Betting Questions

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 4, 2016.

  1. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    So I have an issue with betting and psychology.I loss ony bets and then I lose a passion of mma fan.I feel that despite spending many years watching, betting predicting I feel like a fucking moron.It's hard to me to watch without betting, it's like I want to make money this way and prove something.Anyone any advice?
     
  2. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    If this is spilling over into your day to day and affecting things like your job, school, relationship with your significant other, or family, then you should probably take a good, long break. And if it is affecting you financially, then you may need to admit you have an issue and speak with a professional or open up to someone you really trust.

    There are some of us on here who use extremely small bankrolls and wager $1/$2 per, or max $5/$10, per bet. This is what I do. It keeps me engaged but if I lose a 5U/10U bet, whatever, insignificant beer money lost. And if I win? Cool, beer money! Maybe this is an idea for you.

    Betting is risk. Risk means that you will get an adrenaline or dopamine release in your brain and you can become dependant on this. That doesn't mean you're a moron or that something is wrong with you. You are just a human animal. But that doesn't mean you should let yourself feel bad. Reflect hard and really ask yourself if this is how you want to spend your free time.
     
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  3. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    I mean I'mlosing a joy from watching mma.I think I'm moron, because I spent a lot of my life watching mma, reading things related to mma, watching etc. and I can't bet properly, predict, this is one of the reasons I think I'm moron.Well I'm actually betting pretty much a beer money
     
  4. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Green Belt

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    Basically you are not just predicting fights, but trying to predict them better than average betting dollar. That includes people doing this professionally and other people buying servises of those pro-bettors. Lots of money is involved, so it’s hard to be a winning bettor even if it’s your passion. Maybe that is even the problem, betting as a mma fan. I find it much easier to bet fights I’m not passionate about. These days I usually bet main events very small and pick my spots on the undercard.
     
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  5. BarArm

    BarArm White Belt

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    What is the maximum time of how far into the future events you guys bet? For example the Ferguson vs Khabib matchup is on the 8th of April which is 73 days from today ( I grabbed Khabib -200, no analysis just gut feeling that lines will only get worse for him). Now I get really excited when the lines come out and pretty much want to bet instantly (provided there is a line I like). Problem with this comes that funds get stuck for a somewhat fairly long time. For now I think I will only do small bets for events far into the future and add if it gets closer to event.

    Anyways was just wondering whats yours all thinking about this.

    edit. Also got a good line on Holloway vs Edgar when lines opened a week or smth ago , but that event is even further into the future, ~100 days from the time I made the bet.
     
  6. chemmy

    chemmy Blue Belt

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    If having your funds tied up for months causes you to have problems placing reasonably sized current bets then you may be better off waiting until closer to fight time, unless you are worried about significant line movement. Look at it as an investment in line movement. Is the potential edge you'll gain on price-point worth having a portion of your bankroll unavailable for a while?
     
  7. theantso

    theantso Blue Belt

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    Hey guys,

    I´m curious, what kind of research/prep do you do before you make your bets? And how much do you usually do? I´ve heard of people just looking at the card, and other people spending 40+ hours a week on it like a fulltime job watching every fight of a fighter and interviews etc.

    What kind of stuff do you recommend to do? And how much?
     
  8. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I typed a version of these guidelines up once and updated it a little just now.

    1- Watch every fight on every UFC card without exception routinely to build up an inventory of experience and memory of every fighter. Also watch every fight on a lot of other MMA promotions' cards regularly to get to know other fighters and prospects. These include Bellator, LFA, Invicta FC, Titan FC, PFL, Cage Warriors, ACB and others.

    2- Check each fighter's fight history on Sherdog, Wikipedia & Tapology for the upcoming cards. Compare their height, weight, records, their stances (orthodox vs southpaw), reach and other factors

    3- Watch the line movement on BestFightOdds.com multiple times per day in the days before the fights to see when lines and props are released and anticipate line movement to get the best prices and take advantage of free rolls.

    4- Listen/watch multiple MMA shows and betting podcasts about the fight card in the days before the fights to see what some other experts and bettors think about the fights and where the value bets are and why.

    5- Read & participate on multiple online forums where MMA and especially betting is discussed to see what other handicappers and bettors think and see how they bet and arrange their action and why.

    6- Use multiple sportsbooks to get the best lines and props, not just one sportsbook.

    7- Watch the early weigh-ins live every time to see how the fighters look on the scale in terms of muscularity and body fat and energy levels compared to previous weigh-ins and if anyone has missed weight. Also how they react to each other in the face off and take note of any size difference. And watch the ceremonial weigh-in later to see how they re-hydrated. Also watch interviews, open workouts or at least summaries of them to see what fighters are saying
    as they often drop important positive or negative information abut their state of mind or physical condition.

