing. Altho Holly has always had a decent tdd , maybe she could have beaten Rousey, but I think earlier version of Rousey would have gone further against Holly. Now we have a better prime judo fighter who doesn't think she's a boxer, and is bigger in size, and was a gold medalist. She has enough skills to grapple her and get a sub, or at worst a ground ctrl decision. I think it's 50/50 . I'm not writing off Holly's choke defense, but she does have a knack for getting choked in the past.

 

[mkess101]

Tate got chokes, has good wrestling shot and was significantly better (and more experienced) mma fighter than Harrison just skillwise. Harrison has judo throws and armbars which is not the same. They are more difficult to implement vs. good fighters in MMA and Holm had faced this very same game with Rousey. And yes, of course Harrison can shoot too, but it's not set up all that well (cause of her not being comfortable striking I think). This is 50/50 fight at the minimum and with reasons, not wishful thinking. You get halfdeep into tapestudy you'll come to the same conclusion.
You saw Holly got ninja choked once and you write her off, dude. She's not wandering in the octagon like Tony Ferguson out there. She's just not evolving with the times. Harrison is a fighter with a game from like a decade ago, so this is a fair fight. I'm not even mentioning the fact that Harrison never fought anybody close to Holm's level in her MMA career. That's a good step up in competition. And this fight is at 135lbs. so Harrison will be drained AF if she can make it.

I'd say the Pacheco she fought was a lot better (a LOT) than the current version of Holly. Not Holly from 6-7 years ago, this one. Especially when you consider the sheer...physicality of Pacheco (if you catch my drift).

I do agree that the weight cut is a big factor though. Kayla may well have a brutal time making 135. Hard to predict but it's absolutely possible.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Harrison would out grapple Meisha, she lost to Ronda's grappling. Harrison would run through her. She's bigger too.

Harrison is a better grappler than Rousey and id say her top ctrl is better. Rousey lost to Holly because she thought she could box, she had success against some mma generalist. Once she neglected her judo identity , that was her undoing. Altho Holly has always had a decent tdd , maybe she could have beaten Rousey, but I think earlier version of Rousey would have gone further against Holly. Now we have a better prime judo fighter who doesn't think she's a boxer, and is bigger in size, and was a gold medalist. She has enough skills to grapple her and get a sub, or at worst a ground ctrl decision. I think it's 50/50 . I'm not writing off Holly's choke defense, but she does have a knack for getting choked in the past.

Harrison being better than Miesha is laughable. She's just bigger, not better.
Ronda didn't think she's a boxer. She just had fucked up knees, couldn't really bend over for a normal takedown which left her with over the waist takedowns, which aren't that reliable. Her "striking" was totally disconnected from her wrestling. Her method of getting to you was bumrushes. That's anything but a smooth transition and any girl with a semblance of ringcraft and knowing how to deny you the clinch will make you look foolish. She did not want to box with Holly, she couldn't really grab a hold of her because Holly did her homework, knew how to not get thrown and didn't expose her hips, getting in and out quickly and cutting angles.
Holly can be chocked, chockes are easier to set up than limb submissions. And she was chocked twice in her career. Harrison's preferred subs aren't chokes. That's what I argue. I started that thread simply because of the crazy odds for Holly. I give her a slight advantage, maybe 55/45. Even if you argue it's clear 50/50, Holly is a considerable underdog and this is an automatic bet in my opinion.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Harrison being better than Miesha is laughable. She's just bigger, not better.
Ronda didn't think she's a boxer. She just had fucked up knees, couldn't really bend over for a normal takedown which left her with over the waist takedowns, which aren't that reliable. Her "striking" was totally disconnected from her wrestling. Her method of getting to you was bumrushes. That's anything but a smooth transition and any girl with a semblance of ringcraft and knowing how to deny you the clinch will make you look foolish. She did not want to box with Holly, she couldn't really grab a hold of her because Holly did her homework, knew how to not get thrown and didn't expose her hips, getting in and out quickly and cutting angles.
Holly can be chocked, chockes are easier to set up than limb submissions. And she was chocked twice in her career. Harrison's preferred subs aren't chokes. That's what I argue. I started that thread simply because of the crazy odds for Holly. I give her a slight advantage, maybe 55/45. Even if you argue it's clear 50/50, Holly is a considerable underdog and this is an automatic bet in my opinion.

she has 1 arm triangle. a rear naked choke is pretty basic, i’m sure she could pull it off.

i dunno i have it more 80/20

once Harrison gets her in a clinch and pressed up against the cage, she’s going to sweep her. I think even more the argument you made for rousey not being able to shoot helps the argument for Harrison, she has better blitz takedowns. she also is good at catching kicks and sweeping , which Holly does kick often.

good luck is all, maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@Stat_Collector good luck to you too. That's why I did this thread to see what ppl think and poke holes in my arguments. Will bet Holly small. Think I have much better underdog in GDR vs. that thicc girl in the Apex a week earlier. I don't know why but maybe fewer ppl bet girl fights and lines aren't too accurate there.

 

[Goatenstein]

I won't make a pick until I see Harrison's eye sockets at the real weigh-in.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I would not fault anyone for betting Holm here.

 

[Oblivian]

I'd argue highly that "Holly's whole style is anti-wrestling" is not true, and even if it is, it certainly isn't anti-clinch.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Holm sucks. That's why.

She is old and slow. She freezes up in fights too. She is just a wall and staller at this point. Kayla is naturally bigger and has more left in her tank.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I think Yan Xionan is a much better underdog

 

[mkess101]

I think Yan Xionan is a much better underdog

She's gonna get ragdolled the same way Lemos did imo.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I will fade Kayla. The line is wide. She’s not some big finisher. Even old holly will put up a fight

 

[Georges Hefner]

She's gonna get ragdolled the same way Lemos did imo.

She has a punchers chance and I think Weili is overrated