DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

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Dana White said on his IG Live that Season 8 of DWCS will start in:
August 2024

https://howlongagogo.com/date/2024/august/1

DWCS

Go to your unread posts here:

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...nder-series-betting-thread-mma.4301020/unread




Any and all DWCS events can go in this thread

DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/promotions/2026-dana-whites-contender-series-dwcs

https://www.betmma.tips/mma_betting_tips.php

Dana_White's_Contender_Series-logo.jpg


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DWCS

Week 1:

https://fightodds.io/odds/4723/contender-series-2023-week-1
https://www.bestfightodds.com/
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/100991-contender-series-2023-week-1
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73739

https://www.betmma.tips/free_ufc_betting_tips.php?Event=1311

Some ages are missing from Tapology, found them:
Payton Talbott age 24
Kevin Borjas age 25 .......... 5'7" height, 67 inch reach
Lucas Fernando age 26
Bogdan Grad age 27, height 5'9", 6 inches shorter height than opponent (Tom Nolan, 6'3" height, age 23, proper reach is 73.622 inches)

Leans are:
Talbott
Nolan
Dias https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/7/...oja-victor-dias-hunt-flyweight-one-by-one-ufc
Lucas Fernando (81.5 inch reach)
Kevin Szaflarski https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...2023-caio-bigfoot-machado-vs-kevin-szaflarski
 
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Has anyone got any leans leading into the first week dwcs?
Haven't done tape myself, only just realised it's on this week
 
johno said:
Has anyone got any leans leading into the first week dwcs?
Haven't done tape myself, only just realised it's on this week
Click to expand...

Kevin Borjas at his current betting line (+300) is a good play imo. The tape on Borjas is limited but based on what is out there he looks like a good athlete whose striking is increasingly better every time he fights. His hands are fast and he delivers strikes with increasingly good accuracy and power.

There is not a ton of footage of him grappling but it appeared to be a hole at the beginning of his career a few years ago. It may not be a hole anymore but if it is that would be where his opponent would find success. His opponent Victor Dias is a 32-year-old grappler with limited striking. Dias has good BJJ, but it isn’t exactly lights out and the takedowns themselves aren’t very good and often get defended. Dias trains at ATT with Alexandre Pantoja who may be in his corner, so he has no shortage of high-level training partners.

A few days ago, Borjas’s teammate Jesus Pinedo easily defended several takedowns from a D1 wrestler before knocking them out and advancing to the PFL FW tournament final. I think a similar result occurs here and Borjas knocks out Dias, who he is eight years younger than.

Borjas is definitely not a sure thing but in these spots backing youth and athleticism at 125lbs, for big plus money, is the play imo.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Kevin Borjas at his current betting line (+300) is a good play imo. The tape on Borjas is limited but based on what is out there he looks like a good athlete whose striking is increasingly better every time he fights. His hands are fast and he delivers strikes with increasingly good accuracy and power.

There is not a ton of footage of him grappling but it appeared to be a hole at the beginning of his career a few years ago. It may not be a hole anymore but if it is that would be where his opponent would find success. His opponent Victor Dias is a 32-year-old grappler with limited striking. Dias has good BJJ, but it isn’t exactly lights out and the takedowns themselves aren’t very good and often get defended. Dias trains at ATT with Alexandre Pantoja who may be in his corner, so he has no shortage of high-level training partners.

A few days ago, Borjas’s teammate Jesus Pinedo easily defended several takedowns from a D1 wrestler before knocking them out and advancing to the PFL FW tournament final. I think a similar result occurs here and Borjas knocks out Dias, who he is eight years younger than.

Borjas is definitely not a sure thing but in these spots backing youth and athleticism at 125lbs, for big plus money, is the play imo.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I'm not ultra confident on Borjas but he shouldn't be this big of a dog. He's a good striker and likes to throw out knees.

Dias can hit hard but he's not a great striker. For being a grappling-heavy fighter, he seems less dominant than he should be against subpar competition. He's a decent regional fighter, but I think he's gonna be lost if he can't impose his will here.

Also been high on Peruvian fighters in general recently. Definitely been something good going on there.
 
Talbott has hype behind him but idk how I feel about him. Looks pretty unpolished and sloppy, but throws volume. Somehow still doesn't have a first round finish even including his amateur fights lol. Will have size advantage though. Cortez has been somewhat disappointing but I think he might be the better fighter.

Almeida is a high-level kickboxer who had a win over Alex Pereira. Fernando is legit but he's primarily a striker, almost always avoids grappling exchanges in general. So this might actually be more interesting than it seems. Still wouldn't be surprised to see Fernando win on the feet though in an MMA style fight, his striking looks very good.
 
rev0lver said:
Talbott has hype behind him but idk how I feel about him. Looks pretty unpolished and sloppy, but throws volume. Somehow still doesn't have a first round finish even including his amateur fights lol. Will have size advantage though. Cortez has been somewhat disappointing but I think he might be the better fighter.

Almeida is a high-level kickboxer who had a win over Alex Pereira. Fernando is legit but he's primarily a striker, almost always avoids grappling exchanges in general. So this might actually be more interesting than it seems. Still wouldn't be surprised to see Fernando win on the feet though in an MMA style fight, his striking looks very good.
Click to expand...
Fernando is -300
Your capping reads as though lines should be flipped?
 
burge13 said:
Fernando is -300
Your capping reads as though lines should be flipped?
Click to expand...

It's because it's MMA, and Almeida is a transitioning kickboxer who's only KO'd a couple cans. Fernando should probably be the favorite, but if it ends up being a pure striking match, Almeida has his chance.
 
Taped the other fights. Both interesting.