    8- Look for value on each fight with a mix of favorites and underdogs and on a combination of moneylines, over/unders, props and special prop bets on every card. Some fights you might only want to bet the moneyline and with others you might bet a moneyline and a prop at a high value or alternatively, choose only an over/under. Some fights you may want to skip altogether. Limit parlays to only a small percentage of your overall action.

    9- Take advantage of live betting during the fight cards to hedge losses and take advantage of good lines depending on the momentum of the fights.

    10- Track all bets and results for every card on a detailed spreadsheet and analyze your wins and losses.


    If all that sounds like too much work, save your money.
     
  9. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    While most of these suggestions are good, nothing compares to tape watch. I don't know how one can bet a significant amount of money without tape.

    For bets that I'm considering a big play on I'll watch at the very least each fighters last 3 fights and listen to any interviews I can find.

    Edit: Honestly you could skip every step listed and as long as you watch the tape, you can make an informed, calculated risk. Make sure you're paying attention to the circumstances, for example Prazeres 30-25ed Taisumov, but Taisumov was sick and his camp advised him not take the fight, Taisumov was also deducted 2 points.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2018
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  10. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    The first thing I listed was watching every fight from every card from the UFC and other major organizations so you are familiar with the fighters. If they are making their promotional debuts it does behoove one to go watch their regional fights online if you could find them.
     
  11. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Definitely, I'm just saying you can't rely on your memory of their fights. A refresher with the style match up in mind is neccessary.
     
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  12. theantso

    theantso Blue Belt

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    Thank you so so much, for the advice you gave in that step by step. I´m wondering when you said watch every fight, does that also include when doing research, where you go back and watch every fight of two fighters where you may place a bet? Or did you just mean watch every card? I´d imagine the best way is watch every fight of the the fighters, plus watching every card so you´re already ahead and have an idea and a big library of knowledge on alot of fighter and don´t have to start from scratch. Was that how you meant it?
     
  13. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Given that I have watched every UFC fight since 2005 and many others and have a good memory for it, I don't specifically go back and re-watch all the fights of the fighters that I am already familiar with in the week before a card unless there is something specific I am looking for. That would be a very time consuming and miserable experience. If one were to watch just the most recent three fights of each fighter on a card and the average fight time was only 10 minutes, you are looking at twelve hours of video study on a 12 fight card if you were to do that. It is nice to see highlights as a memory refresher however on shows that are allowed to show the footage like the video version of the Anik & Florian podcast or those UFC Breakdowns shows Dan Hardy does on UFC's YouTube.com.
     
  14. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    i only go back two years or four fights when capping a fighter at their peak , depending on age, less if a fighter has taken an inordinate amount of punishment

    a fighters fall can be very precipitous
     
  15. raubobrabo

    raubobrabo White Belt

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    Michi,głowa do góry u ciebie to było tak że za duzo wrzucales na kupon,zamiast grać single i duble
     
  16. theantso

    theantso Blue Belt

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    How about giving points for each fighter, like how good they are in grapling, striking etc, is that of any use? I heard of some doing that, or is this too silly to do?
     
  17. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    O ty chuju bobrze, nie stalkuj mnie
     
  18. Kaius

    Kaius White Belt

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    How to gamble if your banned from most bookies?

    As you can guess from the above, I've max betted too many times, taken every arbitrage opportunity I've found and made some money during last 2-3 years. Tried to do this as a profession so capped fights way before the lines are out. Coming from Scandinavia, I've had quite a set of bookies (~20+) with MMA but now I'm down to Pinnacle and Matchbook and surprisingly still Bet365.

    Having to skip out on the openers due to bans, or due to ridiculous limits (5Dimes), and especially on all props, cuts down profits badly. To the point that I'm making marginal profits..

    Ideas? Seems that there are a few heavy hitters here, would love to hear your opinions! I've narrowed my ideas down to:
    1. Stop betting and do something else
    2. Try to improve capping so that my edge is high enough to manage with matchbook and without props. Just seems that this would require an enormous stack as fewer bets -> volatility..
    3. Start to farm fake identities etc.. Would be doable at least technically (IT-guy) but really not tempted by the fuss..
     
  19. theantso

    theantso Blue Belt

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    Well shouldn´t them limiting you or banning you be illegal? I mean I know its not..but it´s just so stupid. They pray on the weak and the idiots and those who just wanna play for fun, and then does shit like that like banning or limiting...I mean its even worse than the stupid bonuses you get offered all the time. It should be fair game, otherwise don´t have a buisness..but the fact that they can just do that seems so stupid to me. That there are absolutely zero consequences for them...i mean it only encourages them to do it as they´ll see increased profits when banning or limiting winners..just seems so wrong its crazy nothing has been done about it yet..
     
  20. BarArm

    BarArm White Belt

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    4. Move to a country where you get a list of new bookies. (Kidding, but an option if willing to do anything)
     

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