I felt from the beginning that Bader was the heavy favorite (never felt the need to point it out, though I was surprised when I found out Mitrione was the favorite). King Mo or a return-to-form-Fedor were his best chances to get upset, and that for Fedor is a hit-or-miss possibility and requires two wins, so, you know... If he can beat King Mo-- who, stylistically, has more of a chance against Bader than he does against, like, Mir, Fedor, or and even Chael's equal-chance against Mo-- it should be easy pickings.
Roy Nelson's got underrated wrestling, but if he double-legged Mitrione like that, there's no way Mitrione will be able to improve his double-leg defense (so, like, timing things out enough to do the modified-cage-sprawl/pummel and be able to defend a deep single-leg in case that fails) in enough time to stop a Bader wrestle-fucking. And it's the same thing with his grappling; Roy Nelson's got a great top-game, but if he passed your guard that easily... even with a size disadvantage, Bader can very feasibly grind out a victory.
And unless Fedor returns to good form, even if he beats Mir he'll probably lose to Chael, and Chael will have to have improved ridiculously by the end of this year in order to beat Bader.