Bogdan Grad is a dynamic striker with a grappling-heavy style, despite his amount of knockouts. Lots of top-heavy pressure, fights for control and gnp over submissions.

Tom Nolan is an aggressive and heavy-hitting kickboxer. Has a tendency to throw out technique and go rock'em-sock'em, but still has a diverse attack. Also still really young at 23 with more potential to be seen.

It's hard to get a really strong lean on either side. Nolan will have a good height & reach advantage, but he's had mixed success in his TDD. He doesn't have the best experience and fights out of a smaller gym in Australia. However, pretty much everything I've noted here is similar to what I thought about Jack Della when I capped his DWCS fight, and look how that's gone. Grad has a really good opportunity to impose his grappling, but if he can't, I think Nolan puts his length to work here on the feet. Odds look about right, but I might take a stab on Grad and give time for Nolan to grow.

Both HW's look pretty average overall. Machado's a thin HW with decent hands. Szaflarski's pretty solid everywhere, but generally lacks aggression. Has pretty good grappling at HW though, and Machado can definitely be taken down. Think Szaflarski's a decent pick at evens or small favorite.
 
rev0lver said:
Talbott has hype behind him but idk how I feel about him. Looks pretty unpolished and sloppy, but throws volume. Somehow still doesn't have a first round finish even including his amateur fights lol. Will have size advantage though. Cortez has been somewhat disappointing but I think he might be the better fighter.
Click to expand...

Talbott breaks opponents with pressure and pace he isn't trying to knock his opponents out with a singular blow which is probably why he doesn't get them out of there in the first round. If Cortez allows Talbott to walk him down and pressure him, as he allowed Christian Rodriguez to do on his last DWCS stint, it seems pretty likely Talbott is eventually going to knock him out.

Talbott has also fought better competition (Billy Brand, Abdikabyl Kaldar, Christhian Rivas) and finished them all whereas Cortez is going to decision, and in some cases losing, to cans on the regional scene.

I think Cortez's abilities are being overestimated because he has a sibling in the UFC and didn't get totally outclassed by Christian Rodriguez despite losing a clear decision; 30-27 (x3).

Favorite or pass imo.
 
Talbott is a pretty interesting prospect. Throws a lot of volume can take a shot has a great frame and a good gastank.
He could be really good. He has some grappling holes and he gets hit flash a lot but it doesn't really deter him from going forward, I like him here at -150.
 
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Grad +135
Szaflarski -180
Talbott -151
Borjas +280


Grad looks to be a competent aggressive wrestler on tape.

Szaflarski is a big boy who is confident in his jab, fighting an absolute can crusher.

Talbott giving off serious Sean O'Malley vibes. He got put in some bad positions in his last fight, but he's got future star written all over him.

Dias is a very skilled BJJ guy who is a bit too confident in his guard. Easy to imagine him pulling guard and taking damage.
 
rev0lver said:
It's because it's MMA, and Almeida is a transitioning kickboxer who's only KO'd a couple cans. Fernando should probably be the favorite, but if it ends up being a pure striking match, Almeida has his chance.
Click to expand...

Caesar almeida is a very good kickboxer,he should be your current glory middle weight champ if he wasnt robbed against donavan wise in his last glory fight
 
Wiki capping and noticed Renzo Mendez fought two guys on this card.
Beat Kevin Borjas at 139lbs and lost to Bogdan Grad at 155lbs

I'm just hoping for live betting this card.
 
Szaflarski looks like he carries a bit more fat than he should. Doesn't appear to have much power, yet the line is moving a fair bit. I'm not sure why there people are playing him tbh, not at his current price anyway
 
Dana White Contender Series 2023: Week 1 Prediction

Payton Talbott (5-0) Vs Reyes Cortez (7-2)

First off let me just say I am very excited for the return of Contender Series.

Payton Talbott has a lot of hype around him being undefeated with a remarkable 100% finish rate. His last 3 fights have been in Urijah Faber's A1 combat promotion.

He has drawn numerous comparisons to Sean O'Malley due to his exceptional striking skills and similar physical attributes.

Reyes Cortez fought on the contender series in 2021 losing to Christian Rodriguez, who now holds a UFC record of 2-1.

It's worth noting that neither competitor has ever been stopped.

Talbott has demonstrated his ability to maintain power even as a fight progresses, displaying his lack of fear when it comes to engaging in a dog fight.

Cortez has a well rounded game and will probably look to mix in some takedowns and control time to win the fight.

I believe Talbott has the striking edge and will find the chin of Cortez to finish him and keep his 100% finish rate.

Pick: Payton Talbott ML (-145)
 
Yeah, reconsidered Talbott-Cortez. I think Talbott still has a lot to work on, but I don't think Cortez is very good and it's kind of being set up for Talbott to get his shot. He's got a lot of qualities the UFC likes.

$10 Borjas-Talbott-Grad-Szaflarski
$50 Talbott-Szaflarski

Can't pull a trigger on Fernando-Almeida. I think Fernando is an incredible striker and want to see him win. But he really is a standup fighter, and Almeida's one of the best kickboxers in the world in his weight class.

Really excited DWCS is back, but sucks that I can't see anything to be super confident about this first week.
 
Dias/Borjas-UN 1.5 -115 for 100
Talbott-145 for 100
Machado/Szfaflarski-UN 2.5-180 for 100
Nolan-155 for 100
Fernado/Almedia-UN 1.5-110 for 100

Its my day off so at the casino didnt do any no chance MMA Parlays I did do 50$ worth of MLB No chance parlays and 50$ worth of no Chance soccer parlays Soccer IDK the league its us soccer I believe men Its teams like Minnesota UTD and CF america type crap
 
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