Boxing Discussion VI
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But it's about price. I just wouldn't feel comfortable laying juice here.
The decision prop imo has value as I see it very plausible
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I got on Linares months ago when Paddy Power opened the line before it was official. Started at 1.33 (best line there's been for it as far as I'm aware) posted it in here when it was released.
I wouldn't be touching him at this price, 1.30 is as low as I'd back him but yes Linares is going to win easily and likely look every bit his price. Campbell is about 3-4 fights away from being ready for this fight, he's looked vulnerable in spots against mediocre opponents and I'm not convinced by his chin.
Massive on his ML but may play 7-12 TKO too, he should be able to break down Campbell as it goes on.
I wouldn't be touching him at this price, 1.30 is as low as I'd back him but yes Linares is going to win easily and likely look every bit his price. Campbell is about 3-4 fights away from being ready for this fight, he's looked vulnerable in spots against mediocre opponents and I'm not convinced by his chin.
Massive on his ML but may play 7-12 TKO too, he should be able to break down Campbell as it goes on.
Was in relation to your comment about his decision line btw. I think its quite likely that Linares finishes in the later rounds.
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He does give the vibe of a kid who might not take punishment well
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That's why I posted about the under. Gives u 9.5. Or could hit 7-12. But I'd be worried of an early ko if I hit 7-12
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I'd feel safer just playing the TKO line than 7-12
i dont think eddie hearn would put his olympic gold medalist in if he thought there was a good chance that he was going to get kod.
he could easily milk a few more fights on the domestic level as a ko would certainly ruin campbells marketability.
Having watched their last few fights apiece I believe Linares is a far superior boxer to Campbell. I don't see him losing unless he comes in injured or sick or makes a mistake and gets caught badly somehow. I recall Cr0w touting Linares early at a somewhat better price for what I presume is a large wager. His line around -300 is certainly better than -350 where I just bet Linares but it's not dramatically so. I'm going bigger on this bout than I usually do because I think the line is pretty good given the skill differential and because I want to, even though I prefer to be an underdog bettor most of the time. If it blows up in my face, so be it, I am a gambler and can afford to lose this much if it does happen.
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You could argue that he hasn't progressed near the level Hearn thought he would have at this stage and this fight is do or die for him in regards to Hearn promoting him. Linares easily has the ability to stop him whether Hearn believes it or not. Let's not forget that Campbell turns 30 days after the fight, he's no spring chicken. Of course he doesn't have a huge amount of miles on the clock as a pro but if he loses this he becomes significantly harder to promote.
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no doubt that linares has the offense although im sure that antonio demarco might have had something to do with eddie making this fight. both tall and long southpaws(all three linares stoppages have been due to a left punch and mitchells left hook also badly hurt linares) and jorge was nowhere near stopping antonio. i like the +187 decision because if luke can get this into the sixth round there will be +money on the linaes ko prop. antonio is also chinny and has bad skin, bruising and cutting that have lead to two stoppage losses. if he gets cut i believe that he will fight for a decision
only problem now is that if the fight is close(linares gets kd or has suffered cuts) there is no guarantee that gbp jorge gets the decision on the cards because of the public uproar on the gbp canelo draw which has turned out worse than i believed.
75-80 percent of the votes on the polls have golovkin as the winner, just 10 percent on the sherdog poll saw alvarez as the winner.
after mosleys robbery of dlh, hbo contract fighter shane lost by a wide decision to winky.
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I'm not going to overanalyse it with scorecards etc, for me it's simply a case of Linares being world level and Campbell not being as well as styles. Campbell has suspect defence and chin. Twice he's been dropped by accurate shots from orthodox guys, all respect to Mendy but he's no power puncher but he was snapping Campbell's head back a lot. Linares is accurate and fast and has some sneaky shots that you don't see coming, the uppercut in the Crolla 2 fight a prime example. I'm on his ML so a decision or tko has no effect on me but if I do decide to play a prop it'll be TKO.
How many units do you have on Linares? 14u in my case is a massive wager compared to my usual action.
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I don't really bet in units but close to 2.5k overall. Feel more confident in this than Garcia vs Broner. Hoping some late money comes in on Campbell so I can unload more on Linares at around 1.3 but doubt it'll happen. The late money on Broner was a blessing to unload more on Garcia.
going from bad to possibly worse.
http://fightnews.com/parker-fury-gets-new-ref-another-brit/5234
there is a chance that all three judges and the ref are going to be UK
http://fightnews.com/parker-fury-gets-new-ref-another-brit/5234
there is a chance that all three judges and the ref are going to be UK
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Very much doubt it will be 3 judges from the UK, that isn't standard policy. The BBBoC have already commented on this. Especially with all the complaints.
"Our standard policy is to have a British referee, a British judge, an official from the country where the boxer is coming from and another from a neutral country [on the judging panel]"
"Our standard policy is to have a British referee, a British judge, an official from the country where the boxer is coming from and another from a neutral country [on the judging panel]"
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jesse hart +350
hes wide and somewhat sloppy but what he lacks in technique his power might compensate. and imo gilbertos biggest quality, output, decreased against abraham as if he was concerened about aa's power. also, hart is promoted by top rank and i dont think that there are going to be any robberies or bad decisions this weekend after the canelo debacle even though gilberto is the house fighter. there might be a chance to live bet in case hart shares his dads weak punch resistance
hughie fury +120
i think parker fights conservatively the first half of the bout in the hopes of taking out hughie later in the fight if fury gasses like he appeared to do in the kassi fight. hopefully there will be an opportunity to free roll sometime in the fifth or sixth round
hes wide and somewhat sloppy but what he lacks in technique his power might compensate. and imo gilbertos biggest quality, output, decreased against abraham as if he was concerened about aa's power. also, hart is promoted by top rank and i dont think that there are going to be any robberies or bad decisions this weekend after the canelo debacle even though gilberto is the house fighter. there might be a chance to live bet in case hart shares his dads weak punch resistance
hughie fury +120
i think parker fights conservatively the first half of the bout in the hopes of taking out hughie later in the fight if fury gasses like he appeared to do in the kassi fight. hopefully there will be an opportunity to free roll sometime in the fifth or sixth round
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